Tieribly angry wee fannies fannying about with the tiers

[dancemom]

Things moved quickly so I just started a new one ...

I think when English schools go back the English figures will go through the roof.

If we take ours at 6500-7000 a day compared to our population it’s roughly going to be ten times that for England isn’t it ? Based on their population ?

So guess around 70,000 cases a day at their back to school peak first week and second week of term

I remember reading articles a while back saying “ Covid cases will be 100,000 a day by autumn “ and thinking what a lot of sensationalist crap , but I don’t think it will be far off it now once English schools go back

Purely anecdotal but within our group of friends DC and parents lots of people have it , every class in our DC primary school with multiple cases. I’ve never seen it this bad at school.

But @RubyJam the English summer term didn't end until a few weeks after us, so perhaps more cases out of the way at that time.

I remember DSs last week of summer term it's like the tidal wave of exponential case numbers had just started, but school holidays have just postponed it until now.

I really hope the cases don't go crazy in England. It does feel like we're lurching out of control again- even with vaccines.

Oh well should get my PCR results tomorrow - in a way I want it to be positive as I feel really ropey and feels like a proper reason not to work. TBH 10 days without going out seems like a good idea right now.

What I don't get is that the spiral upwards started before schools went back but as usual it's kids being blamed. Isn't it just as likely caused by English tourists visiting Scotland after their schools broke up.

To be honest I don't care anymore.

They are desperate to jag kids and shut pubs

@Pootle40

What I don't get is that the spiral upwards started before schools went back but as usual it's kids being blamed. Isn't it just as likely caused by English tourists visiting Scotland after their schools broke up.

To be honest I don't care anymore.

Unlikely leading scientist last year showed the Sept spike wasn't caused by tourists visiting Scotland either but was caused by Scots returning from holidays.

Its from more people mixing which is normal but then holding off restriction easing then loads of kids in classrooms means there is no separation of the increases and back into poorly ventilated environments where its easy to spread.

It's nobodies fault other than the SG who refused to ease during the majority of summer holidays when more people would have spent time outside.

Actually yes, @Scottishskifun, I’m sure that this was predicted on here when they said delaying lifting restrictions.

@Pootle40

What I don't get is that the spiral upwards started before schools went back but as usual it's kids being blamed. Isn't it just as likely caused by English tourists visiting Scotland after their schools broke up.

To be honest I don't care anymore.

God... Don't put that idea into their head (again). They'll start on the whole "don't you dirty English come up here, passing on your germs to us" spiel. Like last autumn.

Yep many could see it coming a mile off but NS has to show that she's more cautious than BJ and she's "doing everything to protect public health" 🙄

It's backfired spectacularly though and now she is stuck trying to save face not backtrack again

I'm sure we are due an announcement saying NS would've jagged kids earlier if only those bad old medical control groups had gotten their act together and now she's sadly having to close pubs etc.

England will gently rise and fall from now on, because it has reached the HIT, and will hover on a roughly stable level of infections / hospitalisations for the next few years.

Scotland is a bit away from HIT, but the rate of change of growth has started to shift down, which is an early signal that case growth till turn sometime soonish. We're also not far off having run out of young people to infect, but we've been more cautious through the pandemic, so we had more to work through.

Then, like England, we'll bob along for years at a modest level of cases / hospitalisations.

That's it. That's how it goes.

• 6,170 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 57,279 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 11.5% of these were positive
• 9 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 59 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 629 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,108,804 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 3,691,066 have received their second dose

Thanks as ever for posting @dancemom .
It's not looking good . I mean logically I know that numbers must be high since just about everyone I know is testing, positive or waiting for results.

I need to check on travelling tabby what the lines are like for hospitalisations and deaths.

@Dissimilitude

England will gently rise and fall from now on, because it has reached the HIT, and will hover on a roughly stable level of infections / hospitalisations for the next few years.

Scotland is a bit away from HIT, but the rate of change of growth has started to shift down, which is an early signal that case growth till turn sometime soonish. We're also not far off having run out of young people to infect, but we've been more cautious through the pandemic, so we had more to work through.

Then, like England, we'll bob along for years at a modest level of cases / hospitalisations.

That's it. That's how it goes.

Thanks for that @Dissimilitude, it was the voice of reason I needed to hear

@WouldBeGood

Actually yes, *@Scottishskifun*, I’m sure that this was predicted on here when they said delaying lifting restrictions.

I think that was me. When Chris Whitty explained the rationale behind continuing with England's freedom day in July and the importance of getting the exit wave out of the way during the summer when the schools were off, it was clear that we would run into issues when our 'freedom' coincided with schools returning.

In other prescient comments:

"Ms Sturgeon highlights the difficulties the Delta variant is posing.
She says we must all play a part with mitigations."

Nailed it! I knew she'd blame this on variants, despite the fact that the rest of the UK (indeed the world) is dealing with the same variants. Pure deflection from the obviously poor choices regarding opening up.

Thanks @Y0uCann0tBeSer10us I knew it!

Yeah.. the variants bollocks.

She’s made a pigs ear of this

I see they are proposing vaccine certificates for night clubs

I think that’s just wrong @titsintiers. I saw that these actually dissuade people from getting jagged too, rather than encourage it. There’s been a big study done.

And the attendees at COP26 do not require to be vaccinated

@rookiemere

Thanks as ever for posting *@dancemom* . It's not looking good . I mean logically I know that numbers must be high since just about everyone I know is testing, positive or waiting for results. I need to check on travelling tabby what the lines are like for hospitalisations and deaths.

They are hospitalisations WITH Covid. I want to know how many of that number are actually ill in hospital with Covid ? Otherwise the numbers mean sweet F.A.

Yes, @Pootle40. I saw the phrase “incidental Covid” used today by a doctor as regards admissions.

Surely it’s really important to know?

Ok so the Travellingtabbey graph is quite reassuring. Hospitalisations have gone up proportionately but nothing like they were when cases went up pre vaccine. Deaths seem to be plateuing or going down.

I take your point @Pootle40 but I doubt we'll ever get a totally clear view of that information, just as I'd like to know how many in hospital have underlying conditions or are overweight.

I suppose ultimately it doesn't matter as the pure numbers are allegedly what guides action from the SG, although thinking about it hopefully it doesn't.

Back to when English schools go back etc, etc. What do people think they’re doing at the moment, staying home and not on holiday/partying with friends from school? That’s without masks on in shops, restaurants, clubs, festivals etc. Reminder also that they will not be required to be muzzled at school from next week, unlike our children who have proven that masks stop the spread, not a jot!
No English counties appear in the WHO chart, probably also because nobody is testing for no reason there.
I’m happy to be corrected in the next month if suddenly there’s massive outbreaks (with symptoms and positive tests) but I really doubt it will be anything like here.

My daughter was informed she was a close contact of a positive case at nursery on Monday, tested yesterday and was found to be positive today. :( Edinburgh seems to be absolutely rife with it at the moment. We had to queue for an hour at Gracemount for a PCR test today.

Bit unsure about how long to isolate my daughter for - she had an upset stomach on Saturday which is apparently a covid symptom but not sure if we start the isolation from then, or from when she had the test. Test and Trace haven't been in touch.

@ecthelion it's from start of symptoms or positive test but only really Dr's and zoe app recognise an upset tummy as a symptom which makes it tricky. If you guys test positive then it's in material really as it will be 10 days from your positive test.

It's so busy that I think they might be back to only phoning high risk spread cases and everyone else fills in a online form instead.

If you test negative and test and trace haven't given you a date then maybe take the difference if Monday!
The studies have shown that young children process it much faster than adults and then become non infectious quicker than adults.

Just in case anyone is interested, the test for DS yesterday (Glasgow area) took 24 hours almost exactly to come back (negative).