Thunderstorm potential

[Ohyoubadbadkitten]

Quick heads up, will try to elaborate later, but today is a bit bonkers. Looks like there is potential for some severe thunderstorms tonight/tomorrow. I'll be honest and say that I've not looked at this myself yet have nicked it off a very reputable forum Tomorrows potential depends on what happens tonight - how much cloud cover is left over as we need the sun to get things going.

Will try and be more specific later,

If you want to have a proper read, the chap on this thread is a professional and really knows what he is talking about.

It's horrible here today, muggy and very overcast. I wouldn't be surprised if it did thunder, but I'm not that lucky.

I'm going to have a read of that link now, thank you.

Same here. Although the temp is only 20C outside the humidity is 85%. Not great for drying washing!

Ok, to translate that link, as it is far more knowledgeable than I could dredge up, I hope I don't do it too much of a disservice and reflect it accurately:

Tonight in the south elevated storms may develop (that is high up ones, so cloud-cloud lightning) but there's a limit to how strong they will get. There is the potential for the storms to move into the SW and S Wales. There is possibility for these storms to become organised and become a MCS (a big group of organised storms) with perhaps hail and some strong gusts.

Tomorrow, some showers and storms may move into sw England and up through Wales into the Midlands up to Scotland. These may also organise themselves into a MCS. Could produce hail and some strong winds, they may also become slow moving with heavy rain becoming a problem.

In the south and east, warm moist air may produce some severe thunderstorms as we go through the day. This partially depends on whether sunny intervals occur and what has been left behind by the earlier storms. Largish hail and strong gusts could occur. If conditions were right then a supercell could form, with perhaps even a strong tornado.

Remember, forecasting storms is still very much of an art form - it takes a lot of ingredients to be right to create interesting ones. I'd keep an eye on that thread for any updates.

bump!

'nother bump, could be a rude awakening for some tonight.

Lovely sunny evening here now - still humid though.

Oybbk

Thanks for that, at least I know what my plans are for tomorrow now!

Can you recommend a website that explains about weather patterns in a very basic manner?

I'm afraid I don't really understand about high/low pressure, or the lines on the forcast with little triangles on etc.

I'd love to be more 'in tune' with my environment, and to be able to name, identify and characterise different types of clouds.

And why dies it get muggy just before a storm???

Sorry for all the quesions, but I can see this is something you are passionate about, and would love to learn some more.

does

Yani, I'll have a look tomorrow for you to see if I can find a really good website and get back to you about your questions too :)

Thunder and lightening here in NI for the past few hours

Nice one, thank you.

Any thunder in West Cumbria?

Oooh does that mean it could get a bit exciting here? Goody its been about 6 years since we had a "proper" thunderstorm

More areas of the country covered by a weather warning. (Note the amber warning for Northern Ireland.)

It's raining here already (Leicestershire) so feels a bit fresher atm. I expect if the sun comes out later, the 'orrible mugginess we had yesterday will return.

We had some rain overnight, sunny today already - a good start to storm potential in the south this afternoon I think :)

Morning, OYBBK.
You're an early riser as well?

BBC is saying we're only going to have sun today, I was going to leave my coat at home, but I think I'll take it into work with me.

Possible soaking averted, thank you!

Yani,
been having a look for you. You wont go too far wrong with looking at the case studies here which interpret the charts in real life situations .

weather fronts

if you want to get more seriously into it then met ed is superb but you have to choose the courses carefully as many are rather in depth.

This is a rather nice book which probably will cover many of your questions.

I hink the answer as to why it goes muggy before storms is that to get storms you need warm moist air, plus something like heat or a geographical feature or a front to help lift that air (which will naturally rise anyway due to warm air being less dense). So the warm moist air is one of the ingredients.

Gloria - dd has gone off on a school residential abroad - at dark o'clock. Cant get back to sleep as I want to know if she got on the plane ok! (not that she can text me as they arent allowed phones, but hopefully they would phone me rather than abandoning her at the airport!) I've had, oooo 2 hours sleep I think!

Very sensible MrsMango, met office arent showing anything for this way either. I'm not sure why.....

2 hours sleep!! You'll have to catch up on some zzzzzz later on!
Hope your DD enjoys her residential ~ I'm sure schools partly put those on to test the stress and worry levels of parents!

Morning, we've got 96% humidity and 16.5C at 06:30 on Dartmoor this morning.

Some cloud to the nw, but Sun shafting under the front from the east.

It's uncomfortable already. Storms for sports day tomorrow would be fun!

I certainly will Gloria! I'm sure dd will have a whale of a time, but I'll be grey thinking about it. First steps for her will be to make sure she doesnt lose her passport or her bags!

Sounds beautiful underwater :)
I've been wandering round the garden this am. Amazing how warm it feels despite it being only 17c.