Yr 7 predicted grades in Year 9 - did they bear any reality to what your dcs got?

[swanthingafteranother]

Ds1 has finished Year 7. He has received an prediction of 6C across the board, apart from 7C in music. Is that quite a low estimation of his talents?
Did you find what they predicted matched up two years later, or did it spur your dcs to achieve more..

I am bit lost in understanding what the ratings actually mean..They did explain it to me in extremely complex statistical terms, but I still don't know whether ds is is low mediocre or normal for a 12 year old boy of seemingly good intelligence. They refuse to tell me how he stands in relation to rest of his class... He seems to have progressed little from his SATs scores last year, ie: Maths was 4 in SATS and he was assessed as 4c by current teacher at end of this year..

My DCs end of KS3 targets bear no relation to their achievements at all. I ignore targets and just look at achievement levels.
And, if my DC seemed to have made no measureable progress in Year 7 in any of the 3 core subjects ( I think this is what you are saying?) then I would be trying to find out why.
Can you have a look at his exercise books to see whether the work set is too easy, or whether he seems to be struggling? Has he had teachers with a lot of sick leave, or who have left? Do you think he works hard? What do his teachers say at parents evening/ in his report? Is he happy at school?
Do you know if the current levels are based on an exam or on teacher assessment?

Basically a target of level 6c at the end of Y9 is assuming that a dc will make 2 sublevels progress every year between Y7 and Y9.
So if dc was 4c at the end of Y6 that would be a predicted 4a at the end of Y7.

The national average at the end of KS2 is a level 4 so being at level 4c at the end of Y7 would now be below the national average as a dc would be expected to make some progress (either one or 2 sublevels).

So the main concern is the final sentence of your post "He seems to have progressed little from his SATs scores last year, ie: Maths was 4 in SATS and he was assessed as 4c by current teacher at end of this year.." and I do think that you need to find out a bit more about why this has happened. In primary schools they often do give extra support to dcs to make sure that they reach level 4 and it could be that now this has been taken away your ds has slipped back. Are there any more clues in a longer report or do you just have a sheet of grade levels and targets. Yes, you may be worrying unnecessarily and he may catch up next year, but a good school should also have concerns about dcs that do not seem to be making much progress.

noblegiraffe I suspected they were made up!

I asked the school whether they were individual targets, cohort targets or arbitrary targets.

She avoided the question quite expertly I feel!

Our school head said these were the basis for measuring the SCHOOL's performance, not the child's. In other words, the computer says your average level-4 child should be able to reach these grades in two years, given average teaching (and average teenage motivation). Otherwise the school will have reduced its 'value-added' score.