Another observation:
Harry’s favourability, while still low, appears to be stabilising and has shown modest improvement (a recurring trend in his stats) whereas Meghan’s has been in slow, steady decline.
While it’s risky to draw predictions from these numbers alone, they do suggest that, should Harry and Meghan divorce, he could potentially regain public favour by framing himself as the prodigal son manipulated by an ambitious spouse. He is unlikely to return to his pre-Megxit popularity, but he could plausibly maintain a steady 50–60 rating given time and positive PR spin.
Meghan’s path to reversing her decline is far less clear. Any improvement would likely depend on a divorce narrative in which she is portrayed as the victim of an abusive husband, or on producing concrete evidence of royal racism. Even then, previous attempts to present herself as a victim (of the media and the royal family) have already failed to boost her ratings: her favourability fell from 39 to 31 despite proclaiming Catherine made her cry/the royal racist accusation in the Oprah interview, and declined further from 30 following the Queen’s death in September 2022 to 23 after her grievances were published in Spare in January 2023.
I was genuinely shocked to see she had fallen to a lowly 19 in the latest poll!