US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/906843778824187904
Video of a stormer chaser in Key West now.

He gets out the car and stands in the wind.

The mind boggles.

That is seriously crazy!

At the moment it's forecast to hit Tampa Bay at high tide.

Fox, in terms of the cost even those who think they have insurance might be caught out - most renters insurance doesn't cover flooding (you have to have separate insurance for that and it's costly). My grandparents don't live in a flood zone and only got flood insurance a couple of years ago at my dad's insistence (they've lived in the same house for 60 yrs). And insurance in general in Florida is very costly - every big insurer pulled out of the state following the 2004 hurricane season, when 6 hurricanes hit the state in quick succession. The only option for insurance has been through the state. It's only in the last couple of years that small start-up private insurance companies have started to offer policies. Remains to be seen if they'll be able to pay out the huge claims that will come in following Irma. There are going to be a lot of knock-on effects for long-term Florida residents.

Wow

Thank you for the storm surge explanations. I watched the empty ocean clip again. That is a lot of water, even without all the debris it will pick up.

Idiot getting swamped at Key West here (& other scary clips)

weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/huge-wave-knocks-over-spectator-in-key-west

I've been streaming Fox while having a massive cooking session. It strikes me how few reports are coming out of the Keys. That shows how serious it is, normally they would have quite a few reporters stationed there.

Update as to wherethey think it's going in a mo.

Reporters have evacuated the Keys (making space for locals in hotels, luckily)

Ok, it does look like a coast hugger. Little wobbles now are going to make all the difference. Some signs that the eye wall is starting to look a little more raggedy as it enters a region of more shear. Hopefully this is a beginning of weakening. Panhandle is certainly vulnerable now, but hopefully in a generally low population area.

Surge looks exceptionally worrying along the west coast, exetending many miles inland.

I've just seen one reporter in the Keys in a hotel. The trees behind him looked like they were really struggling - not like normal hurricane reporting.

I'm extremely worried about a friend I've known for a very long time who has hunkered down a mile or two off the coast south of Naples.

twitter.com/therealcalbert/status/906859081335533569

Some reporters are a liability.

I've just seen a report advising people to - among other things - watch out for scammers. (After this has ended, presumably.)

I’m watching on CNN. A stop sign almost hit the reporter in Miami Beach, absolutely terrifying. They still have a reporter in Key Largo, using a car battery as they lost power! I really don’t know anything about hurricanes but this thread has fascinated me! Hope your friend in Naples is ok.

It's very hard with a thread like this because while there is the meteorological aspect which really interests me and just the general fascination as to what is happening, this is of course people's lives and there will be so many who are terrified and whose lives and livelihoods are threatened.

The Washington Post have two live streams from Miami ~ (really noticed the wind increasing the last couple of hours) and (actually have someone driving around )

Thanks Gloria.

Latest forecast has the eye going 14 miles west of Tampa. This is bad news surge wise.

Key West water levels continuing to rise:
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8724580&units=standard&bdate=20170901&edate=20170911&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=

Miami seems to be getting it perhaps harder than expected. Just saw a report that they are evacuating around the giant cranes.

Gosh those levels are going up quickly now. Which, to be fair, is exactly what they said would happen.

one of the cranes has snapped. Fortunately it appears to have done so over the construction site. Thank goodness the hurricane has veered west from this point of view. Hopefully by the time it reaches the Tampa area it will have dipped some in wind speed.

OYBBK why is it that Miami, which isn't in the main storm path, is seeing the worst of the weather at the moment, or do they just have more reporters in Miami? I hope the reporter on Key Largo is ok.

Thanks Jenny, there has been a rather sensationalist report that all of Key West is under water. That doesn't seem to tally with that gauge.

MrSlant I think it is down in part to population and where the reporters are mostly. Also the winds tend to be strongest to the NE of a hurricane However, I'm not quite sure why it seems to be more severe there than we thought. I wonder if they are measuring wind speed at the top of the apartment blocks where wind speeds are higher (less drag).

Latest noaa guidance says it is now slightly east of where it was predicted to be.

Having looked at a map there doesn't appear to be anything on the other side of Florida at that level so who knows what's going on there. It looks like a very stupid place to be right now, at least the reporters in Miami appear to have somewhere right at hand to shelter.

Interesting/terrifying discussion on CNN that there are multiple reports of water going out from bays/rivers/canals and that it's giving 'false optimism' to people who think it means there won't be flooding. It sounds like it's actually going to flood back in in the wake of the hurricane, at speed. They spoke to a man an island off that coast who seemed very blase but the weather man was saying his whole island would be under water so even if he was on the second floor there would be nothing left on the island, no water, electricity, drainage. Grim. I just hope they all stay safe. People are terribly caught out by it shifting coasts.