When could you identify your child’s academic potential?

[Op1n1onsPlease]

We are likely to move house within London or commuting distance in the next few years. DC1 is in Year 2 so will need to factor into secondary school for him even though it seems way too early.

At the moment I’m leaning towards finding a good comp rather than putting all our eggs in a selective basket as just less risk involved, but wondering when is the right time to make that call.

DC was an advanced baby/toddler (mainly speaking very early), but at school things have evened out and while he’s in the top handful in his state school class he’s unlikely to get greater depth across the board this year (he should in reading and maths but writing unlikely).

He’s May born so youngish in his class and doesn’t really care about schoolwork, is quite slapdash with homework etc and difficult to motivate to eg learn his times tables. This is obviously fine - he is only just 7! - but I’m wondering whether he might mature in the next couple of years or if this is just his personality.

For background DH and I both did very well academically (grammars and first class Oxbridge degrees) but were also very studious, nerdy kids which DC1 is definitely not.

I should say that private school is almost definitely not an option for us, so I’m thinking of grammar schools in London and nearby.

It really is so hard to know.

DD (now 17, Y12):

Early talker and started school with a large vocabulary.
Didn’t take to reading and just didn’t “get” phonics.
Was mostly happy at primary school but made slow progress academically, losing confidence and motivation.
Diagnosed with dyslexia aged 8 or 9, but received little support at school.
Wouldn’t have got in anywhere selective at 11.
Y7-9 very tough. Confidence and happiness at school really collapsed - but lockdowns showed us we could work well together at home.
Y10 I just pushed on with tutoring her myself (not home ed - she was still in school). Glimmers of confidence started showing and brought motivation.
Y11 roared ahead and aced her GCSEs.
Now doing really well at A Levels and very ambitious for university.

(We also have a DS, 12, who’s been more straightforward so far but still too early to tell how things will turn out for him!).

Dd was like that and did get better by year 6. Up to then hated homework, refused to learn times tables. Took ages to write fluently. Work was messy and slapdash. But read a lot herself. Did well in SATs and then was fine in year 7. Gradually became more motivated and got all As in the end in a state school, with GCSEs and A levels. She was just a bit slow with it all, seemed to fight against it. She still is a succinct, slightly lazy, worker. But is quick to learn and connect things. Remembers things without having to revise much or rote learn. She is very different to me in that sense.

So I wouldn't worry. He'll likely come into his own.

I think early talking is probably an indicator though. Age 2 to 3.

Even if he’s an emerging Einstein I wouldn’t put all your eggs in the selective basket if you’re staying in London. The very few grammar schools are so difficult to get into and any child can have a bad day at the 11+ exam.

However the London grammar’s (I think) don’t have a catchment area for sitting the exam itself, you just have to be in a specified postcode or radius when you start at the school. So some people sit the exam and move house if they get in.

If you’re moving to a grammar area like Kent your odds are obviously much better.

In answer to your question I would make the call in Year 4 so you can get tutoring sorted out if you’re going to go for it. I think you’re right to flag your DS’s motivation levels too, flogging a child who is not reasonably studious through the process would not be fun for any of you.

Actually check the admissions/catchment rules carefully by school.

For example, from a quick check Latymer has specified postcodes you must be resident in by a specified date, QEB has no catchment area.

-DD started school with quite advanced vocabulary and quickly excelled in learning to read and write. Phonics + spelling came easily and by the time she was 7 she had a reading age of 16 years+.
-All was fairly steady - consistently good test results etc until she took a downhill spiral in Y3 and began to majorly struggle with maths, by the time Y4 rolled around she was bottom of the class. All quite concerning with SATS just around the corner..
-Worked really hard in Y5 to sort things out and with the help of an excellent maths tutor she was back to doing very well in all of her subjects. Won a prize for most improved student that year!
-Ended Y6 top of her entire year group, excelling in both maths & english with an outstanding SATS score and gained entry into a highly competitive, sought after grammar

Spent most of her secondary years coasting along if I’m perfectly honest - came out with very good GCSEs but it all fell apart at A level and she ended up having to repeat a year of sixth form. Learnt the hard way that you can’t coast on natural ability forever..! Ended up with fairly average ABB grades at A level but at least they got her where she wanted to be (currently studying physiotherapy at uni)

DD was a "late bloomer" academically and didn't get into her stride until Y6+. All through primary school she did OK but nothing amazing and we were happy with that. By end Yr 5 she had started pulling away from "ok" and ended up greater depth in all SATS. Yr7 flew at secondary and now at end Yr 8 she is top set in all subjects (they set for everything) and won an academic scholarship for Yr9-11.

Kids develop at different rates but she was talking at 9 months old (didn't walk until 18 months) and is a voracious reader. At 13 she has finished Crime + Punishment and has read many of the classics.

My eldest son, also May born, was an early talker and during his first year in primary school, the teacher praised him a lot. My childminder told me one of the other pupils pointed at him once and said “that’s the smartest boy in our class”. I laughed it off but yes, as the years went by, he was always top of the class and ended up with a scholarship to a private secondary school. My younger son struggled academically from day one, on the other hand. So education-wise, I knew how they would do from very early on.

My summer born boy was a late bloomer - didn't really show what he could do or rather maybe didn't reach his potential until A levels. Now on track for a first at university.

My winter born boy very similar to the extent his A level further maths teacher commented to me about my 'late bloomers'.

So I would keep options open.

I think it’s impossible to predict. My kid started off really well and i had high hopes but then they crashed and burned in late primary due to bullying issues. She limped along on Ds for a couple of years in highschool but just seemed to shut down when it came to school work. We ended up pulling her out all together and she’s now taking vocational courses which she’s enjoying immensely. I have no doubt that she’ll do well in life because she’s a bright kid. but it won’t be in a mainstream academic setting.

Impossible to say. My eldest was a late talker, steady reader from around year 1, but was ridiculously driven. He's a high achiever, oxbridge etc.

Younger dc, spoke early, was free reading fluently by the end of Reception with almost no input. But so relaxed, he's not worried about exam results.

In your position, I'd find an area with a few decent comps. We're in Herts, and have six outstanding secondaries locally.

I’ve got one who showed early promise but levelled out by the upper end of primary and slumped by the end of high school.
And another who was average through primary but is currently acing high school and generally gets the top marks in his year. Would never have predicted this even in year 6

In primary I think that natural reading ability can make kids appear more or less advanced.l, as it opens up so many other things to them. It does mean that they act even out a bit as others pick up those skills..
The other factor is their own wishes. Dd1 has decided that grammar is the place for her, which is her motivation for extra studying for the 11+

I don’t think you can always tell.

DS2 initially was behind - but he’s late summer born. Quickly caught up by year 1/2 and was average throughout primary.
During secondary he worked hard - I think for him there’s an element of being naturally bright but also a huge element of him being a hard worker. He’s always had the mindset of wanting to please his teacher right from the start and that’s shown itself in secondary with working hard in class and at home with homework and I think he’s worked himself into the top sets and now he’s sitting his GCSE’s with predictions of 8-9s.

He has his eye on the prize - he knows what career he wants and what grades he needs for uni and is working hard to get it.

DD has been a good all-rounder since nursery and has consistently been top of her class in both Maths and English. She is year 4 now and we are hoping she passes the 11+.

DS has exceptional maths and reading skills. He reads to himself daily. He doesn't enjoy writing, although when he does write it is good quality. He is year 1. The aim is for 11+ hoping his reading, and therefore vocabulary, will help his writing when older.

DH is relaxed about it. I have more concerns. I was similar to DD growing up and scored a very high pass mark on the 11+, so am hoping DD will be fine. But also worried about being complacent about what happened 30 years ago!

In general, the best predictor of a child's academic performance is their parents' academic performance.

We’ve just left London for an area with good comps and supportive pastoral care. I could not face sending them through a London system that is becoming more authoritarian and exam focussed.

I’ve one naturally curious nerdy kid who simply loves learning and has pushed himself in Sats because he wants the satisfaction of getting greater depth. If it had just been him, we would have considered a Grammar area.

However, I have another kid who thinks school is a load of old rubbish. He’s progressing well but is only greater depth in computing because he loves his iPad so much. So comp was the way to go for us.

Obviously, OP, your DC is a product of your and your DP's gene pool, but that combined gene pool will include earlier generations with very different personalities, strengths and weaknesses.

Added to this, the environment in which they are growing up, and the sequencing of any experiences, is different from yours, your DP and that of any siblings.

So the range of possible outcomes is very wide. Clearly it can be influenced by parents but also by DC themselves; the latter is a really important aspect, in my view, and more on this below.

Developmental progress is often very uneven and not at all linear. Better to have a parental mindset that embraces that than seeks reassurance that a DC should be, and is, and will remain on some kind of smooth academic conveyor belt (OP, I am not suggesting you are thinking this but it is a potential pitfall).

I am also an Oxbridge graduate but did not come into my own in any shape or form until Y9, so one really cannot make concrete assumptions in earlier years (and one of the reasons I think 11+ and Grammar segregation is flawed).

I live in an area with no Grammar schools (true of huge swathes of the country) but sending my DC to a comp (average; very mixed socio-economic catchment) was an active choice. Dynamic setting enabled them to bloom in areas where they had potential, crucially at the right pace and time for them.

Additionally, and much more importantly, I would say they gradually built up skills in resilience, self-reliance and self-direction which, I can see, is standing them in really good stead in the years after school. It is that I focused on as a parent, rather than worrying about performance comparisons with DCs' peers. So, in that sense, the question posed by the OP is an interesting one, but the wrong one in my view.

DS1 - late to talk, didn't get phonics, didn't scribble/draw/write. Nursery (as in childcare, not preschool) said he was bright. Primary tough as written and verbal work was miles apart. Dyslexia and dysgraphia identified.
Now in Y11, and hoping for 6 grade 9s, and 3 7s (tho more likely is 9s and 6s).

DS2 - just quietly gets on with it, about when he should. Except for maths, which he would happily do all day every day. Bedtime story??? Nope. Mental maths questions before going to sleep? Yep....

Not necessarily. We have an intelligent and articulate teen who was much later to talking - he missed out the words/short sentences stage when most others were doing that, but then just started using more structured sentences before some of the early babblers did. 😬

Not sure I ever have.

She was bright as a toddler, talked early, could read as a toddler before school.
In Year 2 she was a year behind according to her class teacher.
We moved her to a better school (still state) and she did better.
Passed her 11plus (just)
Didn't get into the grammar on distance
Did ok/well in her gcses - (6s and 7s, 1x 8).
Bombed her A levels - think she ended up with 3 xCs
Failed Year 1 at uni - was allowed to repeat as mental breakdown due to covid
Got a 1st class degree
Heading off to do a Masters at one of the best unis in the country for her subject.

It's been a rollercoaster!

Impossible to say I'm afraid. DD was bottom of the class throughout school. Even got an EHCP for dyslexia and predicted all 1s and 2s in GCSEs, didn't even get enough marks in y6 sats to get a scaled score. With the right help she did really well though and even got some 7s and a 9 in GCSEs. She worked really really hard though. Some of her very clever friends didn't and did worse than her. I think resilience and hard work is far more important than the natural ability. High natural ability can sometimes be a curse tbh

Thank you for all the replies - interesting to see such a wide range of responses.

Thinking more about it and echoing what a lot of you have said, I think it’s actually mostly a question of desire/drive/motivation/personality rather than ability. As a child I was super driven and competitive which I think is what spurred me on to do well. DS is not like that at all. I think he has the raw materials to do well - ability + parental engagement and support - but is a much more carefree person than I was at that age. (Which is definitely a good thing - he’s a lovely, happy child).

So I suppose really my question is whether this attitude is likely to change as he gets older, and I think the answer seems to be that it’s impossible to say!

DS fairly average until end of year 2 (winter born) then suddenly zoomed ahead of peers. Always loved books/ being read to and learning in general. I wouldn't worry about times tables in year 2. Does your DC enjoy reading? I think it is probably the most important thing at this stage? Surround him in books- anything and everything!

DC1 was a September baby. He was a fairly bright toddler, started talking at 10m. But very quiet/socially shy. I did put the effort in at home and he started nursery being able to read. He was however quite lazy. He was top two in his village school class (the other child was a genuine Einstein! Absolutely exceptional rather than just bright). He changed schools in y3 to a more academic school. Usually top 2/3 in the class and doing well. Passed the 11+ just doing a few practice papers at home. He would laugh and tell you that was his peak and it was all downhill from there!

Was very average at grammar school. Very middle of the road. He was/is lazy and VERY laid back. Got average A levels. Got into a decent uni (top 10/15 in the league tables) and has coasted along for a 2.1. He’s bright but not exceptional. If his personality was different and he strived I’m sure he could have done much better but he’s happy to have done just enough. He’s not at all interested in a high powered/stress career with his earning potential.

DC2 was the very end of August (supposed to have been mid September). He was SO behind in the infants! Bottom table in reception. He was just developmentally so young. He talked at 12m but difficulties with speech until the age of about 4/5- we could understand him easily but others really struggled. Improved steadily and by y2 he was top of the middle set/bottom of the top group. He moved schools when we moved house and finally in y3 he hit his stride. We were lucky in that he had wonderful teachers who really stretched the top kids and personality wise DC2 really wanted to do well/tried really hard. He passed the 11+ easily altho we did get a local tutor for the few months before the test as I had a new baby and struggled to get the time/peace and quiet to practice with him. At the grammar he wasn’t exceptional but upper end of average (eg set 2 of 4 maths etc). He did coast/get lazy in years 8-beginning of y11. He’s now sitting his GCSE’s. He has worked hard over the last 3 months and has really pulled out the stops revision wise since Easter. Hoping for good but not exceptional exam results, hopefully some 8s in his best subjects, but mainly 7s and the odd 6. I predict that he will do much better than DC1 in a level results and beyond. It helps he has clear career goals and knows he has to do well academically to get there so that motivates him.

If you had compared them at 6/7 you’d have put all your money on DC1 outperforming DC2 academically by a long way, which would have been a mistake.

In terms of raw ability… well I don’t know that there’s that much between them tbh… I think personality plays a huge part. They are both reasonably bright. But DC2 is far more driven/motivated and DC1 does the bare minimum to get by. Neither are so clever that they could get the top grades without putting in some work.