Derren Brown - the events - predicts lottery results

[persephonesnape]

here

oh happy! it's been far too long since Derren was on TV - and now...twice in one week!

well I thought there would be one in #4 (DH and I both picked 4 btw!)
Right, off to bed. When I come back tomorrow I want a nice solution that involves stats and psychology but no chaos theory, regression to the mean, split screens or LED balls!

AND the risk goes down with the cups!

14/20 = 70%, the final 1/2 = 50%. So you'd possibly be more relaxed. If I'd been the stooge, I'd be pretty sure by the time it was down to 2 that I wasn't going to be allowed to stick a knife through my foot.

Tension followed by release of tension made him more vulnerable & therefore suggestible.

Night Stealth - sorry but I'm not going to come up with anything more than my 'he's a bag o' shite' theory

He was obviously never going to be allowed to stick a knife through his foot though

And actually, they wouldn't even have got away with him stomping on a mouse. Therefore, no knife, no mouse, except for the mouse in the final shot which was filmed entirely separately from the stomping.

There is no way either of his given explanations are true.

Check out this link.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFDWHUPF_s8

If you watch the actual footage its easier to see the leftmost ball move when he is writing down the numbers and said '23'.

So-according to this all of the people involved in the experiment should technically be winners tonight (Saturday). Cos if as group they predicated Wednesdays nos they should do the same This should be interesting. If there are 20 odd winners I'll be convinced.

Twitter on this is hilarious. All these people debating the 'deep maths'. The 24 people thing is total and utter nonsense. The wisdom of crowds things - in 1906 (or whenever it was) there was an actual COW to look at and judge. You can have a million people guessing a combination and 1,2,3,4,5,6, would still be just as likely as an outcome.
Brown absolutely does not believe in psychic ability so the coin thing was a distraction.

I don't think camera tricks/ split screen is his style. I am happy to believe insider machine fixing.

yes, midlandsmum, that's what I thought - if I was one of the 24 I'd have been passing my phone no round

It must have all been a distraction trying to progress an idea that was flimsy to begin with. That the group is always right. If that were true there'd be mass predictions all the time.

Quite interested in the sitting down thing he mentioned at the end, that's meant to work on viewers too, right?

looked like it - that's next week!

Would also like an explanation for the coin toss thing, because again, his explanation doesn't make sense! Might have to try that one out.

i think it was a mish-mash of reason 2 and 3. automatic writing is suggestion when in a trance state - Derren has 'form' for adding giant amounts of numbers seemingly collected by the free will of participants and predicting the result - it's similar to the david tennant automatic writing in trick or treat and the thing he does at the end of a live show (something wicked?) where a pieceof paper is passed back through the audience, everyone adds a number and the total is on the badge he has been wearing throughout the show. to manipulate people into thinking they had auto-written numbers he has actually made them write, whilst in a trance state is just a little bit further than that. as is the / 24.

add to that the 20% heavier balls, access gained by hypnotising lottery officials...surely a parliamentary enquiry in on the cards (...)

I loved the show. I am partially satisfied with the explanation (except the crowd theory hokum) and enjoying 'experts' being dredged up to go on about split screen technology and ping pong balls that can change the numbers on them. he's just very VERY good at what he does - everyone is talking, tons of publicity - job well done.

It has to be a camera trick. Simply because Derren always says at teh start of his shows that there are no actors and no camera trickery. So why didn't he say it? Because it ain't true.
He may be a tease and a cheeky bugger, but a liar he is not.

And I would buy Lottery tickets for UQD's animal lottery, sounds much more fun

The thing with the people coundt be true anyway, he said he did it on the day he was live pre or post dicting it when he had the numbers on the lamppost in his advert that had been on for weeks.
I heart Derren.

he made them come up with the numbers he wanted then to though.

Lets see what he does next week. Take your laptops and sit on the couch and see if you can move afterwards

Yes lets. It will be a mass mn tryout.

Dh and I did his seance thing yonks ago and the blinking glass moved! We freaked out and stopped.

Hmmmm. That is a very good point about the lack of camera trickery reference. He does normally say no camera nonsense and no stooges. I may have to change my position.

I am a bit scared of the sofa thing. My DH won't be home and I'll be stuck to the sofa as I hear DD wake up on the monitor, I'll bet.

He's gay? He never told me! He's in for a right rollicking when I get home.

Yes, "wisdom of crowds" works for some things - the cow at the fair was a perfect example. Nobody was going to say 10oz or 1000 tonnes - factor out the obviously wild guesses and you have a selection of dots on a graph clustered around the very likely right answer.

If I tell you all that DD is 9, and ask you all to guess her height, your guesses will all be in the right ballpark and the right answer will very probably be close to the average of your guesses.

But it doesn't work for the random drawing of 49 balls with different symbols on. Forget the fact that they are numbers - it means nothing.

I like Derren Brown for the sheer pleasure of watching him mess with people - he's a very clever man!

Agree that the Wisdom of Crowds wouldn't work for this trick. Don't think he fixed the Lottery either. He probably just hypnotised us all into thinking he did any of it in the first place....

it's all on youtube what he did with the split screens(he didnt predict anything), he's admitted it.

He's admitted it? Where? I've denied the split screen theory, so I need evidence!!

Oh yes!Dp ds and I came to blows over this esp dp and I we got tres childish

ooh so split screens is a definite then?