The Mumsnet Christmas Weather thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

An annual tradition

caveats: We are still some way off, models will chop and change. Plus I'm an amateur (with limited time) so I often get things wrong!

While I look at models, check out the Santa Shaker! www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/xmas

At the moment there are hints of a big blocking high pressure that would allow for cold in the ECMWF model. This could lead to some proper cold for Christmas.

GFS also puts a high pressure over us - introducing some fairly cold weather.

However the CFS model starts us off with mild over Christmas and then introduces cold for New Year. So it is a bit behind the party.

It is overall looking a bit of a change from recent years where we've tended to have cold running up to Christmas then bringing in raging westerlies or at least mild over Christmas. So that's something.

Oh wow what a cool thread!
No pun intended... 🌧️

Checking in!

Also checking in

Love your weather threads OYBBK, thank you.
DH and I have different weather apps on our phones and tend to ‘go’ with the forecast that suits best whatever we have planned!

Morning all :)

GFS brings us a little festive mix of snow and rain for Christmas day. Windy and cold.

CFS brings coldish temperatures. But nothing remarkable. Still colder than we are used to seeing I think at recent Christmases. It looks quite different from the charts a couple of days ago.

Let's see what happens with the models next!

I've just bought an insanely expensive puffer coat, which DP thinks I look like a larvae in. I absolutely love it but it's too warm for the mild air we've had so much of this autumn and early winter.

I'd like some bright, clear, sharp and cold weather please!

Ooh, that's sounds promising. I'd love a chillier Christmas!

Placemarking! I love this thread!

Thank you OYBBK I’ll be watching this.

Yay, the Christmas thread. And I'd forgotten all about Netweather's Santa Shaker! (20% chance of snow for the Midlands at the moment.)

Yay! Hi kitten. Love the cold. Also have a big duvet coat that makes me look like a larvae…

Love following the weather threads. A nice cold crisp Christmas would be lovely, but I'm in Glasgow so ....

GFS shows high pressure over the atlantic slipping westwards. The east remains cold and dry , west a little warmer and wet. But then allows to allow a cold flow of northerlies to introduce some snow heading southwards on Boxing Day. Sadly the model stops there.

I love this thread! And am cautiously excited about the prospects of at least some seasonally cold weather arriving in time for Christmas.

OYBBK, I hope you're ok. Maybe you've just sensibly had a weekend off MN

Hi OYBBK
I’ll be in the UK over Xmas and New year so will keep an eye on this thread!
My phone app has a very promising long range forecast for the NW

Hah yes, busy weekend :D I'll be back this afternoon to do an update.

Christmas day looks pretty cold according to GFS - temps close to zero all day. Upper air temperatures too warm though to give snow I think. Boxing day looks colder with it remaining cold after. brrrr.

ECMWF also supports a blocking high allowing temperatures to be rather cold.

Oooh, this does sound promsing! I'm not bothered about a white christmas but would love to wake up to a frosty christmas morning!

I think it's probably fairly safe to say that we aren't looking at a mild and wet Christmas.

I'd better stack some logs...

It’s so mild today down in the south west I haven’t even needed to put the fire on this evening after a week of gloves, hats, thick coats and thermals it feels so unusual!

It has been very mild. I've been working in the garden in just a jumper. It will cool down a lot gradually over the coming days.

The met office seem less bullish about proper cold than the models would suggest.

Today's festive update :

ECMWF: paints a rather interesting picture!The blocking high that we will see develop starts to breakdown and low pressures start to encroach. Surface cold as we lead into the Christmas period - with warm upper air temperatures, but then by Christmas itself deep cold from northern russia starts to establish itself with low pressures knocking on the door. (hint: deep cold and low pressures - preciptiation tends to be of the white variety) Unfortunately the model stops at Christmas day.

GFS: Tends to keep the upper air temperature cool down until Chistmas day into Boxing Day. Then wow. It throws us into deep cold. Absolutely nothing marginal about this weather chart! Not snowy over Christmas day itself, but Boxing Day it starts to bring snow down in from the NE. Into total fantasy land 928th Dec) it shows snow covering all of us.
Disclaimer GFS is always the keenest model to introduce snow and can be a total snow ramping model.

GEFS Ensembles show that surface temperatures generally trend downwards towards Christmas. After that there is a fairly broad spread of possible scenarios, but most ensemble members are chilly/cold at the surface. Slightly spoiling the party upper air temperatures are generally too warm for snow and it shows the GFS operational model to be right at the bottom end of extreme scenarios. (Summary: GFS may well be over egging things significantly)

Summary of above: High pressure seems less likely to be fully in charge over Christmas. The Atlantic tries to push back in. Models show either deep cold (snow) or less cold (yuk). It is still possible just to get cold and boring though.