GCSEs 2018 (13) Untwisting our knickers, lucky for some!

[Stickerrocks]

Thread 12 Link to the thread with our potted histories. Now the end is in sight.

The cohort after our dcs were the first to do the new SATs. I know that because dgds primary where one of 20 primaries across the country that piloted the new grammar paper for said new SATs.

There were a couple or three years when DC were taking level 6 papers at KS2. Started the year before our DC, I think and ended a year or so after them. So they'll be skewed for those years towards the higher end, maybe?

I'm not sure that's right, Sostenueto because DS2 did the same ones in 2015 as DS1 did in 2013. They changed the following year, in 2016.

Maybe they got a bit harder in 2014, or something? I don't remember any big differences between what DS1 did and Ds2 and the teacher was definitely giving DS2 the past papers from Ds1's year. (I remember because DS2, competitive as ever, made a point of getting better marks than DS1 did).

The SPAG papers were new, iirc

DS2 and DS1 had no level 6 papers and no SPAG.

It doesn't really matter what sat results were anyway. Its the rate if progress made by pupils that does. Each child develops at different speeds. A crap sat result does not mean that child will be in bottom groups forever. A fantastic result (6) does not mean you will be in top groups or top of the school. Sat results do not determine what really happens over a number of years within a cohort. All it says is that those attaining a 4 in SATs should get a 4-6 in GCSE, those attaining a 5 should get 7/8 in GCSE and those attaining a 6 should get an 8/9. In no way is that fixed.

The level 6s are in the table too. i just left them out of my post because they didn't add anything. The table I downloaded shows SATS results, year by year from 1995 - 2014.
It shows Level 6 sats starting in 2012 (3% in maths), 2013 (7% in maths), 2014 (9% in maths). Reading rounded to 0 in all 3 years.

SPAG started in 2013. The 2014 cohort did better in that too.

mmzz lots of change in that time. DS1 did reported science SATS as well, last year of those. Reported Y9 KS3 SATS ended around then as well.

Yes that's it ellen the spag papers! I remember now.

For the level 6 papers only selected DC took them. My DS's school didn't choose to start them in 2012, my DS's year was the first in their school. That might be why it appears that more achieved them.

Agreed, Sostenueto SATS results do not predict what every individual child will do. There are always late developers and false positives. However, they are reasonably good predictors of what children will do, on average and that's why they use them to adjust the %s that will get each GCSE band if there is evidence that a particular year is a brighter cohort.

This is testing my memory, sost and mmzz!

Soursprout I think it was current year 8s. Ds2 is in year 9 and did the old SATS, but my friend's son, now in year 8, did the new ones.

I remember that she was horrified that her child would have to do something so difficult. Shaking her fist at Michael Gove when he got mentioned on the news etc.

Ah, we all do that!

Well we will see in upcoming grade boundaries whether this cohort are brighter or not. (Or it may show exams were either harder or easier!) Actually I'm past caring. If dgds school put presentation together with highly noted and eminent organisations that's good enough for me. No offence to mmzz research whatsoever. I have found mmzzs contributions invaluable

EllenJanethickerknickers Here's a news story from May 2016 to jolt your memory:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-35907385
Children in Year 2 (aged 6-7) and Year 6 (aged 10 and 11) are the first cohort to take new, more rigorous Sats tests this summer term.

They’re binning using SATs results for grade boundaries in a couple of years anyway. They are moving to National Reference Tests where a random selection of Y11s sit an exam in March and they will use that (it’s the same exam each year) to decide how bright the cohort is compared to previous years. This means they won’t be screwed when the new SATs results hit Y11 and Y11 GCSE performance won’t be limited by how the cohort did in Y6 (so secondaries can actually add value). Last year’s Y11 were the first to sit I think.

Sostenueto This is a question I know you can't answer, but I would be interested to know why your school put together that presentation. What was the objective? To panic parents? Make them think their children have the odds stacked against them?? I can't think of any good motive. It seems an odd thing to do, whether this year's cohort are especially bright or not.

Well I think dgd s results may look like this.
Geography. 9
Chemistry. 8
Biology. 7/8
Physics. 7/8
Maths 8
Spanish. 8
RE. 7/8
Eng lit. 6
Eng lang 5
Art. 6

These are just based on her attitude and demeanor after each exam so far.

Level 6 papers would probably be ignored in analyses as not universally taken. They are ignored in Progress 8 calculations.

That's brave of you, Sostenueto!

They will be an excellent set of results, if your DGD gets them (and whether she gets exactly those or not, i am sure she will do well). Good luck to her anyway.

No idea why they did it mmzz they apparently hadn't done it before. Though the school us one selected by government to help out schools that don't do well by lending our teachers out and other teachers come to our school to see methods used. Also trainee teachers come to learn. School has won many awards and done Stella work helping other schools across East Anglia and Southeast.

Looks like DC's had a good day ...No exam for DD today...but Chemistry tomorrow.
Thanks for new thread Stickerrocks...
Thanks for the tables to mmzz - I read quite a lot of the the Ofqual grade setting documents and there is some other adjustment they were expecting year on year as and when the new exams become more familiar. The document mentioned that the grade boundaries would adjust by in the region of 2% each year until it was felt that the new exams were embedded (It was referred to has Sawtooth. I am not sure whether this will be reflected in Eng/Maths this year but they felt that it would take three years to do this so last years grade boundary would go up by 6% over a three year period until they believe it then flattens out). I assume this will be a natural process on how the cohort performs...so if last years grade boundary was 79% for a 9 they would expect this years to be 81%.. because they are only pinning the grades to last years performance for one year. That is how I read it anyhow...

Third - hope you feel better soon...

I assume the science stats also include any child that just took an individual science so not just the triple science students?

Peggy your DC sounds fab! A perfect example of the exception to the rule of exams being appropriate tests of someone's ability. I'm also a great believer in the new good apprenticeships - DS2 is headed in that direction in two years and I hope he can display some of his talents that aren't really measured academically.

Our school seems to do triple science as the default. They move students out at the end of Y10 into combined if they're struggling (and obviously some students will have other circumstances which preclude triple science). Reading all your learned posts I am now wondering if perhaps DS2 would be better off with combined and should I talk to School? He's bright but unmotivated by academics and has no desire to study past 16. Looking at building or sports apprenticeship schemes currently. Maybe I will ask a friendly teacher when I see one