How can a predicted grade and a target grade be completely different?

[AtYourCervix]

2 weeks before GCSEs start.

Target grades mostly Bs and Cs.

Predicted grades have steadily dropped over the last few years from Bs to Ds and Es.

I'll eat my shoes if she actually manages to sit the exams so any grade is going to exceed my ecpectations but I am confused by the differences between the target and predicted.

Any insight?

Target grades are often calculated using standardised data - typically in a population, a child with x level of achievement to date will get a z grade. The closer to exams you get, the more meaningless they become.

The target grade is usually based on the Fisher Family trust data coupled with SAT's and modifiers applied for statements, Pupil Premium or Free School Meals.

The teacher usually has little say in the target grade which is why one of our rather bright students who is also quite profoundly deaf was still predicted a level 8 in music at the end of year 9.

It also goes without saying the target grade also fails to take into account the personality or aptitude of the student for a subject or academic study and how this may change completely in how they react to major life events.

The predicted grade is the teachers best estimation of what they feel the student will achieve based on their current progress.

It goes without saying that in most cases both parents and teachers have done all they can to support the student but ultimately it is up to the student whether they achieve their own potential.

If your daughter does not get the grades she requires to move on she can always consider resitting.

I registered to post this response purely because it was refreshing to read the words of someone who appears to be quite pragmatic.

I wish you both the best of luck this summer.

SecondaryTeacher
"We are accountable but in no way responsible for the outcomes"

Won't she have to retake maths and English if she doesn't get a c grade? Unless I've misunderstood what dd3's school have been trying to instil in their yr11 students this year.

Schools give target grades in a variety of ways, but basically it boils down to the progress that the student could reasonably be expected to make based on KS2 results. Schools are judged on this (levels of progress) in a similar way to the old 5 A*-C measure. Some schools keep it simple, eg the target is 3 levels of progress; some use more complex calculations taking into account things like SEN, FSM etc. They rarely have anything to do with the teacher and often ignore fairly important individual circumstances.

Good Luck for your DD

Might have a dyslexic DD1 who had a scribe for English and found tables and mental maths a struggle.

So she has a target B for English (she got L5 in the boundary mark), when a C is sadly far more likely and a target C for maths when (with luck on her side) she'll get an A.

It's a crazy and very very confusing system. It would be massively better if target grades were kept for Ofsted's averages and reports only had realistic ones.

With hugs & gin for atyourcervix and biscuits and drink of choice for DD (my DD1 actually likes pink gin and tonics, but I didn't say that).

As i understand it the target grades are what you can achieve if you apply yourself and focus on the various gcses and the predicted grades are based on what your current level of achievement is.