US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

//www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

[MrSlant]

Well AFAIK see they had a 3 foot tsunami wave but the window for the possible 9 foot one is closing. There are now alerts for 1 foot high ones for islands further away, last alert is Antartica at about midnight, it's amazing how far and wide these things affect the world. So far it looks like despite it being a bigger quake than the catastrophic one in Mexico in the 90's because it was more rural areas and epicentre out to sea a lot less people will have died thank goodness. I think we'll learn more now day is breaking over there.

So, back to the hurricane. I honestly think I could never leave the house or do another thing with all the natural phenomena going on in the world. We are such tiny ants compared to what it throws at us.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Irma is cat 4 now but still extremely dangerous. Worrying for Cuba.

Projected path has jogged westwards a little, brings Miami into line possibly with the worst of the winds which tend to be in the ne quadrant of the storm. Have to pray it weakens before it gets there. Of course the projected path may change again.

[BeyondLimitsAndWhatever]

Looks like it is just about to hit holguìn now from the latest map. Winds there are "only" up to 68mph according to BBC. Hoping hatches are well battened down now and everyone safe and waiting it out :(

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

CNN say it's one of the largest evacuations in Floridas history. I hope that it goes smoothly, I know there have been problems in the past getting people out of the of hurricanes.

The news from the various Islands so far is just beyond belief.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Jose is Cat 4 (poor Leeward islands) and Katia is still strengthening.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Irma and Jose,

[MrSlant]

OYBBK (my go to genius in all things weather) is this unusual? I can't believe those poor people can't even start to get their lives back together, they have to plan what on earth they are going to do, when their homes are already ruined, in the face of another hurricane. It must be incredibly traumatic. Can we put this down to climate change or just the way the world works some times?

[cozietoesie]

40% of the gas stations in Miami are out of gas it seems.

[BiddyPop]

4,000 (of the total 7,000) national guard were called up yesterday, mainly to ensure that the gas stations on the evacuation routes got re-stocked. All 7,000 were to be called up today in Florida, according to a local reporter in Florida being interviewed on Irish radio yesterday evening.

I haven't had time to look at it today, but Tropical Storm Arlene passed over Cuba when we were there in 2005 (felt like not the worst winter storms we get here) but it was pretty blowy and the buildings are nowhere near as sturdy as we have, and very flat ground around the area we were in. So I really do feel for them with these 3 coming so close on the heels of each other.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

MrSlant it's not that unusual for a place to be hit by two tropical storms in one season. In 2004 Jeanne and Frances both hit the same area of Florida a few weeks apart. In 2005 Dennis hit Cuba twice (poor sods)
Last year TS Hermine and H Matthew both hit North Carolina.

But it is exceptionally unusual to see the situation we have at the moment with such ferocious record breaking hurricanes.

Whilst it's impossible to attribute any particular storm or storm season to climate change, this does fit in with models which suggest that hurricanes will in general become stronger due to climate change. This is simply because they obtain their energy from warm seas and the warmer the water, the more energy is available for them to grow. Coupled with rising sea levels, the impact on low level areas is going to become worse.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Biddy do you know if that's just Floridas state national guard? How on earth are they coping given the state much of Texas is in?

[cozietoesie]

I 'think' that that's Florida's Army and Airforce National Guard. I understand that all 7,000 were advised to report for duty this morning. Friday.

As to other areas? Goodness knows. Some adjoining states have their own problems - e.g. with gas.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

They have the devastating fires in the west too.

Why on earth did they not call up all the national guard as soon as they knew they were going to be ordering evacuations? I'm a bit concerned that people will end up stranded like in Rita where most deaths occurred due to the evacuation.

[BiddyPop]

The local reporter did say resources were lower than normal
Due to Texas.

But I did think it was just FL mat guard

Sorry, on phone, crowded train and in tears at birth of new kitten Keith on another thread so scuse typos

[BiddyPop]

My DB lives one canada and has seen a few too many fires recently , no close calls for him but near enough this year while holidaying and saw aftermath of devastation last year. He put photos on fb of where the extended family all stayed 3 years ago, totally devestated - we'd driven through a natonal park end route that was burned 15 years before and only starting to recover on that trip.

[cozietoesie]

This is part of a report which is now 2.5/3 hours old.

"In Georgia, at least 10% of the gas stations in Savannah and Augusta were without fuel, GasBuddy reported. Another 19% of the gas stations in Charleston, South Carolina were empty. There are also some sporadic outages in North Carolina."

[Jeanneweany]

I feel sorry for the Cubans. They cannot evacuate and have very little resources.

[BeyondLimitsAndWhatever]

Right in the middle of it now :(

[cozietoesie]

You might care to read this Newsweek piece.

Al Gore Warned

[CalmanOnSpeeddial]

The Cubans have a large island with mountains they can cross, and historically a very good track record at dealing with hurricane prep. It'll be tough for them but it's not like Barbuda which is minute and flat or Haiti which doesn't have a properly functiong state or infrastructure.

[AethelflaedsWhiteGoose]

I was caught up in hurricane Rita. Completely terrifying experience that has stayed with me. We tried to evacuate but after 12 hours realised we weren't going to make it out.
Thinking about those caught up in this current hurricane season.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's looking increasingly worrying for those trying to evacuate, with major fuel shortages and traffic jams lasting up to 20 hours according to a friend in the path.

Aethel Im sorry you went through that. It must have been very scary.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Is it me or has the forecast path jigged a little west? noaa
This is a good thing I think, from the Miami point of view anyway.

[Sleipnirthewonderhorse]

Rather hypnotic website- earth.nullschool.net
I've no idea how accurate it is.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'd forgotten about that one Slep. It's very good.