Dancing with tiers in my eyes, Weeping for the memory of a life gone by

[dancemom]

New thread, a very appropriate title I feel ...

Ventilation has been pushed since the start @Scottishskifun. One in ten secondary pupils are currently infected. It's not great.

@StarryEyeSurprise

Ventilation has been pushed since the start *@Scottishskifun*. One in ten secondary pupils are currently infected. It's not great.

It's massively gone up the list of importance of reducing transmission since alpha variant. At the start it was all about washing hands, not touching things including bonkers things like outdoor play equipment! The arrival of alpha and subsequently delta has shown that ventilation is a very big contributor more than surfaces. Hence the SG is collecting data on cases associated with ventilation aspects such as offices where control measures and cleaning are in place.

@StarryEyeSurprise

Ventilation has been pushed since the start *@Scottishskifun*. One in ten secondary pupils are currently infected. It's not great.

You asked if pupils were wearing masks in class on the other thread, yet you seem very well informed?

They need to be out of masks. One in ten infected means the masks are doing feck all. It’s because they’re still testing that one in ten is being found.
Why are we all still finger pointing at young people? Honestly, do some digging and you’ll discover a massive uplift in the figures around mental health problems in early high school years- those that made the transition from primary to secondary all under the header of Covid. It’s been hideous for them.

I get about two pupils per class who I have to remind to wear their masks properly, the rest don't seem to have any bother with them. (They are young people who would mostly speak up if they did!) I have no way of knowing what the rates would be if they did not have masks, does anyone? And speaking to the many pupils I've had retuning after a bout of covid, it seems an even split between those who hardly noticed they had it and those who found it pretty awful.

@Mistressiggi the only indicator would be looking at case rate differences for age groups between England and Scotland as England got rid of masks in classrooms around May. But this is also pretty tricky to compare as figures for age group stats are recorded differently England is 10-19 whilst Scotland is 0-14 and 15-19.

If you look at total data which is the full pandemic but be aware that availability of testing wasn't easy til around August last year.

The stats for case total per 100,000 which is the easiest way to see differences is
England 10-19yr olds 20,010 per 100,000 with 0-10 Yr old being 7,100 per 100,000.

Scotland 15-19 year olds 21,068 per 100,000 with 0-14 Yr old 11,907 per 100,000
These figures are from travelling tabby. So with a smaller age range Scotland has a greater case rate per 100,000 total for the pandemic.
This is obviously pretty crude and includes all cases but given English schools haven't had masks in lessons for 4 months it's not at crazy levels and the rate is lower than Scotland which has still got masks.

Wow thank you Scottishskifun, that was very detailed!
I will be interested to see how many pupils come back vaccinated after half term (not that I would ask them, but some like to tell you)

As said its a pretty crude whole pandemic picture but we do know that case rates were much lower in children until alpha came along.
A better indicator would be looking at case rates per 100,000 for those cohorts from May for Scotland and England which I'm sure exist somewhere on the Internet!

It needs to be done per 100,000 in order to do any even rough comparison due to different population sizes but the fact that England and Scotland have the different age cohorts again makes it difficult to compare! (the mistrusting in me almost thinks this is done on purpose..... 😂)

Should also caveat with we don't have data to where the age groups contracted it either. Both the English and Scottish track and trace systems are woeful and don't backward trace properly.

But with 4 months of no masks compared to masks in schools, England doesn't have a crazy spike in the age group compared to Scotland (with Scotlands currently higher) so the argument they reduce cases isn't currently translating in the data (all be it my crude quick version which is a bit like the back of a fag packet drawing!)

Most probably because ventilation research has shown with delta due to the particle size and viral load required to catch the infection once you have 30 children in a poorly ventilated place even with masks there will be build up which allows people to catch the virus despite a mask (unless FFP2 or greater). The nature of school is sitting in a classroom for an hour usually.

@Scottishskifun my family all only wear reusable masks for environmental reasons but I wonder why we don't we use FFP2 here like some other countries do? It's never been pushed.
Is it cost? Environmental? do you know?

Are the oft-quoted studies based on the piece of cloth I use or FFP2? This has all got me wondering about what I'm sending my kids out in?

@OnceUponAWhine The one in ten secondary pupils currently infected with covid relates to England. I don't know what the figure is for Scotland but I can't imagine it's as high. Anyone able to find it?

Possibly controversial take, but I'm going to say that children getting COVID (and therefore a bit more immunity) is no bad thing, and will help England come out of their current mini-wave quicker.

In fact, I predict that cases will get nowhere near 100k a day, and in the next week or two will start to fall again due to waning immunity from vaccines being countered by boosters and natural infections in the young. If I'm wrong, feel free to say 'I told you so', but I really can't see this spiralling out of control and think Andrew Pollard has this one about right - we have high levels of immunity now and there just aren't that many places left for the virus to go.

I agree @Y0uCann0tBeSer10us and I don’t think it’s accidental.

I think the rates were higher in Scotland but not now. Peaks and troughs.

[quote sartorius]@Scottishskifun my family all only wear reusable masks for environmental reasons but I wonder why we don't we use FFP2 here like some other countries do? It's never been pushed.
Is it cost? Environmental? do you know?

Are the oft-quoted studies based on the piece of cloth I use or FFP2? This has all got me wondering about what I'm sending my kids out in?[/quote]
My understanding is that originally "face coverings" were specified, and specifically not medical grade masks, to preserve the proper PPE for people who needed it. That may still be partly the idea, but now supply is much greater, that seems less of an issue. And as you say, other countries require them now, so supply can't be the entire problem. Possibly price, I suppose... maybe the thinking is that people will be more likely to wear a mask if it doesn't cost them £1 a pop, but i'd have thought they'd just reuse them more if that was the case (and they presumably become less effective with reuse).

I recently got some new fabric masks to make up free shipping for another order, and my original 3 are close to having actual holes in from washing . They were £4 for a pack of 3 and would give NS the heebie jeebies... they are made of the thinnest muslin cotton imaginable, albeit 2 layers, and I can breathe perfectly happily in them and blow out a candle through them with no trouble, suggesting they have absolutely no impact on viral spread. And they only stay on my face if I twizzle the straps round my ears, forming a huge channel round my cheek to funnel air behind me as well as in front. But they meet the legal requirement, so I'm good. Im under no illusion they are doing anything other than acting as a giant hanky if I accidentally cough or sneeze, and even DS realises they are pointless (virus size vs weave size in fabric). I'm pretty sure the research done saying they were better than nothing used those papery surgical masks, though I'm not as up on that research as others! I'm sure I saw something in the early days saying that the fabric ones (especially the "buff" types, though I think because of the fabric used in the ones they tested, rather than the style) were lowest effectiveness of a variety of masks they tested (all other things kept the same), but I also imagine it depends on lots of other factors.

I don't think it's environmental concerns at all as other pandemic policies haven't prioritised that at all... in fact, encourage use of disposable things for "hygiene reasons" (wipes, sanitiser, no use of reusable cups in coffee shops, dispose of x, y, z after use... etc) which seems to go against years of efforts organisations have been taking to move in the other direction, but hey. Obviously, if disposable ones are mandated I'd wear them, but my inner ecohippy would be throwing a right wobbly.

Youcannotbeserious - it may well be "no bad thing" on a population level but on an individual level it's been a very bad thing for two of my students who have missed so much of their SQA course that they will struggle to pass. And others who've missed enough to lower their grade, unless they work like the blazes for the next few months.

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us

Possibly controversial take, but I'm going to say that children getting COVID (and therefore a bit more immunity) is no bad thing, and will help England come out of their current mini-wave quicker.

In fact, I predict that cases will get nowhere near 100k a day, and in the next week or two will start to fall again due to waning immunity from vaccines being countered by boosters and natural infections in the young. If I'm wrong, feel free to say 'I told you so', but I really can't see this spiralling out of control and think Andrew Pollard has this one about right - we have high levels of immunity now and there just aren't that many places left for the virus to go.

Yes, this sounds reasonable. We could get to 100,000 cases I suppose, in the depths of winter, but it seems unlikely given earlier peaks were 50/60k I think. And of course, that was without vaccines and caused much greater stress on the NHS.

In fact, if you look at how the 7 day rate is changing over time, the UK seems to be at/ just over the peak of that now, suggesting that the rate of increase will decrease, and eventually cases will come down in the next couple of weeks. I mean, the pattern could change from previous waves, I suppose, but not sure what is different now.

@ResilienceWanker, I've seen that data too, and I agree - it does very much look like England's most recent 'bump' (I'm not sure it even counts as a 'wave') is slowing down and will then naturally recede. The last remaining susceptible groups of children are disappearing as they either catch the virus or get a vaccine (if they choose to, fine by me if they don't as immunity is what matters), and data shows the boosters in the elderly are very effective. Those are going at over 200k per day now and should reduce hospitalisations and deaths massively.

@Mistressiggi yes, I mean at a population level as it's plugging the gaps in the 'immune wall' for the virus to get through and generally doesn't cause serious harm to children. If two of your students were so ill they've missed large chunks of their course I'm sorry for them (although that age group could now get vaccinated if they choose to). If they've missed the course because they've had to isolate I think that's a different conversation really about how much weight we give to stopping spread vs children's education. I was glad to see the head of the Royal College of Paediatrics call for an end to testing children as it means the exclusion of large numbers of healthy children from school (most COVID positive children are asymptomatic and so not ill, and also much less likely to spread).

Not isolating, no one's out isolating for more than a day now (to get a test result). 2-3 weeks off with the actual Covid but then exhausted and brain fog when they've returned, so not exactly catching up.

[quote sartorius]@Scottishskifun my family all only wear reusable masks for environmental reasons but I wonder why we don't we use FFP2 here like some other countries do? It's never been pushed.
Is it cost? Environmental? do you know?

Are the oft-quoted studies based on the piece of cloth I use or FFP2? This has all got me wondering about what I'm sending my kids out in?[/quote]
Initially it was supply aspect and these level masks were critical for ICU/paramedics if collecting covid positive patients etc.
Now its a cost aspect if they say they are needed in general life then they will need to realistic provide them to all front line healthcare professionals. There were calls to do.
The studies based around ventilation are on standard 3 level masks.
The study on FFP2 masks in healthcare professionals found they stopped 100% of the virus.
Personally having worn FFP2 for work in a previous job I wouldn't ask children to wear them. They are uncomfortable, hot and leave a lovely indent. They are also supposed to be face fitted and you may have to try several different ones and learn how to face fit properly to use them effectively. The full proper way is then to test if you can smell or taste a not very pleasant emission etc. You can use guidance videos to help.

Cloth masks and surgical to a certain extent (although surgical are better) are useful for reducing brief face to face transmission. Spending time sat in a classroom or a poorly ventilated space and after a while they don't stop build up due to the small particle size for delta that escapes and less needed to catch covid. They did more for the original variant which needed a much bigger particle size.

@Mistressiggi tell your pupils to check out long covid support groups on Facebook there is a lot of info about supplements which can help. Appreciate as a teacher you can't say to them to try x! My Dr couldn't tell me to try them which is really frustrating as actually they take a few weeks to kick in and they have helped me a lot with fatigue.

Thanks @Scottishskifun and @ResilienceWanker
All useful to know

• 2,902 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 35,188 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 8.8% of these were positive
• 19 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 60 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 894 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,299,649 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination and 3,888,408 have received their second dose

• 2,403 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 30,051 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 8.7% of these were positive
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive*
• 61 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 896 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,302,382 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 3,890,477 have received their second dose

Thanks @dancemom it just seems to be holding steady really?

I actually worry about what it's going to be like in Glasgow over the next few weeks. So many protests planned and people just seem so angry. I seen today bags of rubbish dumped outside the city chambers.

I don't know what I'm trying to say I suppose but it's a wee bit scary

It seems we are steady around 300ish per 100,000 rate amazing what we now go yeah that's alright with hopefully it's showing we are all learning to live with it scottish govt included! A few months ago anything over 1000 cases was eekkk! Last August Aberdeen was put in lockdown for being over 25 per 100,000!

Let's hope it doesn't get too heated in Glasgow, I must admit I saw a programme which stated looking forward to giving a Glaswegian welcome to COP26.... I did think that could go either way depending on who is giving the welcome! Let's hope it's the nice sort!

It depends what a "case" actually means. Are they mostly very ill, or are they positive but mostly not so ill?

The case rate in Glasgow is below the Scottish average now, presumably because of a higher level of natural immunity after higher numbers of cases.

I don't understand why there's so much talk about so many unvaccinated people coming into Glasgow. Won't the journos be vaccinated? 120ish world leaders - they're surely vaccinated. Demonstrators will be mostly British?