How can a predicted grade and a target grade be completely different?

[AtYourCervix]

2 weeks before GCSEs start.

Target grades mostly Bs and Cs.

Predicted grades have steadily dropped over the last few years from Bs to Ds and Es.

I'll eat my shoes if she actually manages to sit the exams so any grade is going to exceed my ecpectations but I am confused by the differences between the target and predicted.

Any insight?

I may be wrong, but is 'target' what she should be aiming for, and 'predicted' is what they think she'll get?

Predicted means just that; she could get Bs and Cs if she pulls out all the stops but they don't think they will, so cover their backs by predicting a lower grade.

DS started by being predicted all A* then as he lost interest over the two years (hated the school with a passiion), they dropped the predicted grades to (iirc) something like 5As 5Bs and a couple of Cs.

They were right as it turns out.

I didn't explain that very well. Take notice of LadySybil and ignore me

I still fon't get it. Should the target not be what the predicted is?

Or is that jyst me bring pessimistic?

It means she's under performing. If she pulls her socks up she could get her target grades. If she doesn't, she'll get her predicted grades.

Is she having real problems at school? They really should have picked this up by now and made attempts to help her.

Target is what she should get if working to the best of her ability/national average.

Predicted is what she will probably get, considering the effort she is making.

Massive big school problems. Counting the days until it is over.

Does she have a plan for after she leaves? She's going to find things tough if she wants to do A'levels elsewhere as they often want 5 C+ GCSE's. If they are all E's then she'll need to re-sit.

Target will probably have been set at the end of y9 / start y10 based on (a) results end y9 and (b) SATs results end y6.

Predicted is the best guess from the teacher as to what they think your child will actually get when they take their GCSEs based on progress made during y10/y11, attitude to work etc.

I suspect some predicted grades are tweaked a bit by teachers to either make a child pull their socks up (by predicting a bit low), or to boost confidence (by predicting a bit high).

Generally I think my DD's current predictions are a bit high and I expect some to drop by mid y11.

The targets are set quite early aren't they? My DD1 is in year 7 and has her target levels for where she should be at the end of year 9. For her the targets are based on her SATs results in year 6.

Predicted grades is what they think she will get based on current work.

That's my guess anyway.

I know what you mean, it is rather contradictory but as posters above have said a target is what (probably in Year 9) they will have assessed she is capable of and the predicted grade (probably assessed more recently) will be what they feel she will achieve.

Of course, they could be entirely wrong.

Agree - target are what she is capable of; predicted what she'll get given the current effort levels, so she is clearly letting herself down.

Does she not buy the argument that she either tries hard now, and gets it all over and done with, or spends yet another year re-taking the same subjects?

She has a plan for next year.

She may well surprise me

Am I right in thinking that the target grade is what, on average, students with her prior attainment will get? So children that achieved x in Y6 SATs/Y9 tests/whatever, on average get y in their GCSEs? If that's right, then predicted grades are not only more recently set, but also take into account an individual student's circumstances in a way that target grades don't.

Amber that's the way I always understood it.

Target grades are computer-generated based on average outcomes from SATS and other data.

Predicted is the teachers current assessment of my child.

Hence I have always ignored the former and focused on the latter.

At my school, target grades are based on 4 levels of progress from KS2 levels. A child who got an average score of a 4 across KS2 SATs would have a target of a B. The target grade does not change.

A predicted grade is what the teacher thinks the student will get. This is based on real data such as controlled assessment or coursework marks and mock exams. The predicted grade is likely to change depending on a range of factors.

In my yr 11 class, I have one student whose target is an A but whose predicted grade is a D. On the other hand, I have two whose targets are B but I'm predicting will get A*s.

Target is aspirational, predicted grade is what they should get, based on evidence throughout the whole course.

Well. She's done bugger all revision and spends all sodding evening watching youtube so my own personal prediction is that she will fail miserably.

Aaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrggggggggh

I did bugger all revision (and naff all work) and managed to get a B and five C's. It is possible, so she may be OK.

So bloody frustrating though.

Target is what the government thing she should get, the predicted is what she will get if she continues working with the same effort/understanding as she is showing now. Predicted is not BEST EFFORT but CURRENT effort.

In all honesty AYC I think you are being a bit harsh on your DD you stated that she has "Massive big school problems" you should be helping her reach her full potential and you being very negative about the exams and saying "I'll eat my shoes if she actually manages to sit the exams" might be rubbing off on your DD
Do you know how she is feeling about her exams?

Long boring backstory along with years and years of school anxiety, aspergers, bloody-minded laziness and being a foul tempered hormonal teenager.

I just stuck my head round the door and said 'are you revising' and she threw a chair at me.

Loads of stuff set up like small room, prompt, extra time, fortnightly camhs input, a ready supply of revision snacks, fancy pens, pukka pads, promised treats for revision breaks, patience and love in bucket loads and replacement bedroom doors 7 times a year.

I will eat my shoes if she gets in to sit any exams as it is highly unlikely but I and she still have to try.

That all sounds very frustrating. For you and DD.

As much as it might not seem like it at the moment, it's not the end of the world if she doesn't sit her GCSE's or fails them. She will have to do something post 16 and I would hope that with input from CAMHS etc you are getting support from someone with this.

Lifelong learning does what is says on the tin, it may be that she just isn't emotionally ready at this point to deal with this. She may become the high flyer she is clearly capable of being, just not quite yet.

The problem with school is the lack of flexibility and the whole square peg/round hole scenario.

you sound like you're doing a grand job in very difficult circumstances.