Poll: 52% of people consider a person who was born male and has male genitalia but identifies as a woman to be a man

[TigerDrankAllTheWaterInTheTap]

twitter.com/helenstaniland/status/1055128928174641153

Interesting results. It's a properly conducted opinion poll which Helen Staniland crowdfunded. I've got to go in a minute so can't post all the headline findings. Maybe somebody else could do that?

I think the large "don't know" is VERY interesting- I suspect a lot of these are the group who want to be nice and do the right thing but it doesn't really sound right group of peeps

On a brief glance that survey is really interesting - it seems like the more philosophical questions (is this person a woman are a man) attract a large number of don't knows.

Where a concrete example is given (should a transwoman compete in women's sports) people are a lot more certain in their "no".

Firstly, for everyone reading - it's axiomatic of polling that the "don't knows" when pushed or when eventually make a decision fall pretty much into line with the proportion of yeses and the nos.

Whoops. Pressed send too soon!

I'm not surprised by these figures. I predicted that the proportion of positive support for the transactivist agenda would decrease.

So far:

Panelbase via Wings Over Scotland: 25% support for self-ID

a few months later

YouGov via Pink News: 18%

a few months later

Populus via crowdfunding: 13%

There was never large popular support for demedicalising the GRC process and the support there was has fallen like a stone. I doubt if we're at the floor even now.

I think the large number of Don't Know's is because most people are oblivious to the trans debate.

An opinion poll like this can only serve to reveal gaps in our science and sociology education

My god! An actual survey, with actual cross breaks published for each individual question! Is this... could it be... genuine research?

It is so refreshing to read something like this, rather than a nebulous "99% of people believe trans women have rights, therefore we can do whatever we want."

I think surveys on this subject should offer four options to more fully reflect public opinion:
(a) Yes
(b) No
(c) Don’t know
(d) WTF?!?!

An opinion poll like this can only serve to reveal gaps in our science and sociology education

Maybe they should through in a few biology questions so we can correlate the answers against knowledge of the subject.

I’m pretty sure belief that transwomen are women would correlate highly with the belief you can turn barley into wheat by reading Das Capital to it.

From those results it seems that most blokes are on your side of the argument.

"it's axiomatic of polling that the "don't knows" when pushed or when eventually make a decision fall pretty much into line with the proportion of yeses and the nos."

Indeed, when you see headline poll results for "who would you vote for", they always exclude dontknows, so if a third said they didn't know, 25% becomes 38%, for example. But with non-election questions this is less common. Still, sometimes you will read "x% of those who expressed a view". Eg question 1's 64% can also be described as 80% of those who expressed a view.

Indeed, when you see headline poll results for "who would you vote for", they always exclude dontknows, so if a third said they didn't know, 25% becomes 38%, for example. But with non-election questions this is less common. Still, sometimes you will read "x% of those who expressed a view". Eg question 1's 64% can also be described as 80% of those who expressed a view.

Exactly.

From that poll,
13% agree with self-id for passports and birth certificates
19% of people consider a person who was born male and has male genitalia but identifies as a woman to be a woman.
13% think a person who was born male and has male genitalia but identifies as a woman should be able to compete in women's sports.
14% think a person who was born male and has male genitalia but identifies as a woman should be free to use female changing rooms
12% think a person who was born male and has male genitalia but identifies as a woman should be incarcerated in a women's prison

There really doesn't seem to be a lot of support for TWAW

It would be interesting to see how different this would be (if at all) with a larger sample size, as this survey only represents round about 0.003% (ish) of the population. Fascinating results though!

I also agree with AspieAndProud insofar as having some kind of biology questions thrown in.

59% of people believe someone born male with male genitalia but identifying as a woman should not be free to use female changing rooms where women/girls may be undressing/showering 14% of people believe that they should be free to use them 24% don’t know, 4% prefer not to say.

I'm curious about the 4%. It's an anonymous poll that they wanted to take because they wanted to share their opinion -- so what's the point of being coy? I would guess those are the wokest of the woke, who find it very painful to admit that they don't believe a word of the trans ideology.

There was never large popular support for demedicalising the GRC process and the support there was has fallen like a stone. I doubt if we're at the floor even now.

Good to know, thanks Lang. I am surprised that the number of people in this survey wanting males out of woman-only space is not higher, tho. Anybody know when this poll was conducted? The Times had a rate of almost 90% who wanted males out.

Anybody know when this poll was conducted?

This week. Helen crowdfunded for it a couple of weeks ago.

It's professional representative polling - not a self selecting newspaper audience. Populus will have ensured all demographics - age, sex, region etc, were proportionally represented.

hamster000 a poll only needs 2,000 people to give an accurate picture if properly weighted. Of course there is a margin of error but adding a lot of extra people would only add marginally to the accuracy.
The really important thing is weighting. If a poll has millions of respondents it could still be wildly inaccurate if unweighted.
See ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9805

I suspect the numbers, when put into age categories, would reflect the higher Times percentage in the older respondents.

a poll only needs 2,000 people to give an accurate picture if properly weighted

Yes. This is the third of only three proper professional polls done via proper professional polling companies that have tested self-ID. I posted the results for demedicalising the GRC process above. We've gone from 25% to 18% to 13% in under a year.

This is exactly the same polling methodology used for election predictions, for example.

The ‘don’t knows’ hover round the 20-24%. The ‘prefer not to says’ are are a fairly consistent 3-4%.

My instinct on being asked something outrageous - like if I think male bodied men, including rapists, should be be incarcerated alongside women - is to wonder if I’m missing something. Nobody could possibly think that’s a good idea - am I misunderstanding the question?

I think some of the ‘don’t knows’ and ‘prefer not to says’ might be down to this.

So what polls are showing (when taken together) is that most people are supportive of trans people but consider them of their birth sex.

So if this had been the argument all along we’d all be cool.

men seem a lot clearer on what they think a woman is that women do

The results (disregarding don't knows):

Change of legal gender should require doctor's letter:
Yes/No 83%/17%

18-24: 65%/35%

" We would now like you to think about a person who was born male and has male genitalia but who identifies as a woman. In your own personal view would you consider this person to be a
woman or a man?"

Man/woman/neither: 67%/25%/8%

Women: 60%/31%/9%
18-24: 44%/49%/7%

Person with male genitalia who identify as women to compete in female sports:

Yes/No: 17%/83%
Men: 12%/88%
Women: 23%/77%
18-24: 37%/63%

People with male genitalia who identify as women to share showers with women:
Yes/no: 19%/81%
Men: 15%/85%
Women: 24%/76%
18-24: 46%/54%

Transwomen with dicks in which prison?

Male/female/neither: 61%/17%/22%

Women: 63%/20%/17%
18-24: 40%/37%/23%

TW w/dicks to perform smear tests:
Allowed/allowed if patient consents/never allowed: 12%/67%/21%

Women: 13%/69%/18%
18-24: 21%/69%/10%

So it looks like more young women think transwomen with penises should go to female prison than male. And more young (18-24) people think transwomen with penises are female than male. And more young women than not think transwomen with penises should share showers with women.

Project brainwash is working well.

Would be interested to ask this....

We would now like you to think about a person who was born male and has male genitalia but who self identifies as a woman. In your own personal view would you consider this person to be a
woman or a man?"

And

We would now like you to think about a person who was born male and has male genitalia but has a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria, has been chemically castrated, is impotent, has breasts, is on HRT and who identifies as a woman. In your own personal view would you consider this person to be a
woman or a man?"