The Forty Fourth Republic - primaries sort of in, secondaries out, Gormless Gav says two weeks notice

[Staffdontblowitnow]

You are most welcome to this school staff support thread to get us through stressful times. It is meant for school staff only – a sort of room of requirement. Baiters, haters, goaders, and bashers can jog on somewhere else.

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If you come with a stick to goad us then that is not allowed in the staffroom and you will receive a detention

Well yes. Especially if they are assuming that lost earnings come from lower grades, which the system will be fiddled to not allow.

If they think that they will earn that much less because they aren’t quite as good at algebra and missed out on a history topic on Cromwell then that would be quite hard to justify.

To be fair honey the research itself says it isn't a 'projection' but an 'illustration of what could happen'.

@TheHoneyBadger

How the fuck can they project the lost earnings of a few months out of school? Sorry but that seems utter horseshit to me.

From an initial scan of the report, the projection is based on pre-existing data linking earnings to grade attainment and school-attendance.

The data's pretty available - we had it drummed into us on our (Primary) PGCE course.

Paragraph from report:

'An extensive revieww of the returns to schooling finds that a year of schooling increases individuals’ earnings by 8% per year, on average, across advanced and high-income countries. By the time children go back to school, most will have lost at least half a year of normal schooling. The lifetime costs of this could be very large indeed. Imagine someone earning £1 million over their working life (not far off the likely averagee in the UK). For this person, losing half a year of schooling will mean losing £40,000 in income over their lifetime. '

As posters will no doubt point out:

There are question-marks around the conclusion. For example, since this is a nation-wide effect, indeed global, will the impact be so great?

The report is arguing that, yes, for some it will. The impact on education & of coronavirus generally is not uniform but follows pre-existing inequalities.

Another question-mark:

It's about choice - these effects can be mitigated. It's not simply a function-machine: children in -> loss of schooling -> massive economic impact.
You can plan and mitigate.

And that, of course, is the thrust of the article.

Lastly, that pre-existing data is open to interpretation in and of itself.
Is it that children who get low grades and miss education experience adverse effects after these two things?
Or is it that they are already adversely affected by various factors, which then leads to low grades and lost schooling, and then the trajectory continues?

Again, the report would argue that this looks at things the wrong way: we know the impact of the pandemic follows lines of pre-existing inequality, so this is just another reason for planning and intervention to minimise adverse effects we can pretty much count on.

Yes the 'skills' thing always interests me. Will they be less skilled if they somehow haven't managed to watch and analyse an obscure Australian film? No.

I know there may be a problem for some universities with some courses but not most. I guess the biggest problem comes at Key Stage/ school transition points. But life definitely will not cave in if a bunch of incoming year 7s don't know what a fronted adverbial is.

I am more worried about loss of social skills and work habits in some students than the actual knowledge and skills.

noble : Well yes. Especially if they are assuming that lost earnings come from lower grades, which the system will be fiddled to not allow.'

Indeed.
But that then has a knock-on effect on university admission. And universities are already hammered by coronavirus and Brexit, so there will be a squeeze on places.

And then that brings us to the question of who loses out? Whose grades get left behind? Who loses out on a university place?

I think it's going to be ... interesting (which is a word I'm using euphemistically).

Sadly, I think the one thing we can be sure of is that this government won't be following the report's recommendations of planning and intervention.

A very insightful post cat.

We all know how much the tories will pin future yp issues on the pandemic. Hoping to divert from the impact of years of austerity and sure start losses etc.

And, of course, none of this is the fault or responsibility of teachers or schools.

Closing schools was a necessary public health intervention.

It's the government's responsibility to plan for the impact.

I am more worried about loss of social skills and work habits in some students than the actual knowledge and skills.

This this this.

How to learn is as if not more important than what you learn.

In sen especially with asd, you spend a lot of time teaching the basics of learning how to learn. Also fostering a desire to learn.

Knowing you can learn something new and how to do it is a life skill.

So are they assuming that for the next forty years, the people who get picked at interview for everything will always be the ones whose GCSEs weren't affected much by the pandemic?

I mean statistically it might turn out to be true.. don't know really.

Well, it's not just job interviews, JanuaryChill.

GCSE grades are linked to all sorts of outcomes (my favourite is 'no maths GCSE is correlated with 10 years lower life expectancy' - which is something that really needs to be unpacked!).

But my suspicion is that the loss of educational years-income correlation really kicks in with graduate and post-graduate education.

(Mind you, that maths GCSE statistic also suggests GCSE is a massive thing.)

That's why I think what happens about university entrance this year is going to be exciting.

Are you worried about uni entry because of the kids who deferred last year now competing against the ones finishing A-levels this year?

Won’t there be plenty of space because of the loss of international students?

They’ll have the grade profile needed to get in even if that translates to lower actual skills. Won’t the unis just have to make that up?

Just as an aside, My favourite is "drama gcse lessons positively affects attainment in maths gcse..."

No idea how.

Anecdotally there's a big push for funding lots of projects linked to well being at the mo, which is often the arts and sports.

One issue I can see with university entry and missed a level study is that at a level level you really get into the beginnings of proper research skills and critical thinking etc. Which is so important for university and professional careers thereafter.

I don't know, noble.

I keep meaning to ask people I know in university admission/finance what they're doing - but then forget.

Anecdotally, universities are making fewer offers this year, in order to avoid what happened last year.

The thing about the loss of international students being offset by taking more home students is that it doesn't take into account the massive revenue losses many universities are contending with.

The figures are pretty staggering.

I wonder if we're going to see departments having to close. And there are even rumours of some universities going bang.

I can't even imagine what that means, frankly.

Does it matter if a university is bankrupt? What happens to it?

It's all pretty much unchartered waters.

the beginnings of proper research skills

I genuinely think, since Gove, and A level reforms vanishingly few A Levels contain proper research.

@Saucery a huge thank you to you... the Novavax trial is looking like it's going to become a crossover trial so it means I'll definitely get vaccinated!!! I feel quite giddy

@Piggywaspushed

the beginnings of proper research skills

I genuinely think, since Gove, and A level reforms vanishingly few A Levels contain proper research.

That's a shame. I really value my history methodology. It was 50% of the course and benefited me the most of anything I did.

How exciting Mrs!

What’s a crossover trial, MrsH? Does that mean that you get the jab you didn’t get (so placebo if already vaccinated and vice versa)? That’s more interesting than just unblinding everyone!

Knowing that you’ve been vaccinated will be good - even if you think you were there’s always a niggle!

I am more worried about loss of social skills and work habits in some students than the actual knowledge and skills.

Oh me too. At all stages of childhood, but mostly for the really small ones - so many won't learn how to make friends independently or get along properly.

Or is it that they are already adversely affected by various factors, which then leads to low grades and lost schooling, and then the trajectory continues

Exactly - to be really crass and simplistic ONE example could be shit parents = lower chances of educational and life success. Shit parents + pandemic = even lower chances. The prime factor would still be the shit parents.

Clearly I don't think all low achievement and engagement is because of shit parents but I am using that as a very blunt example.

This low engagement in school = low life chances equation is over simplistic because it fails to address why there is low engagement and whether the driver was something that occurred even before the child started school.

It's the correlation not causation business and it lays the blame on school when the actual causes are far wider than the in school experience. Like lets pretend child poverty doesn't exist, that children aren't being left in homes where they are known to be at risk, lets pretend that abuse or chaotic homes doesn't effect learning etc.

@noblegiraffe

What’s a crossover trial, MrsH? Does that mean that you get the jab you didn’t get (so placebo if already vaccinated and vice versa)? That’s more interesting than just unblinding everyone!

Knowing that you’ve been vaccinated will be good - even if you think you were there’s always a niggle!

Exactly that apparently. I assume it's so they can continue to collect more data. For a company that was on the rocks on 2019, they've done very very well!!

I have just been teaching causation/ correlation and there is a shedload of correlations going on without ever being able to find any single direct cause in education.

The 'master status' is usually taken to be poverty. Only Marcus Rashford can see that...it seems.

I don't know what happens with university - they seem to be the equivalent of 'over subscribed' and charging high fees yet still struggling to be financially viable. To come away from the business model they'd need to go back to only a relatively small percentage of people going to university and a degree having value again and we'd need much broader provisions of HE alternatives in the form of meaningful apprenticeships that taught viable skills and qualifications that let into skilled jobs (as opposed to an nvq level 1 in sweeping the floor in a hairdressing salon spread over a whole year on pennies).

I don't know. Fees can't go any higher and they have a huge market of clients so? Something has to change.

I'm a bit cold today sorry. My energy is being sapped by dickheads who ignore my feedback and resubmit work that they haven't altered repeatedly

trashed history does still have coursework with research.

I notice this looking a tEPQ questionnaires. You can spot the few students who ahve actively been taught how to construct research. they certainly aren't being told how to do it by their EPQ supervisors.

Comms A Level was scrapped : taught Harvard referencing and research skills. Sociology has had its research put into an exam(?!) but still teaches the methods. Same with psychology. Film no longer has its really excellent independent research projects.
They must be in at the deep end at uni in year one! It's like Gove didn't want anyone to listen to experts...or cite them.

To be fair, HoneyBadger, the study under discussion absolutely doesn't lay the blame on schools. And I don't think any of the background studies do, either.