Yr 7 predicted grades in Year 9 - did they bear any reality to what your dcs got?

[swanthingafteranother]

Ds1 has finished Year 7. He has received an prediction of 6C across the board, apart from 7C in music. Is that quite a low estimation of his talents?
Did you find what they predicted matched up two years later, or did it spur your dcs to achieve more..

I am bit lost in understanding what the ratings actually mean..They did explain it to me in extremely complex statistical terms, but I still don't know whether ds is is low mediocre or normal for a 12 year old boy of seemingly good intelligence. They refuse to tell me how he stands in relation to rest of his class... He seems to have progressed little from his SATs scores last year, ie: Maths was 4 in SATS and he was assessed as 4c by current teacher at end of this year..

In Year 7, most students grades are low, they're adapting to high school systems. This is the same for all Years, especially in the first term as they're trying to get back into the academic state. - beware that when your ds is in Year 8/9, you may expect grade drops.

Anyways, you say the your ds is predicted a 6c in every single subjects and a 7c in music for Year 9. This isn't really a 'low estimate' of your ds' talents, it's mostly based in their KS2 grades (4 in KS2 Maths = expected a level 6 in KS3 Maths at end of Year 9.) Your ds can always improve on his levels and easily beat his target though, he's only in Year 7/nearly 8, so you should expect ds to be a 5/6 in Year 8 if he tries hard.

Basically, your ds has a target of a D grade equivalent in current GCSE terms, but if he achieves that 6 in Year 9, he will then be targeted a B at GCSE. This can obviously improve. Overall, your ds is not low or mediocre, above average if anything.

Oh, I understand now, it is all to do with GCSE grades...
Thanks, that makes a lot more sense...Sometimes I think the teachers forget to state the obvious because it is so um obvious. But he would have to get more than 6 presumably in Year 11, to get a B in GSCE in Year 11?

Once they are in year 10 they no longer get levels

I think that a Level 7 is somehow (but not really) equivalent to a Grade C GCSE.

My DSs "working at" grades and target grades are all over the place rather than straight 6s across the board.

I don't know anyhting about SAT gradings as my DC's schools don't really do them.

But I can tell you that my DC have both way outperformed what would have been expected of them at a younger age.

Thisis one of the reasons I am not enamoured by the gradings. They seem to pigeon hole DC.

6C across the board at the end of year 7 seems pretty high to me. DD is fairly bright, but her grades vary from 4A to 6A, the highest being maths and English, and the lower grades in new subjects that she didn't cover at primary school.

My dd has the same, 6C across the board - I thought it was more of a general expectation than a personal prediction. Am I wrong then?

I think that the five DC of mine who have done their GCSEs have had results which are exactly in line with their baseline data (or whatever it's called). Perhaps the most recent one slightly underperformed, but not hugely.

yellowtip do you think that's because the predictions are acuarate? Or because the expectations were set for child and teacher? Or a mixture?

Hmm, not sure. I'd expect it to be far easier to predict grades in a grammar or selective setting tbh and much more variable elsewhere, since by definition DC have achieved a certain level at the start of Y7. I've never taken any notice of levels up until now.

Bunbaker those are the predictions for Yr 9, not his grades for Year 7. The Yr 7 grades were in region of 4cs or 3bs with only 2 "5"s (the same ones he got 5 in KS2 SATS)

I think it might be worth trying to motivate ds1 to get a higher grade than he is predicted

Oh, right. I didn't realise. Good luck with your motivating. I am finding it hard to motivate DD at the moment.

With of course an peaceful interlude in holidays
Book list perhaps....

The note on dcs reports/progress sheets say
Target Level is a a mathematically derived level based on R's past performance data. It is intended to be challenging but realistic and is used to monitor progress througout the course"

FWIW we also get an estimated level which is what progress is expected by the teacher if dc carries on at the current rate

It will be easier to predict grades accurately for children who are going to comfortably hit the ceiling (whether at grammar or elsewhere) yellow.

If the Y9 targets are computer generated from KS2 data (which they most likely are) then they are average predictions based on the average child who is similar to your DS and achieved the same KS2 results. Some children will hit them, some do worse and some do better. Predicting the future especially 2 years from now is very imprecise and these targets will probably be amended based on how your DS performs in Y8.

As a rough guide, a level 6 in Y9 would probably predict a grade B in GCSE except in maths where a C would be more likely. But again that's predicting the future based merely on statistics and not on your actual child.

They don't just use SATs, they use cats and family circumstances ie area they live etc

That's what I meant by 'similar to your DS'. Free school meals status, ethnicity, sex and a load of other things are taken into account.

I don't think they are great predictions for 'a 12 year old of seemingly good intelligence' I'd be having a chat with the school.

They seem reasonable targets for a student who is getting low level 4s at the end of Y7, but I wouldn't describe that student as of 'good intelligence', more average, or slightly below expectations.

My dd is in Y7 and to be honest I am not taking much notice of her targets for the end of KS3 yet BUT I am interested in whether she is meeting her targets for the end of Y7. If I was in your position, I would be very concerned that so little progress appeared to have been made since the end of KS2 and would be asking the school for more information.

I spent years 7-9 getting stressed about my DDs levels/targets and I really shouldn't have done!
She started high school with 3 level 5s and targets for year 9 were maths 7c, english 6a and science 6b.
English was always her best subject yet she stayed on level 5 until the beginning of year 9 when she suddenly shot up to level 7. She achieved 6b in science at the end of year 7 and basically stayed on that right to end of year 9. Maths there was a steady improvement and she ended up with level 8 at end of year 9.
Don't even get me started on GCSE target grades. My DD has A targets for everything-even science where she was level 6 in year 9 so I don't know where that came from! She will not achieve A in more than a couple of subjects at GCSE-waiting for results now.

Yes quite gelatinous.

I'm surprised you think target grades for GCSE are way out mycat but schools must differ. I've found them reliable so far. Out of five DC, two were spot on, two scored slightly higher than their prediction (one by one grade in each of four subjects and one by one grade in two subjects) and the last DC scored lower than his predictions in one exam by one grade.

Oh god crazy please don't bother too much with whether your DD is meeting her targets for the end of Y7, we make them up, it's not scientific, setting yearly targets is pretty rubbish. Children progress at different rates throughout the year and in different years and this is unpredictable and completely normal.

Don't sweat the Yr7 stuff, the do like to be able to show improvements!

My DD did not do well at Yr 7 CAT tests and was estimated an average of 5 Grade A-C GCSE's. She then got 7,7,8 in Yr9 SATS and has just graduated from Cambridge.