Autism & Gender Dysphoria: No proven link

[pennydrew]

Well since the discussion that was part of another thread got removed, for some odd reason, I thought I would start a conversation on this. To clarify, when people say there is a link, they are not referring to any data or study involving diagnosed autistic people. I have checked. I have seen language like, ' autistic traits' and ' autism spectrum related issues' but nothing credible. I am very careful not to assume a genuine link exists simply because people say so. It seems to be trendy to 'identify as autistic', but that is incredibly insulting and appropriation of a poorly understood condition. My daughter gets very upset at the casual way people discuss this link as if it is real, as a way to use autism to get acceptance for something entirely different and an ideology she finds personally threatening to her own rights- both as a woman and autistic person.

Found it:

Abstract

Asch's line judgement task was used to compare the susceptibility to social influence of adults with Asperger's syndrome with that of two groups of controls one of which was matched on verbal IQ, There was no overall difference between the three groups' mean rate of conformity but in contrast to both groups of controls, the subjects with Asperger's syndrome were significantly more likely to adopt a consistently conforming or non‐conforming strategy. There were also significant differences between the groups in their interaction with the cither participants. The implications of the findings are discussed in the context of current theories of autistic social dysfunction.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1469-7610.1994.tb01214.x

AspieAndProud ah now thats interesting and makes sense based on what I know.

Do you know this study, OP?

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2904453/

I believe a statistically significant co-occurrence of GID and Autism spectrum disorders (as in this study) has been reported consistently.
I mean, one can have discussions about what can ever be proven in science (and I had many, because a widespread idea is that nothing can ever be proven, to which I say: so, helocentrism has never been proven?), but I do not quite see, how this consistent statistic correlation of GID and ASD can occur without a link?

I work for a diagnostic/ support team in one if our cities and therefore have an overview of many many autistic youngsters. In the last 4 or 5 years there has been an increase in our autistic youth (mostly but not exclusively autistic girls) identifying as trans gendered. I believe there is a strong correlation.

This does not mean that all autistic people are trans, or that all transpeople are autistic.

I once saw a study linked on here - stupidly didn't keep the reference - which found that transboys (natal girls) were 28 times more likely than the "base rate" of girls to be on the autistic spectrum. I'd love to read that again if anyone has the link?

deepwatersolo thank you, am reading it slowly now. This is the only study like it I have seen, I skimmed it a little but this confirms that the rates are very definitely over-stated by TRA's. Also, do I understand it right so far that all children with ASD & GID in that study are males?

Wenn Lawson (trans man with autism) is on the NAS website with a page about gender dysphoria in which Wenn states about 20 percent of autistic people have gender identity issues. The statistic isn't referenced though so I am not sure where Wenn is getting it from. (Not sure what pronoun Wenn prefers hence awkward writing here!)

penny I don't think you can conclude the link is overstated. That study predates the explosion in trans referrals, 4000 percent increase for girls since 2010.

oldbirdy I have had that figure given to me also but am unsure where it comes from.

oldbirdy it is overstated in that people ( TRA'S) overstate the actual numbers- and I am using that study as an indication, although it is only one study, even using their figures what I am constantly told is much higher. Yes it predates the increase in referrals, but we should wait to see if within that increased number in girls, we also have confirmed autism.

The 40x increase is from the Tavistock clinic, I'm pretty sure.

The Tavistock is telling you there is -

Autism diagnosticians like myself are also telling you there is.

Yes there is not yet a firm set of numbers.
But the numbers don't change the reality.

And autistic women are telling OP their experiences.

This is real and it is scary. If we ignore the warning signs the effects for those teens (especially girls) will be horrific.

The funny thing here is there are definitely questions to be answered.

There is a correlation that's enough to pose them

But the ideology is trying to stop that. Which again raises questions about why.

It means that the argument that there is a correlation is suppressed by a lack of political will to follow it through. Its a research and knowledge vacuum in which ideology has been allowed to fill and thrive.

This is precisely why ideology and science are something of a bad mix.

I think its impossible to say definitely yes there is a link or what causes it or whether it's chicken or egg if it does exist. But there's also too much to discount the hypothesis as being coincidence too.

The phrase is, 'needs more research'. We should not be making the huge political decisions we are, in this vacuum. Nor encouraging young people to make such huge life changing decisions in the way they are, in the absence of this gap in knowledge.

But here we are.

Hear hear Red

It's not enough to say 'we can't discuss it because there's no research' (although there is), we have to keep discussing it to ensure there's more research.

I find it horrifying that in addition to all current existing challenges of having ASD, now one is 'supposed to be' gender dysphoric or even having to deal with the myth and stereotype of 'being' GD.

Because this is the effect of this if not chanelled properly, of which there is no evidence.

For my experience with DS for sure he is vulnerable to influence and was influenced from having no thoughts or confusion at all regarding his sexual orientation (having had two crashes on girls) to starting questioning whether he 'should' be bisexual (I understand it is not the same as trans, but my point is being influenced here) because his only semi friend was playing with the idea and because it was a fashionable, 'cool' thing to debate in the school circle. That was the only person DS had social contact with and was desperate to be friends with. But from my view point the only social contact suddenly became a potential sexual partner for casual sex. What for NT is a social discourse and an element of play, autistic DS took on face value. At the end his so called friend is not confused at all about being straight, but DS continuously apologizes for not being gay or 'bi' and is potentially vulnerable to sexual and emotional abuse from both sexes.

For me this just highlights the vulnerability of young people on the spectrum where it is possible for them to become 'confused' and even exploited by others because they are very dependent on certain relationships and take things too literally when they did not yet reach the stage in their development where they can assert their identity and 'non-conformity' vs social influences.

The reason I prefer 'correlation' to 'link' is that there may be no causal link between the two conditions.

For instance, the correlation might just be down to both conditions being more prevalent in men. Men are more likely to be diagnosed as autistic, and there are more transmen than transwomen. If you don't control for sex then you can end up with a correlation between autism and transgender that appears to be causal when the only common 'cause' is just being male.

It's like height and autism. Men are, on average, taller than women, and more likely to be diagnosed autistic. If you don't control for sex you'll find a correlation between autism and height.

I'm just using sex as an example here. There could be some other factor responsible for what appears to be a 'link'.

RedToothBrush absolutely you have my agreement with 'needs more research'. 100%. I just had another interesting talk to my teen about it.

oldbirdy sorry but as far as I can see Tavi is not using confirmed ASD. I am saying, we should be cautious about speaking about it and use words carefully. As in, in the increase of girls being referred we are seeing possible cases of ASD. We need more research. It is not possible to say more than that at the moment.

and I have never blimin said ' we can't discuss it'. Lady, you really need to stop putting words in other peoples mouths. I said, we have to be careful of the language and wait for more research before we state this as a fact.

AspieAndProud thank you! you have articulated that so well and it is exactly how I feel about it.

'No proven link' is a phrase that I find a bit of an ugly beast.

It can be a bit like having a conversation where someone constantly goes 'Well prove it then' in a passive aggressive manner, often knowing full well that it's not something that could be reasonably proved.

That doesn't mean something can also be disproved either though.

This is where understanding the principles of research are important.

If memory serves I think Ben Goldacre talks about this when he talks about bad science.

It never fails to surprise how many scientists don't understand this and more generally how few people really know the difference between causation and correlation.

The point for me is there are explicit and clear questions that arise out of what we do know, but no one is adequately able to either prove nor disprove the theories at this stage. And no one has yet explored these questions fully

It's true that there are somethings we can not definitely prove nor disprove, but we make a judgement on the balance of the evidence available to us. But we are certainly not at this point yet, as there are lots of avenues (questions) that we know about that haven't been properly explored.

If anything, on the balance of what we do know, the advice should be to urge caution precisely because there does seem to be a correlation we haven't fully explained. Cos that's what you do in the absence of knowledge.

At the moment the position is there is some evidence which points us in the direction of a correlation which is unexplained, we should therefore proceed with caution, bearing it in mind and asking the question throughout the process.

The problem comes when you are told you can't ask that question. That's ideological interference.

And as ever safeguarding principles always come first. And safeguarding requires constant asking of questions.

Nobody has said it's a fact though. You are arguing against a position that nobody on this thread has expressed.

It doesn't need to be proven to warrant discussion, that's my position. I can't see how that's controversial or why I'm pissing you off so much. I can't do flowery language.

penny, as I read it (I only skimmed) they started with boys and girls and then identified from those about 200 or so about 7 children, one of them a girl, and 9 asokescents, 3 of them girls, that they had co-occurrence of ASD and GID.

Apparently that then means a statistically significant co-occurrence. But, yeah, it does not mean that it always / mostly goes together. It looks like an ‚elevated risk‘ if you will.

I am actually surprised that TRAs of all people stress this correlation. After all, this should be a reason for caution when it comes to transitioning ASD people, no?

Michele Moore's chapter in the book she co-edited with Heather Brunskell-Evans presents an excellent analysis of the links between autistic and trans theory and activism.

Is that addressed at me?

I'm not arguing with anyone. Nor am I agreeing with anyone. I'm expressing with caveats and qualification about the role of research and how we should be careful over gaps in knowledge.

Regardless of whether you lean towards or away from an opinion on this particular subject.

The point is precisely to remove assumptions and opinions and step backward from the temptation to do so.

Just learn to ask the risk questions and employ safeguarding principles.