Storm Ciarán

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

thank you - I am hoping school will put out a message about it and let us know what the situation is and if we can leave it until later - I'm not even sure if getting the bus will be a safe alternative or even if buses will be on!

So middle son is at college Wednesday & Thursday & it's an hours bus journey away in North Cornwall. Might keep him off.

That said, this little bit of coast is awful for forecasts. We've been under plenty of warnings only to have a standard mild day whilst a mile inland is deluged.

I'm not ashamed to admit I love a good storm so quite often feel cheated & get a bit stroppy.

Falmouth here! we've been eyeing this storm up for a few days.

thank goodness the Met Office finally issued a weather warning for us.

Still clearing up after 4 days of flooding though!!

Really don't know what to do re DP's parents*. They're flying in to Bristol airport - supposedly - on Thursday at 1pm and he's supposed to be going up to get them. They're old and don't speak much English.

Does anyone know if the 60mph wind limit applies to flying through weather, as well as take off and landing? Bristol itself doesn't look too bad but the Channel looks terrible.

*not that I can "do" anything!

@WestwardHo1

You can fly "through" high winds, in the cruise etc, perfectly fine (e.g. you can happily sit in a 200 mph plus jet stream...), the only thing to watch out for is any associated turbulence that might make the ride a bit rough, and high winds at low altitude can make things bumpy at lower altitude.

As you say the bigger issue is crosswinds on take-off/landings (plus just to add to the complications there are sometimes even wind speed limits on some aspects of ground handling such as door opening).

FWIW it's still too early for the really meaningful aviation forecasts that cover all of Thursday

All schools have been closed on Thursday in Guernsey.

Thank you @notimagain

I'm meant to be travelling by train from the SW to London on Thursday afternoon and then back again on Friday morning. How likely is it to go ahead do you reckon?

Should you drive to work in an area with amber warning for wind?

DH has school inset on Thursday, on a normal day it's a half hour drive along country roads to a place also under the amber warning. I've said he shouldn't travel, he's only saying "let's see what they say" - meaning his school SLT.

National Rail have a list of affected railway operators: https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service-disruptions/storm-ciaran-20231030/

The met office impact grid shows a low-moderate chance of a high impact event. This means there is a reasonable risk of a high impact event, but it is not certain.

A high impact wind event is a danger to life event. Scroll to wind on https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/guides/severe-weather-advice#Wind to see possible impacts.

Decisions around travel should be based on these facts and that not only would there be a risk to yourself if the storm does end up being severe, but also the prospect of risk to others who might need to help you, should you end up in a nasty predicament.

Generally, my personal rule is if I get into trouble doing what I want to do is: would I feel like an idiot for getting into trouble, would I be making my family anxious and would I be putting others at risk when recuing me from my folly? Many activities would come under this rule in an amber warning.

@OhYouBadBadKitten yes I am in the area of the Amber warning, right on the south coast.

Do you think schools will close? I can take the day off work but then I'm not sure I want my DD to go to school either (needs to get a bus)

Thanks for all your info and knowledge

I'm in Bristol, I don't think it is predicted to be quite so bad here.

I would totally agree with this advice. We had an amber warning in the last storm. 2 miles away from home where I was working that Friday, it was just a bit blowy. Headed home and my usual route home was blocked by fallen trees and we had trees down in our garden for the first time ever. I cancelled my plans to go out that evening and battened down the hatches for the night. 2 miles away, it was just a bit of wind. It has made me really aware of how quickly and unexpectedly it could get dangerous. Our neighbours said it was like the beast from east without the snow for us but it was just a bit windy down the road.

Fellow Penwithians and other Corns, it looks as though the "exciting" bit might be about 5am on Thursday, when after the eye goes through and it switches from SE to NW. The tide has dropped down a bit from this week, but the high tide will have a lot of surge behind it, I should think, especially on the north coast. I hope people are sensible about storm watching.

That's a screenshot of possible gusts not steady wind speed.

Netweather's thoughts on the Storm ~ noting these bits here:

There still could be a slight shift further south, which would mean that northern France would see the worst of Storm Ciarán and then Britain would have a wet and windy day but not a storm hit. Today is the time to be securing homes, businesses and outdoor spaces. Maybe adapting plans? It’s definitely the time to be keeping up to date with the forecast and signing up for the Environment Agency flood alerts. On Thursday morning, check the local news, it will be better to have a few options, rather than carrying on regardless. Falling trees in the daytime would be a worrying concern and any other flying debris. Never mind the rail, ferry, and road disruption. We will see how the low develops as it undergoes explosive cyclogenesis on Wednesday and how the forecast models behave. The main areas of concern currently are Cornwall and Devon, also Somerset, south & southwest Wales, southern England into East Anglia but particularly the coastal counties.

I'm hoping schools in England may choose to close so we don't have to make a risky decision whether to take that risk or not

Am I right in thinking the forecast for Essex isn't too bad?

I'm afraid I don't know whether schools will close in England or not.

They have shut them in the Channel Islands, but they look to be right in the worst of it, with a reasonable chance of 90mph+winds.

absolutely. faced with walking to school in 72mph winds that morning I don't honestly think it is safe!

My school has just announced two days of closure

Where are you?

There is contingency planning going ahead re the storm for south coast on Thursday including looking at local risks.

I have a feeling there may be closures of public services and possibly fireworks displays called off.

just south of London, but only one road leading to the school, and many many trees along it

I saw on you tube El Nino has brought about hotter and wetter weather in northern Europe and cooler and dryer weather in southern Europe.