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Scotsnet

Welcome to Scotsnet - discuss all aspects of life in Scotland, including relocating, schools and local areas.

Tiering up the Covid elimination strategy

999 replies

dancemom · 26/05/2021 20:04

Sadly the end was not as close as we thought so new thread required ....

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Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 01/06/2021 18:15

I think the literature consensus is that asymptomatic people are much less likely to be spread than people who are actually ill. Which makes sense really, if people are coughing etc they are likely spreading more virus.

Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 02/06/2021 09:14

Interesting quote from Prof John Bell this morning:

"I do think we need to keep our eye on hospitalisations, serious disease and deaths which is really what we are trying to manage.

"If we scamper down a rabbit hole every time we see a new variant we are going to spend a long time huddled away so we do need to keep a bit of balance to the discussion and keep our eyes on the serious disease we are trying to prevent."

It's reassuring to see more and more experts actually going on record to say we need some balance rather than the 'lockdown to be safe' narrative. It will be interesting to see what England does in a couple of weeks - will they open up anyway because serious disease is low (and widen the gap in freedoms even further between England and Scotland) or will they pause too.

WouldBeGood · 02/06/2021 09:22

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us that sounds very sensible.

Twitter saying Number 10 sick of these advisers touring the media peddling doom. And that Boris keen to press ahead, so fingers crossed.

dancemom · 02/06/2021 14:06

• 677 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 26,258 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 2.8% of these were positive
• 1 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 10 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 114 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 3,286,261 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 2,106,177 have received their second dose

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dancemom · 02/06/2021 14:07

447,072 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 75,701 1st doses / 279,285 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 18,971 / 30,946
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 5,435 / 19,716
NI 8,400 / 8,618

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latissimusdorsi · 02/06/2021 14:29

677Confused
Anyone else hearing of lot of cases in primary schools?

jennyfromtheblock22 · 02/06/2021 14:37

677! Bloody hell.

rookiemere · 02/06/2021 14:39

Numbers are high - not a problem if they don't lead to hospitalisations or deaths, but I guess I'd be a bit cautious if I was FM.

@latissimusdorsi yes a few local school cases - one where a poor DC had to do his "Not Higher" remotely as a result and then the wifi stalled for a while. I feel so sorry for the exam DCs, I have no idea how fair grades can be awarded in the circumstances.

DS is in S3 and they've been told that if they don't do well enough in a certain subject test they may be moved to Nat4 rather than Nat5.I'm hoping it's just pushing them to revise as if it actually happens I'll not be happy as no child has had the opportunity to learn to their best abilities this year and any concerns should have been flagged up a lot earlier than now.

Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 02/06/2021 14:45

It looks like a large jump in cases, but I imagine it's just the bank holiday backlog coming through and will level out in the next few days. I'm more concerned with hospitalisations tbh, which look to be creeping up but very slowly (presumably mostly from unvaccinated groups), and ICU/deaths look quite stable. It's been a month since 'cases' started rising so I find this quite encouraging.

Pootle40 · 02/06/2021 14:46

Time to stop the testing.

WouldBeGood · 02/06/2021 14:49

Yes @Pootle40.

And no need for daily case numbers now. Hospitals clearly fine. Time for level -1

ResilienceWanker · 02/06/2021 15:05

Eek... Yes, that is quite a big jump. It's odd that cases (and hospitalisations) seem to be increasing so much more here than in the rest of the UK. There are hotspots down south, but they don't seem to have "spread out" as much as up here. I assume it's something to do with the "Glasgow mega-city" in that the surrounding areas are sucked into Glasgow, in terms of work/ services/ shops etc. But surely that's the same with eg Bolton, which I assume is pretty structurally linked to the rest of the Manchester area. It just seems a bit odd.

Would still be interesting to know if the hospitalisations are actually due to covid complications, too - or just more cases in the community automatically showing up as more cases in hospital inpatients. Someone was on the news earlier saying that now about 5% of positive cases ended up in hospital rather than 10% earlier on, and were spending less time there - suggesting treatment was getting better and cases less serious. So it sounds that someone knows what the hospitalisations are for... but it doesn't seem to be from the public data! And again, hospitalisations in the rest of the UK don't seem to be increasing even though cases are, a little bit. So, is that the same down south, or are there proportionally more hospitalisations up here. Or are we counting the numbers differently?!

Scotland just seems to be having its own little Covid Moment, which is a bit depressing. It's not like we've been let to run riot while the rest of the UK has been STAYING SAFE ffs.

WouldBeGood · 02/06/2021 15:09

Shows that all this extra lockdown doesn’t work. Time to stop staying safe and start living.

ResilienceWanker · 02/06/2021 15:10

Oh, and Yay... Edinburgh's overtaken Glasgow for the top spot today.138 vs 120. Confused

Pootle40 · 02/06/2021 15:14

@WouldBeGood

Shows that all this extra lockdown doesn’t work. Time to stop staying safe and start living.
Yes to that. 'Stay safe'....'fuck off' is my response to that!
Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 02/06/2021 15:17

@ResilienceWanker I've been watching Scotland's cases wrt the rest of the UK and have also wondered why we have been pretty consistently higher for a couple of months now despite the longer, harder lockdowns. I suspect it's linked to our population antibody titre being significantly lower (by about 10 % or so) than England's at the last count. Our vaccination programme was quite a lot slower to get going and seems to be suffering now from structural problems, which might account for some of it, but I also wonder if ironically (and somewhat perversely) our stricter lockdowns are part of the issue. Perhaps while low risk people have been mixing and building up population immunity down south, we just haven't done that 'work' yet.

ResilienceWanker · 02/06/2021 15:23

@WouldBeGood

Shows that all this extra lockdown doesn’t work. Time to stop staying safe and start living.
I don't disagree. But I do get twitchy, just cos the SG aren't known for their single-minded striving for a goal (apart from THAT one, of course) and will happily panic and bolt down a lockdown rabbit hole at seeing increasing cases. Despite having said previously that cases aren't the most important thing... it's hospitalisations/ deaths/ stopping NHS collapse that matter...
WouldBeGood · 02/06/2021 15:24

Yeah. Just fucked off.

randomsabreuse · 02/06/2021 15:33

My DC's primary school has had a couple of cases recently having had no cases up to this point.

Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 02/06/2021 15:38

The latest antibody survey from the ONS

Estimated adults with antibodies are: England 75.9%, Wales 76.6%, NI 75.0%, and Scotland bringing up the rear with 68.6%. Detectable antibodies are only one aspect of immunity, but the comparison does indicate lower population immunity in Scotland. Since fewer people with immunity means the virus finds it easier to spread, it makes sense that cases are surging (relatively speaking) in Scotland compared to elsewhere in the UK. I do suspect we are now seeing the downside from the stricter lockdown (quite apart from the obvious direct harms of lockdown), which might mean we're even more restricted going forward compared to England as we try to get the vaccination programme up to speed and those figures up.

ResilienceWanker · 02/06/2021 15:39

[quote Y0uCann0tBeSer10us]@ResilienceWanker I've been watching Scotland's cases wrt the rest of the UK and have also wondered why we have been pretty consistently higher for a couple of months now despite the longer, harder lockdowns. I suspect it's linked to our population antibody titre being significantly lower (by about 10 % or so) than England's at the last count. Our vaccination programme was quite a lot slower to get going and seems to be suffering now from structural problems, which might account for some of it, but I also wonder if ironically (and somewhat perversely) our stricter lockdowns are part of the issue. Perhaps while low risk people have been mixing and building up population immunity down south, we just haven't done that 'work' yet.[/quote]
Yes, you may well be onto something there, re the building of immunity. Didn't realise our antibodies were so much lower.

I did wonder if it was because we (surprisingly) were allowed inside for food etc before England, so were seeing more of a rise from that. But as you say, we've had higher cases for a while even before that, and England doesn't seem to be seeing the same rise, even though they have had the same allowances for a good few weeks now.

The vaccination thing is weird, though. There seems to have been so many more issues with rollout in Scotland, but looking at the figures of the vaccinated, there doesn't seem to be much in it in terms of the %. (England and Wales are slightly ahead in terms of the % of adults jagged, but not in terms of the whole population, as Scotland has fewer children - though they wouldn't be jagged at the moment anyway). I assume the more rapid rollout down south is actually missing quite a few people from each age group (not motivated, forget, can't get appointments at nearby hub etc), so they'll have to "mop up" quite a few at the end, whereas our tedious letters are personally contacting everybody, eventually, so people are more likely to actually get to an appointment, even though it's later than the same age in england/ wales. But it's just conjecture on my part really. Something's going on, as yes, our cases are proportionately about double the rest of the UK!

Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 02/06/2021 15:56

@ResilienceWanker I agree, there doesn't seem to be a huge difference in the % vaccinated between the nations that would account for the huge surge of cases in Scotland (I knew we were higher but I just looked at the latest and bloody hell, it is about double any other UK nation!). The rate of increase is also quite considerably faster in Scotland than England too (Wales and NI flat or falling). Perhaps it's higher because when we opened up we were starting from a lower immunity base (because lower risk people have had less chance to mix?) so the virus has been more able to take hold now?

All this said though, even if the virus is spreading faster (and given how risk averse NS is I can see that this would seriously spook her), if people aren't get seriously ill it doesn't really matter that much.

latissimusdorsi · 02/06/2021 16:09

@ResilienceWanker

Oh, and Yay... Edinburgh's overtaken Glasgow for the top spot today.138 vs 120. Confused

This may well be related to the 2 primaries that had to shut though. Schools are the Midlothian issue.
West Lothian also seeing classes sent home to isolate

Bytheloch · 02/06/2021 16:17

@WouldBeGood

Shows that all this extra lockdown doesn’t work. Time to stop staying safe and start living.
Remember “we’re not giving in”

Those adverts give me the rage. Angry

WouldBeGood · 02/06/2021 16:22

Christ, me too @Bytheloch.

This is also probably due to the ridiculous zero Covid strategy pursued by the SG until now