GCSEs 2018 (13) Untwisting our knickers, lucky for some!

[Stickerrocks]

Thread 12 Link to the thread with our potted histories. Now the end is in sight.

Mmzz I'm just being optimistic! But thanks but I vet your ds dies better!

Sorry meant does! Omg!

All it says is that those attaining a 4 in SATs should get a 4-6 in GCSE, those attaining a 5 should get 7/8 in GCSE

What can be eye-opening is going to your school stats and finding out whether this happens.
Go to www.compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk type in your school name, scroll down past the graphs, down a bit furthering and go to ‘prior attainment’

Higher prior attainers got a 5+ in their SATs. Look at the percentage who then got a 4+ in English and maths. It’s very rarely 100%. 5+ will usually be nowhere near 100%. So they should be getting 4-6 or 7/8, but lots don’t even get a ‘good’ pass.

Sost if I made predictions based on demeanour it would be 9s all round!!! He's practically horizontal I hate to say pride goes before a fall...

Ah, that's the sawtooth! Thanks.

It seems I did remember SATS changes fairly accurately. The new SATS coincided with the abandonment of those pesky (but fairly useful) levels. Life after levels now.

The stats mmzz was looking at included 3 sciences, (including CS) triple science, core and additional, and a handful of 'double' science. I didn't see anything for just one or two single sciences. Some DC took Core, Additional and Further Additional to make up their triple science. Confusing?

That makes sense, teenmum. I guess it evens out some of the current year 10s advantage over the current year 11s through there being a past paper to reference and the teachers having learned a few lessons (like how long the course takes to teach!).

There's been discussion on the threads previously about comparing one year with the next, and I think it was generally agreed in the end that our DC won't be in competition for places etc with next year's DC, so comparing years isn't that relevant anyway.

Sost I don't! I have honestly no idea how DS will do, except I hope he gets a 9 for maths, a 7+ for physics and English lit isn't below a 5.

Sost - That will be a great set of results and your DGD has earned them...you may have a pleasant surprise re Art because I;ve had some feedback from one of my friends daughter who was disappointed with her coursework marks (similar marks) and was predicted an 8.

That's interesting noblegiraffe! Never knew they would do that. Bet primaries may breathe a sigh of relief!

I predicted DS2's results on thread last time around. Just for shits and giggles. Don't think I'll be doing it for DS3... though hoping for at least an 8 for maths

Think final piece went down the shute teenmum due to teacher insisting she went big. I put it on a few threads ago teen but thanks anyway! ( sure your DC will get that 8)

Primary SATS are the bane of secondaries lives. Primaries want to look good in the league tables and you end up with 'taught to test' inflated results, which then impact secondaries old value added and now Progress 8.

Sorry teen thought you meant your dd read wrong!

Its not my DD Sost - she doesn't do art - its a friends DD... Most of my DD's grades will still be A-G (hopefully no D-G's!)

I don’t want to know about unofficial percentages for exams either.

What’s done is done......🙈

DS2 always joked about spelling FUDGE with his results. Luckily he did slightly better than that!

Two years ago I was very close in my speculation of DS1's GCSE grades. One subject ended up being a grade higher and one subject ended up being a grade lower, but for everything else I guessed correctly.

This year I don't think I would be able to be that accurate for DS2.
I would guess:
8 or 9 for Maths, Physics, Chemistry.
6 or 7 for English and Geography.
The rest will probably be somewhere in between.

Is now going to do what nobelgiraffe suggested!

I was being very optimistic with predictions! Especially with the English!

EllenJanethickerknickers It is definitely possible to break down, and then aggregate the sciences more fully and do better analysis. I just used the schoolsweek data, which is more for blogging than proper research, but i spot checked a few of the numbers and they seemed accurate.

Well just found out progress 8 for school well above average in top 12% of schools nationwide. That's surprising actually thought they might be in top 25% but not as high as that!

Noble I did this for Ds's school and it says

English & maths at grade 5 or above / High prior attainers 98%

It is recognised as an extremely good comp though

OK Sost seeing as you were brave enough. Here are my predictions for DD (actually more her prediction after each exam):

Geography.7
Chemistry. 7 (based on paper 1 only)
Biology. 6/7
Physics. 7 (based on paper 1 only)
Maths 8 (slim chance of 9)
German. Not done yet.
RE. 4
Eng lit. 6
Eng lang 5
Computer science 8

We'd both be very happy with that!

For high attainers at DS2's school:
Progress 8: 69.7
5+ in English and Maths: 95%
4+ in English and Maths: 100%

mmzz wow, that’s amazing. I’ve just checked out a few local schools and even the very well regarded ones don’t come close!