What does that 12-20,000 figure even refer to?
There are around 3,800 women in prison in the UK, so it’s not that.
There are around 3,500 male born transitioners with GRCs so it’s not that
There are an estimated 600,000 trans people in the UK (Stonewall figures) so it’s not that.
There are around 79,000 prisoners in the male estate, so it’s not that.
1 in 50 prisoners have declared a trans identity, so that’s approx 1640 across both estates, or 1580 if the one in 50 applies to the male estate only, so it’s not that.
There are 125 official trans prisoners according to the MOJ, so it’s not that.
40% of those prisoners are held in sex offender or maximum security prisons (52), so it’s not that.
Incarcerated sex offender numbers in 2018 were 13,535 - is that it? Because there is definitely more than one transgender person convicted of serious offences against minors in that figure, off the top of my head, Carrie Cooper, Zoe Lynes, Jacinta Brooks, the anonymous 60 year old that took the NHS to the high court to try and get genital surgery funded. Karen White had previous convictions for sexual offences against a primary age child...
The TranscrimeUK website is sure to have more, should anyone fancy a gander. Of course, we know little of those who transition after being convicted, unless they hit the news due to an appeal or reoffending under the new name after release. I call this POGD (Prison Onset Gender Dysphoria).
Men who commit sexual offences against children are at risk of violence from other male prisoners, so identifying as transgender and applying for a transfer to a facility for women makes perfect sense as a survival strategy. It’s up to the prison system to ensure it isn’t ‘gamed’ in this way, but top down policies recommended by Stonewall and lapped up by naive politicians such as Lisa Nandy make their job harder than it needs to be.
5 child rapists in a male prison estate of 79,000 is a drop in the ocean. 5 child rapists in the female estate of under 4,000 is a much more significant number, and the female estate isn’t designed for their needs anyway.
Much better to keep them on vulnerable prisoner wings in the male estate. More efficient. Appropriately trained staff.