The Fall Out Continues - thread 6

[TheShadowyFeminist]

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When it comes to policy. I think rather than adding more Calvinist sticks, we need more compassion and support. More mental health service and rehab.

Agreed

Its Ironic that NS wants to do away with the 'not proven' verdict when that's essentially the verdict that Hamilton came to regarding her own conduct.

Ha I thought the same about the not proven verdict, that and, having made a mess of hate crime, do we want the SNP to tamper with even more fundamentals? And something else along the lines of, the cheek of it, having let women down over retrospective prosecutions due to Scot gov bungling, to then come out and say the issue is the legal system.

I suppose people prone to reflection and taking their share of the blame don't go into politics.

@StatisticallyChallenged

WOuld it surprise you I was already looking that up *@TheShadowyFeminist*?

Remarkably similar numbers at the moment, but a very different trajectory

2000= 292
2001= 332
2002= 382
2003= 317
2004= 356
2005= 336
2006= 421
2007= 455
2008= 574
2009= 545
2010= 485
2011= 584
2012= 581
2013= 527
2014= 614
2015= 706
2016= 868
2017= 934
2018= 1,187
2019= 1,264

For interest I also found comparative stats with England/Wales etc
In 2018 (latest data for this)

England - 48 drug related deaths per million
Wales - 66
NI - 58
Scotland - 218. Nearly 4.6 times the rate of England

Bloody hell. That’s stark.

Its Ironic that NS wants to do away with the 'not proven' verdict when that's essentially the verdict that Hamilton came to regarding her own conduct.

His remit was only to establish whether she had broken the ministerial code and he concluded she had not. There was no 'not proven' about it

Isn't it just @Itwasjustresting. Currently value isn't far off the peak alcohol deaths, but whilst they've been stable/declining the drugs are doing the opposite

this is a really interesting paper, it highlights the effects of poverty, austerity and the common habit of mixing different types of drugs which is especially dangerous. www.rcpe.ac.uk/sites/default/files/drugs_deaths_in_scotland_report_final_0.pdf
What it doesn’t explain is why it is so much higher in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK? I remember a More or Less R4 programme looking at the Scottish drug stats and while they are reported differently in each country it did seem to be that the drug death stats are correct for Scotland. I wouldn’t have thought that mental health services and/or drug treatment centres etc are significantly better in the rest of the UK, so what’s going on?

@Blurberoo I think it’s linked to poverty.

And the rising attainment gap in education won’t help. It’s terribly sad. Scotland used to be a world leader in education and innovation.

The increase in recent years has been linked to increasing restrictions on prescribed drugs. This has led to addicts using more unregulated street benzos. There has also been a diversion of funding away from residential rehab and a consequent shortage of beds.

This is on top of an underlying trend of an ageing addict population and increased using.

Poverty in Scotland is no worse than many other parts of the UK but our drugs figures are worse.

[quote WouldBeGood]@Blurberoo I think it’s linked to poverty.

And the rising attainment gap in education won’t help. It’s terribly sad. Scotland used to be a world leader in education and innovation.[/quote]
Is the attainment gap rising? Do you have a link for that? A quick google suggests not but you may have access to something else?

@Blurberoo

this is a really interesting paper, it highlights the effects of poverty, austerity and the common habit of mixing different types of drugs which is especially dangerous. www.rcpe.ac.uk/sites/default/files/drugs_deaths_in_scotland_report_final_0.pdf What it doesn’t explain is why it is so much higher in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK? I remember a More or Less R4 programme looking at the Scottish drug stats and while they are reported differently in each country it did seem to be that the drug death stats are correct for Scotland. I wouldn’t have thought that mental health services and/or drug treatment centres etc are significantly better in the rest of the UK, so what’s going on?

www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2021/feb/26/the-glasgow-effect-examining-the-citys-life-expectancy-gap-a-photo-essay

Moves the blame to government policy 'managed decline'

In Glasgow at least

The Glasgow effect is fascinating, we've known about it for a long time but explanations are subjective and challenging and action to address is is consequently difficult. Just for comparison, both the drugs and alcohol stats give breakdowns by council so I've looked at these and posted some info below.

According to a quick google these are the populations of the major city councils
Aberdeen = 200, 680
Dundee = 148, 710
Edinburgh - 524, 930
Glasgow = 633,120

Drugs Deaths in 2019
Aberdeen = 44 (220 per Million)
Dundee = 72 (486 per million)
Edinburgh = 96 (183/million)
Glasgow = 279 (441/million)

Alcohol Deaths in 2019
Aberdeen = 32 (160/million)
Dundee = 32 (216/million)
Edinburgh = 80 (152/million)
Glasgow = 165 (260/million)

Overall scottish population is around 5,454,000.
2019 alcohol deaths = 1141 (209 per million)
2019 drug deaths =1264 (231 per million)

Obviously looking at just the city councils doesn't give the full picture, especially for Glasgow where a lot of the suburbs that you'd still consider "Glasgow" in general terms are in other council areas. For drugs they actually give the deaths/100k for every council area based on a 5 year average, so it's lower than the figures above due to the current rapid rise. These are the council areas which are at or above the national average:
Dundee City
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
East Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
Renfrewshire
Aberdeen City
West Dunbartonshire
Clackmannanshire
North Lanarkshire
Falkirk

This to me shows two things - the Glasgow effect is alive and well, especially when you look at the list of the wider council areas as there's a pronounced Glasgow/West Coast bias there. But also; is there a Dundee effect too? I don't know what the overall death stats look like but the drug stats in particular are pretty grim.

I can totally appreciate that there are many tangible after effects of the deindustrialisation of Glasgow during the Thatcher years but surely there are equivalent cities in England- Hull or Liverpool for instance. This article by David Liddell, CEO of the Scottish Drug Forum www.sdf.org.uk/blog-poverty-is-the-root-of-scotlands-fatal-drug-overdose-crisis/ does say that poly drug use because of low dose prescriptions being topped up is a real killer, he also says “The other issue around treatment is that we only have about 40% of people in treatment at any one time whereas, for example, England has 60%. We also have an issue with people not being retained in services well so we need to also improve retention in services.”
But still- it can’t all be centred in Glasgow and it doesn’t explain to me the huge difference in figures. I can see why use of cheap drugs ordered on the internet and rising poverty levels would cause deaths to rise but why so much higher in Scotland?
Apologies for the derailment!

No, Glasgow only refers to GCC and not the suburbs as they're under different councils like ED, WD, NL Renfrewshire etc.
There is obviously a drugs problem which needs to move from a legal to a public health issue but this has been rejected at WM. That's not to say there shouldn't be more done by the SG. For example, a country wide roll out of vouchers teenagers can use to access activities at sports centres and more community centres built ( to keep teenagers busy and away from the drugs). Just like the hugely successful reduction in violent crime in Scotland, especially Glasgow, a whole picture approach is needed and targeted input when people are young. Also, for those already addicted, safe consumption rooms made legal. Portugal had one of the highest rate of drugs deaths in Europe and now have near enough the lowest. It's very do able. The UK strategy as a whole ( drugs as a criminal issue) doesn't work. England and Wales have their highest ever drugs deaths. We need to work together to change this ( although the SG's request was rejected) or have The Drugs Misuse Act become devolved. Jailing those with drugs issues doesn't work.

On another note, I've just heard that the latest Scottish vaccine is stepping up production this week.

Also, as a step towards looking at the full picture, the SG changed the way drugs deaths are recorded in Scotland so its not only those that died as a result of an overdose but any deaths where people had drugs in their system. Most countries don't do this.

@Blurberoo that blog seems to explain it very well. It’s very sad. I agree that some people are indeed seen as expendable. And again, the gap between poor and better off in Scotland shown to be much more than in the other contries mentioned. Really interesting.

And the claim about the different counting of drug deaths was discredited. No matter how yiu count Scotland is very high.

Good news on the Scottish vaccine though!

Scottish vaccine?

They are so so high! Way than all the other European countries. I can imagine that cuts to frontline services, all services not just drug specific ones, will have a lot to do with it, but again why so much higher here? I can’t find the More Or Less (R4) programme that dealt with the figures, @StarryEyeSurprise, but I do remember they agreed that the numbers are that high even though Scotland has a different reporting system with drug deaths. Angela Constance was appointed drugs minister in December, she has a Social Work background and May ‘get’ the issues better than her predecessor, so steps are being made at least. Still baffles me.

I’ll shut up now!

What "Scottish vaccine"? DH works vaccinating for the NHS and they are doing very few at the moment. Shifts have been cut right back and they are currently doing 2nd dose NHS workers on Pfizer.

There are still some places doing Oxford vaccine but only to complete 50+ on first dose and there are many fewer centres open.

They are expecting things to ramp up again but not for a couple of weeks.

There’s a vaccine being actually produced in Scotland- in Livingston I think?

Yes there is a Dundee effect. Darren McGarvey did a series of programmes for the BBC Scotland channel about 18 months ago on this very subject. This is distinct from his series on Class which has just aired and is also a thought provoking watch.

He obviously has his own editorial stance but both series are a very good starting point for an accessible way to understand the issues better.