if anybody lies about something like this then they clearly need the place more than most
I don't think that's true at all. Do you think that about people who lie to get into schools either?
I think the more they put into helping people the more the knowledgeable group will exploit it, just like schools.
If I look at contextual offers. DD has just gone to university from state schools (comprehensive followed by non-selective state 6th form). Of her friends a number got contextual offers. She didn't and it's made no difference to her.
- Went to all the same schools (from preschool up!) as dd, but they moved in year 12 to a "poorer" postcode.
2.Went to the same schools until 6th form, at 6th form went to a different one (which actually gets better results than her 6th form, but is in a "poorer" area)
- Went to the same 6th form as her, but went to private schools from infant upwards, but lives in a "poorer" postcode.
Now I think contextual offers is a great idea. My df would have benefitted greatly from such schemes, and he would have deserved to. However from the above it looks too easy to exploit. None of them deliberately put themselves into the position of looking for it. In fact I know at least one felt rather insulted by it, and refused to consider the university that gave it.
It's too crude, and because of that, if it becomes widely known, you'll find pupils doing things like applying from grandparent address (you don't have to prove it) for a poorer postcode.
You also have it as 2 tier system at present, and to my mind it's far more than that.
How do you separate out on schools, for example:
Poor comprehensive
Good comprehensive
Grammar School
Good Private
Poor private
At the moment they're just taking off poor comprehensive. But there's also a world of difference between a good comprehensive and a grammar, or a poor private and a good private.
DD had one place that her offer was A A A. At an offer holder day there were people who'd been given the contextual offer of BBB.
This is a huge difference. That will mean that people will think it's worth the risk.
I don't know what the answer is. It's just the same as applying for schools.
I hope they don't stop trying to encourage first generation applicants, and I hope that they will continue to outreach to those who might think university is not for the likes of themselves.
But think they will have to constantly update it to stop people exploiting it. And the more hoops they put for people to jump through to get it, the more it will put off the very people they are trying to help.