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Original poster

Snow watch!

978 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/10/2018 09:19

I know it will seem quite crackers to start this when the weekend has been so lovely, but we are starting to get some model consistency on GFS for the potential for snow Friday night into Saturday as a northerly plunge looks set to take place.

Primary risk areas are obviously for hillier parts of Scotland and also Wales, but higher ground in the south and south east including over dartmoor and down the east coast may also see some sleet or wet snow.

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GloriaSmud · 28/01/2019 20:00

BestIsWest ~ apart from the odd flake tomorrow, I'm afraid you'll probably not get anything wintry this week.

mrsdolittle ~ might depend on where you are in the Cotswolds. Tomorrow, if you're high up, probably more likely to get something wintry otherwise it'll be mostly rain/sleet. Thursday night is one to watch though so worth keeping an eye on the forecast.

GloriaSmud · 28/01/2019 20:06

ScarlettDarling ~ I think you'll be OK. You might get the odd flake/sleety shower but I think your warning from the metoffice is more to do with ice tomorrow night/into Wednesday than anything of a snowy nature.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/01/2019 20:10

Scarlett don't cancel yet. Like Gloria, I think you'll be ok. There's a little kink showing that needs keeping an eye on in one of the charts though, so check again in the morning.

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Falo · 28/01/2019 20:12

Essex? PLEASE SAY SNOW

ScarlettDarling · 28/01/2019 20:14

Thanks Gloria and OYBBK, I'll not cancel anything yet! Fingers crossed for just a sleety shower.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/01/2019 20:16

I think that parts of the SE might get up to about 5cm, (high areas more) so not masses, but transport seems to fall over at the drop of a hat at the moment.

One of the big issues will be that it will start off as rain for many/most, washing away any grit.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/01/2019 20:16

Falo, you should get some, I can't promise a snow day though.

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Delatron · 28/01/2019 20:20

The met office seem to have changed our overnight snow to mainly rain now? Bucks. Think we’re still under a weather warning but I’m wondering if the path of the snow has changed? Anyway we’ll see!

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/01/2019 20:21

We need to start talking about Thursday night into Friday, which actually now looks to be the bigger event. Current primary risk area is Wales and the Midlands up into the Peak district.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/01/2019 20:22

Tomorrow I think will be a nowcasting affair.

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GloriaSmud · 28/01/2019 20:23

I'm getting that impression too, OYBBK [about Thursday night] Think there'll be some weather warnings coming out in the next day or two for that.

KickBishopBrennanUpTheArse · 28/01/2019 20:49

Any thoughts on travel from high peak into Manchester on Wednesday morning? I've got a job interview. Will the snow shield do its thing?

Thanks!

xsahm · 28/01/2019 21:52

The 21:00 run (I'm picking up all the lingo!) on the models on wxcharts seem suddenly to have picked up more snow for tomorrow night. Do you think the ground temperature / rain ahead of it will stop it accumulating or just that it's not a very big system so looks worse than it will likely be?

I'm hoping for NO disruption on Wednesday in Surrey but would love some snow Saturday!

tapdancingmum · 28/01/2019 22:46

The chap we all follow (if you live in Bucks and most of the country it seems) is saying snow tomorrow. I have told my parents that as soon as they see a snowflake thy need to come and collect their children. We got so much last week that within 30 minutes my village was shut (mainly due to the cars blocking the hills) and luckily after we had shut for the day. My preschool is in another village about a mile from my house but may as well be on the far side of the moon when it snows. I'm expecting another snow day on Wednesday ⛄ and maybe one on Thursday!

KickBishopBrennanUpTheArse · 28/01/2019 23:14

We've got snow!! Grin

Whywonttheyletmeusemyusername · 29/01/2019 06:12

Its significantly colder here this morning, than it was this time yesterday morning. They were saying snow for us - London - at 9pm tonight until tomorrow morning. ..has that now changed?? I need a snow day !!

Iwantedthatname19 · 29/01/2019 06:25

Now looks more like sleet showers and light snow this evening, then no more, in London - if I am interpreting the met forecast correctly! I'm not sure I am though - it doesn't seem to match up with the 'prepare for whiteout/travel chaos' type news stories! Perhaps it depends on the part of London.

EdWinchester · 29/01/2019 06:27

Our snow forecast seems to now be rain. Gutted.

GloriaSmud · 29/01/2019 06:47

xsahm ~ from what I can make out, although temperatures will be cold when today's precipitation arrives, it won't be cold enough in some areas. There are a lot of factors that have to be right before snow occurs so if something isn't 'right', when it comes to this system, the rain will stay as rain in some places. I don't think just because it rains first, it'll stop snow settling later; it just depends what the temperatures are like at that time and whether they fall enough (either in the air or on the ground) for it to change the rain to snow and for it to settle (our forecast is for a lot of rain now this afternoon and for a brief burst of snow from 5-7pm, so we'll see what happens and whether the conditions are right for it to settle after the rain.)

KickBishopBrennanUpTheArse ~ you might have problems if you're high up. Manchester itself should be OK.

Iwantedthatname19 ~ the models have struggled with this system and I think there'll be changes in the forecast, even today.

GloriaSmud · 29/01/2019 06:48

Apologies xsahm ~ I've just seen how very wordy that was!

Iwantedthatname19 · 29/01/2019 06:54

Thanks Gloria - and I suppose the newspapers don't update the story hourly!

If the llittle symbol on the met table says 'cloudy' or 'clear night' instead of sleet rain or snow, that suggests snow isn't expected for that hour, does it? (at the moment! I realise the forecasts may change...) wouldn't normally be so detailed in my interest, but travel in south east is planned tomorrow morning!

xsahm · 29/01/2019 06:55

I got it all, thank you! My main hopes are that tomorrow won't be a snow day but that we do have a day of snow sometime this year, ideally on a weekend. I know lots of people want snow days but I actually want to go to work tomorrow!

Oogle · 29/01/2019 06:59

I’m guessing that despite being in a “yellow zone”, the south coast will just get rain?

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/01/2019 07:32

It's hard to summarise today's risk succinctly, but it has changed quite a lot overnight.

The weather comes in earlier than forecast, starting as rain for most mid afternoon to early evening. In the south it may well stay as rain, apart from a few favoured spots. Around Oxford seems to be the dividing line, where north of Oxford it turns more readily to snow.

By rush hour this evening the midlands, especially the east looks as though it may see some heavish snow for a time. This moves into East Anglia by late evening.

By early wednesday all that is left is some light snow showers in the NW.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/01/2019 07:36

Thursday evenings precipitation looks to also come in earlier than expected. This too could be a rush hour issue for many and I think will be a more substantial event.

At the moment Thursday looks to be a south of Derby event and away from the south coast snow looks to sweep in across much of the Midland and south. In the Midlands and East Anglia this event could last through the night.

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