Possible severe gales on Monday 28th.

[OhYouWickedWickedWitch]

I'm keeping a pretty close eye on developments for Monday. some of the models (in particular gfs) are showing a deep low developing over England, with the majority of the gfs runs taking the worst of the wind over the south.

Massive if. But if the weather were to pan out as those models are suggesting it would be a damaging storm, especially given the trees still being in leaf. I'd keep an eye on the met office early warnings page and if they start warning about it then it would be a good weekend to tidy the garden before you lose your stuff

I'll update as things become clearer.

Latest GFS - no change. (apart from getting a weirdy double centre as it exits.)

Alcibiades - the house two down from me has similar scaffolding and I've been looking nervously at it all day. It's got a corrugated metal roof which I really hope won't be flying around our neighbourhood on Sunday night. I s'pose these scaffolders know what they're doing.......?

NAE - now looks very similar to GFS.
All the big models have similar tracks at this point. Bringing severe gales into the midlands, through the south. Storm force winds for the CI. Timings vary a little and exact track varies (which makes a big difference to where exactly the worst stuff is)

And the models show more to come in a few days. sorry guys.

hang on a few more minutes guys - I'm just going to glance around some weather boards to make sure I'm not missing anything really important and then I'll report back and try and tackle some questions.

Going to start a new thread where specific travel disruptions can end up so they don't get lost.

Where do you stand if flying debris from your neighbours damages your house? Does your insurance company go after them? Do you still have to pay your own excess even if you kept asking them to secure their stuff? My neighbour has a back yard full of scrap wood and metal. Grrr.

it's bin collection here on Monday morning (also S Herts, digerd, S Watford actually). Wonder whether they will put bins back on our paths when emptied or leave them on the pavement in full wind pickup zone...

hester I was thinking that too . We don't have a trampoline.

In 1987 it was trees, this time it'll be trampoline chaos.

travel disruption thread

lex I asked that on another thread just now. I know my insurance will deal with my stuff, but will it cover damage caused by a neighbours property?

I was looking through all the charts and next weekend looks even worse for us, I imagine that is still subject to a lot of change at this point though?

I've just stuck our location into bbc weather and it seems the strongest winds are going to be 34mph, stuck in Winchester Oxford and Greenwich and they are all roughly the same.

Has the storm changed direction and southern England is to be spared?

Just been to Sainsburys. Plenty of bread, milk and wine left on the shelves, but you couldn't find a candle for love nor money!

Due to fly into Manchester very late on Sunday night, from Spain. Forecast is calm but wet from midnight-3am, someone has suggested the wind may blow us home early - what chance of that, Kitten?

lex and meglet- it should do if they were negligent in knowing and not doing anything to prevent it. Just refusing to believe there was a risk is no excuse. But does depend on your insurers and your policy.

To summarise the met office very very very approximately at the moment (and of course this may well change!!!)

South coast - 70-80mph (especially east of the IOW) perhaps more. Peak between 3am and 6am

Southern coastal counties 60-70mph. perhaps the odd spot seeing higher depending on topgraphy. Peak between 3am and 6am.

Central England gusting to 60mph. perhaps higher. peak around 6am.

East Anglia - gusting to 70mph peak 9am

Not so sure about a sting in the tail for Lincolnshire E Yorkshire as it exits. Not really seeing that on the met office site, but its still a possibility.

captain waves, I'm in the East. Sounds like a good idea about your car, shame the pub is empty, must send Dh out to get wine. Do you have any friends you can descend on if it gets hairy?

It did get really windy today in S.Herts, but then it rained and wind stopped. So to me the signs are so, but maybe just a lull before the storm - who knows atm?

Nicestsmile - I don't really know. The jet stream would be in a good position to speed up your flight, so possibly, it just depends on whether ATC allow a flight path to make the most of it (plus if the airports are starting to prepare for issues)

The birds usually know things we don't but haven't heard them today, perhaps they have already flown to warmer climes?

digerd - the low that is forming is just a little low that hasnt really started yet and so hasnt any influence on our weather at this point. We are feeling the effects of the big low to the west of the UK. (which is sort of the mummy to the baby low thats going to be our storm)

X post -East IOW oh bugger

eatyourveg - the bbc weather page isnt very good. Also you may have picked up on mean wind speeds rather than gusts. Try for 3am and see what it says.

Hmm hospital appointment may end up cancelled if peak is 9am as we have a high sided van

Lex - you arent responsible for your neighbours stuff. If you do get an issue def hand it over to your insurance. If you do get an issue remember that many many more people also will be and the insurance companies will be set up for a lot of claims coming in.