SPGS actual offers and acceptances

[spnumbers]

This has been mentioned a few times. Here's last year's actual results by school. The class was 113. 51 places were achieved by making 53 offers. That's 45% of the class. At that rate, it implies that a total of 4.4 offers were declined. If we think the other 55% is more likely to decline offers, then it's more like 7-12 total offers declined. Enjoy.

I agree the unobserved 55% is more likely to reject, and probably higher than what you estimated. Probably about 15-20 in total, but again it is just a guess.

If anyone has ACTUAL data for other schools, then I will add it to the table. For example, NLCS Junior typically sends a few kids. Then we can all stop guessing. What we know for certain, is they filled 45% of the class with two offers declined.

Some of those 'offers' may be WL offers.

Yes, some may be WL offers. That won't change the 45%.

If anyone has actual numbers for these schools, then please let me know: NLCS, Hill House International Junior School, Cavendish School, The Roche School, Chiswick and Bedford Park Prep, Hampden Gurney, Garden House Girls’ School, Knightsbridge School, Blackheath Prep School and Newton Prep. I need acceptances and offers (all offers) for each.

What is the reason/value to get more accurate number for last year specificly? Is a guesstimate not enough?

How is the better accuracy of the number relavent to this year or years forward (if any value)

Because I enjoy having accurate data. True of so many things in life. People can look at the actual data, or not. Totally up to them.

It is never possible to get the state applicant number via MN or Internet. Best chance is to ask the school directly.

Things in the life are stochastic and full of randomness. 🙃

I believe spgs says 50% are from state schools, so you would be looking for most of the data from state schools which don’t publish. I think they would be much more likely to reject for offers at top grammar schools or financial reasons (scholarships and bursaries from other schools). However, this is a very good indicator for private prep schools.

Does it really matter? Every year is different. You are never going to be able build a proper list.
Girls do turn down the school and they do have a wait list.

LOL, if it doesn't matter, then just ignore the numbers.

If SPGS takes 50% from state and 50% from established preps then what about kids from other prep schools? Where did this 50% state intake come from - I have heard of CLSG having a metric but not others…

I doubt the school has 50% from state schools. Not even half of that.

I think it is impossible to know all of the various state primary schools. The schools don’t publish that information.

The girl on my tour said 50% from state schools. Does anyone have a daughter at the school with firsthand experience?

Chiswick & Bedford & Garden House sent sent 0 girls last year

www.gardenhouseschool.co.uk/academic/leavers-destinations

www.cbppschool.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Results-2021-22-school-places-and-acceptances.pdf

@spnumbers Thanks for this. One small amendment - if you look at the Ken Prep leavers' destinations on their website, it says 7 offers and yet 8 acceptances so presumably someone got in on the waitlist.

One thing I'm intrigued by - why do you think fewer people would take up an SPGS offer from state school than an indie prep? I'd have thought it might be the opposite (lots of indie prep school girls will sit SPGS / G&L / LU / CLSG and even WA / Cheltenham etc, and the brightest often get offers across the board so are quite likely to have a lot of choices, so more likely to turn SPGS down?)

Okay, if I switch Ken Prep to 8 out of 8, the implied declines falls to 4.3 ta

@LondonMum20222 state schools DD sit grammars such as TGS or HBS, and if they get offers from SPGS, they will also likely to get those grammar places. With financial consideration and focus on academic result mainly they are more likely to choose grammar.

I think SPGS is specially obssessed by West London Prep as kind of "Holy Grail".. If you look at the those prep published results, the same pool of students gets CLSG or LU or WHS will more likely to pick SPGS. WA is a special case as it is broading some parents had strong preference on that.

@PreplexJ Yes, that makes sense. Although equally I'm always quite surprised on the elevenplus forum just how many people turn down Tiffins each year (usually about 30) and from what I've read over the years a fair few of those reject it for SPGS / G&L or one of the other top day indies.

I also agree with you that I think it highly unlikely that SPGS (or any top London day school) has 50% state school intake (other than those with their own junior school who have fewer places at 11 anyway, and do tend to offer to more state school applicants at 11). Just from the table above, the implication of that is that nobody from any other prep school - or from any private through school - gets and offer which is clearly nonsense!

“how many people turn down Tiffins each year (usually about 30) and from what I've read over the years a fair few of those reject it for SPGS / G&L or one of the other top day indies.”

Not all Tiffins holders are from state schools, a sizable portion are from Prep (including even feeder prep to SPGS), sit Tiffin as backup or practice. And those applicants are not financial constrained.

I think it is close to 50/50, maybe 55/45 but it is close. I am bored and curious so looking at last year — Ravenscourt prep 0 offers, Roche school 0 offers, mill house 0 offers, Newton prep 0 offers, ambercorn 0 offers, falcons girls 0 offers, fhss 1 offer, Kew college 1 offer, heathfield 1 offer (they published 1 offer and 1 accepted) We have nearly exhausted the indie London prep schools.

There is private junior school - won't publish the numbers, overseas pupils and preps outside London... A lot of noise and randomness.

I think this thread just shows the narrowness of some people's world- there are a ton of private preps not already mentioned that send girls everywhere. There are also a ton of state school pupils who can easily afford private school fees but choose not to at primary and will choose private over Tiffin etc. Just as there are huge numbers of Prep parents desperate not to pay secondary school fees.

I have a dd in this year’s Y7 - state primary so won’t show up on any stats. She was offered Tiffin, so we did have that choice to make. I’d be surprised if it’s as high as 50% state school intake, just from chatting to her about what schools her friends came from.