Possible severe gales on Monday 28th.

[OhYouWickedWickedWitch]

I'm keeping a pretty close eye on developments for Monday. some of the models (in particular gfs) are showing a deep low developing over England, with the majority of the gfs runs taking the worst of the wind over the south.

Massive if. But if the weather were to pan out as those models are suggesting it would be a damaging storm, especially given the trees still being in leaf. I'd keep an eye on the met office early warnings page and if they start warning about it then it would be a good weekend to tidy the garden before you lose your stuff

I'll update as things become clearer.

Ah that's ok then.

I have a friend in Baltimore, Cork, with a charter boat. I imagine they'll be taking precautions.

Revolt, apparently it relates to wave period. If it's long period swell, then the waves will be bigger when they get to land, because the waves have more energy. If the wave period is short, then massive waves at sea are smaller when they get to land. A wave period of about 10 seconds generally equates to the same sized waves hitting the shore as they are out at sea. This is why we can get really good surf when there is absolutely no wind here, because the waves have been generated by storms hundreds or even thousands of miles out in the Atlantic. Swell which is generated closer to land creates waves which are chaotic and disorganised, but essentially contain less energy. This secondary depression we are due on Monday has only created waves fairly close to shore and also on the continental shelf. However the waves heading for the west coast of Ireland tomorrow should be rather impressive. I imagine the cliffs of Moher will be a storm watcher's paradise, and also Ireland has a shorter continental shelf than we do (which is why it has such great and fucking freezing surf). Britain's continental shelf extends out 300 miles or so.

And now I'm starting to confuse myself :). I am basically taking dictation from OceanographerHusband.

PS wave period is the amount of time between one wave crest and the next.

OYWWW - You are a star!! I wouldn't even know this storm was brewing if it wasn't for you Yes, I should probably watch the news like a grown up, but I don't!! I look at all of that and it means nothing, nada, zilch

Garden furniture brought inside, light pot plants re-located, rum water in :) Might have to buy a Hudle or something tomorrow though, the laptop wont work without mains anymore :( I'd have bought something already if I could make my bloody mind up what to buy!!

OYWWW these threads are brilliant. I posted a lot on the snow threads at the beginning of this year, and I don't think you got it wrong once for my part of the world!!!!! :)

Following with interest.

Morning all. All models show the storm. GFS and ECMWF show it as a mature storm that is not still deepening with the worst hitting most of the southern uk over daylight hours. met office have it still deepening as it hits us and have it zipping through faster. The worst is along the southern coast and into the channel (incl. Channel Islands) All show severe gales.

So what's best case scenario looking like now? I prefer daylight hours as at least we won't wake up to no electric!

We had a tornado here a few years back and the insurance company didn't believe anyone until they came out and looked and saw the path of damage!

Spooky, would be interested in hearing more about the tornado :)

It is better if it goes through at night. Fewer people out and about.
Best case I think for mainland Britain is the UKMO solution. The 70mph+ gales mostly confined to southern coastal counties. Slightly concerned about the possible squeeze of isobars around the Cheshire area as the low exits. Keep an eye on forecasts there! UKMO solution would mean that southern areas away from those coastal counties could have gusts in the 60-70mph region which isn't great but not worst case.

Perihelion
Was Hurricane Bawbag 2011 on a Monday night?

Team
You could be lucky with the ash tree as they have very long roots and flexible branches. We get lots of saplings and have to get them at 4 " high otherwise the roots are already too long and firmly embedded in the ground. Also on the list of the lesser vulnerable to storms

We had no wind last night in S. Herts, that I heard, and still none this morning. Despite the clouds racing at speed high in the sky.

OYWWW - we were planning to get the train from cornwall to paddington on Monday morning (leaving at 9am). Do you think there will be disruptions? I guess we will know more by then..

kitten should I drive London - Leeds Sunday avo instead of Monday morning as planned?

Monday will have to go Leeds - Durham

I can't find much on what Jersey (Channel Islands) can expect storm wise.

I guess we are first to see it as it's coming from the south upwards isn't it?

I can't remember what the weather was surrounding it but I will ask my dad tomorrow. He definitely remembers as it blew all his pheasants away

Thank you OYWWW. I will tidy garden, find torches, batteries, matches and candles today. I will also shop and not hire the carpet cleaner (that needs electricity) for Monday.

Blowing away pheasants Spooky?! Please don't tell me that, DH would have a breakdown if that happened!

My ds is asking, (with rather more smarmy charm and puppy dog eyes than is strictly necessary), if anyone can tell him about the weather in Whitstable tomorrow at 2.00?

Not really Ibelieve, it's coming from the sw. Channel Islands could get it severely I'm afraid. Be prepared for storm force winds.

Calma I can't say for definite but yes disruptions are possible.

Girls that would be a better safe travelling choice to make (though I do quite like to be at home looking after my property in bad weather)

Just another reminder though that weather forecasting is my hobby, I'm not a professional meteorologist. Nor am I an expert on transport disruption or horticulturalist. All I can tell you is the choices I would make. What you choose to do and your own safety is down to your own personal responsibility.

Disclaimer over :)

Curlew, after a showery morning it looks rather pleasant if rather windy!

Waiting for the updated warnings from the met office here

Whatever I may say remember that they are the professionals!

Ahem. This is all my fault

In 1987 I was camping with a group of school friends. All of us had told our parents we were staying at each others houses. There were about 10 of us in 3 tents. We lost all 3 tents, a tree came crashing down almost on top of a friend (did smack his face up a bit) and with the 'wisdom' of youth we decided that we couldn't go home to face the music, so went to a nearby building site and settled in a half built house - which promptly lost its roof. We ended up walking the streets until about 8am, then went home. My mum still thinks I came home early because me & friend fell out.

On Monday I'm going.....camping.

I've already told DH that there is no way I am staying in a tent and he has agreed (reluctantly) to spend Monday at our caravan before moving to the campsite Tuesday. I'm not convinced a caravan is going to be any better.

I haven't been camping since 2006 - a disastrous trip when we lost 14 month DD under the side of the tent and she got 150 yards up the field before we noticed. I said I'd never camp again...

Ds says thank you- wind is fine, if it's in the right direction it helps with corners!

Absolutely no concern for the trail of potential destruction sweeping the country......

kitten I am taking the dc.
Dh & lodger will b at home with the dog to do hatch battening

Is he racing curlew?

Bloody hell Eve! That's an experience and a half.
I'm curious as to why you wish to repeat it?

Sorry OYBBK, I had both pages open and meant to post on the other 'storm' one. I didn't mean to disrupt the 'proper' weather thread with my ramblings

You are doing a great job

Oh I don't want to repeat it Kitten - really I don't, but DH is a sadist

Splendid plan girls :)

Thanks starfish!