Parents, how do you feel about risk?

[KateMumsnet]

Hello all

We've been exploring the idea of a Mumsnet podcast for a while here at MNHQ, and we thought we'd have a bash at a pilot to see whether the idea's a goer. It's going to be based very loosely on the theme of 'Risk', and we'd love to hear from you if you'd potentially be up for contributing.

We're going to come at the subject from as many interesting angles as possible, so do let us know if you've got strong feelings on any of the following topics that have come up over the years on MN - or indeed if you've thoughts on other subjects/experiences which are risk-related...

• How do we protect children from risk while allowing them to grow up (and without life grinding to a halt)? For eg, is it okay to leave a sleeping baby with a baby monitor while you pop next door for dinner, or to let the kids walk back from school aged 6, as they do in some other countries? How about letting 13 year-olds go off camping alone?
• How does society view mothers who take physical risks in the careers or sports they pursue? Are there - and should there be - different 'rules' for mothers and fathers?
• Alternatively, have you ever had to weigh up big, life-changing gains against similarly life-changing losses? Or taken a big risk on someone or something which paid off - or went disastrously wrong?

Do add your thoughts here, and let us know whether you'd be happy for us to get in touch for a research chat?

Thanks

MNHQ

"attempted abductions by a stranger (186 in 2011/12)"

From your document (page 7):
Abductions by a stranger
The police data included 247 cases (273 victims) where a child was abducted by a stranger. Three-quarters were attempted abductions.
These figures are a poor indicator of the actual level of child abduction by a stranger in the UK. Gallagher et al. (2008) indicate that at least one in 59 children will experience some form of attempted abduction by a stranger in the course of their childhood. At least one in 605 children will experience an actual abduction by a stranger.

By the way, these numbers are based on 2011/2012 crime figures, where total child abduction number was 592. As I said in a post below, 2014/2015 figure is 822, 39% higher than the numbers you are citing.

Anyway, to cut a long story short, child abductions are on the rise, 42% are abducted by a stranger (from page 6 of your document), and it is not unreasonable for parents to worry about their child being abducted.

I really don't understand this data, and I can't decide whether this means I'm thick or that the data is confusing.

1 in 605 children experience actual abduction by a stranger? That can't possibly be right, surely? That's means that, for example, 2 children in most secondary schools will have actually been abducted by a stranger.

I in 59 experience attempted abduction by a stranger? That's at least 2 in most primary schools.........

I think we need a)sources for the data b)definitions of stranger, child and abduction.

CoteDAzur, the numbers you have quoted are a great example of how open to interpretation statistics are: 822 abductions in a year = more than 15/week.
I question the use of the word 'abduction' here - 'lured away', yes, maybe. Likely by a neighbour/uncle/friend of the family/somebody they met in a night club etc etc. which meets the criteria 'not by a parent'. But the vast majority of these cases it's not children playing football at the end of their street or in the park, taken away by men with the promises of sweeties or to see their puppies, it really is not.

And yy to the perception of risk and a lack of understanding between 'relative risk' and 'absolute risk': the doubling of a risk may seem dangerous, however the doubling of a minute risk to start off with, is still a tiny risk of the event actually happening.

Most incidents occurred when children were accompanied by their peers (67.9%).

That's interesting too - how many incidents happened between 'peers'?

Lots more questions.

"A simple headline saying that child abduction is on the increase is scare mongering."

I'm not looking at your report with 2011/2012 data. I'm looking at the Excel spreadsheet I linked to earlier, where child abduction data can be compared by year:

April 2012 - March 2013................... 513
April 2013 - March 2014................... 565
April 2014 - March 2015 .................. 822

You claim to have taught mathematics at some point, so I would certainly hope that you can see that child abductions have indeed been increasing over the last two years.

The report that data is from also gives the reasons why the numbers have gone up recently:

a spokesperson for the Association of Chief Police Officers said: ??There has been a considerable focus in the police service in recent years to improve crime-recording practices,?? which in turn has led to an increase in the statistics.

Also:

Experts think the reason might be changing crime-recording practices, and the Rotherdam scandal, which has seen the way abductions and kidnappings are dealt with re-evaluated.

I suspect if you looked at the stats on missing children you might see the rest of the pattern, teenagers previously thought to have run away now thought to have been abducted/lured away.

In my experience it's the parents of young children who worry most about abductions, not the parents of teenagers, and yet teens are at more risk of being lured, often by men posing as boyfriends.

"it's the parents of young children who worry most about abductions, not the parents of teenagers, and yet teens are at more risk of being lured"

True, the Probability of a teenager being abducted is higher. However, the Consequence (as in the Risk calculation formula) of a small child's abduction will usually be assigned a higher value - he can't defend himself, he can't escape, he can't call his parents or the police and tell them where he is. Even if he survives, he will soon forget his former life. As a parent, you can at least believe that your teenager has a reasonable chance of successfully fighting off an attacker or escaping at some point.

Cote- you say 822 children were abducted by strangers last year. Can you explain why this did not make the news?

But a teenager who is lured away will have very different thoughts than a small child, they may well have chosen to leave, we're not really talking about a snatching after all.

Bertrand - It is not me but the Office of National Statistics that says 822 children were abducted in the 12 months between April 2014 and March 2015. To find this number, click on the 4th link on this page on the Office of National Statistics Website. It's in Table 4.

I said all this two days ago, in my post from Sat 12-Sep-15 at 21:52:11.

I realise that teenager abductions are included in the "child abductions" figure, because they are under the age of 18.

That is the problem with including people within a certain legal definition although they don't biologically belong in it, as we have spoken about in other threads. The statistics are skewed and they are not as meaningful.

It is none of your business what I think about my children and what I do about their safety, Ego. Try to keep your posts objective and impersonal, if at all possible.