The Fall Out Continues - thread 6

[TheShadowyFeminist]

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@ResilienceWanker

Totally In The Thick Of It!

Someone on twitter has pointed out that constituency MSPs could potentially be elected under the SNP, but then defect to ALBA, which could mess things up a bit. I know the SNP are going with the "its a party for sex pests, racists and perjurers" line (as if the SNP is all sweetness and light...) but I would love to be a fly on the wall in their HQ at the moment, going mad trying to identify potential defectors among the ranks of their own candidates.

That would be mental! Can you imagine the melt downs that would follow?

I'd need a months supply of 🍿 to cope!

@fandabbydoozy

I didn't realise leaders debates were going ahead. I assume this is virtual? Where and when can we see the debates?

First is tomorrow I think? BBC - probably BBC Scotland channel. I'll need to check.

This is an archived article from the Herald - it's quite accurate I think.

Link to archived article

This bit I agree with completely.

"His admitted inappropriate conduct in public office while being acquitted of any and all criminality will provide endless attack opportunities. These might carry more integrity if they didn’t come from an organisation which has consistently ignored complaints from female members who have been threatened with sexual violence by known – and protected – party activists."

@TheShadowyFeminist

This is an archived article from the Herald - it's quite accurate I think.

Link to archived article

This bit I agree with completely.

"His admitted inappropriate conduct in public office while being acquitted of any and all criminality will provide endless attack opportunities. These might carry more integrity if they didn’t come from an organisation which has consistently ignored complaints from female members who have been threatened with sexual violence by known – and protected – party activists."

Yes, agreed.

The replies to this tweet by Sarah Ditum raise some of the same (and related) issues:

twitter.com/sarahditum/status/1376111891257438211

It’s all bonkers at the moment in Scottish politics

I can’t keep up

Worse than line of duty 😂

@ResilienceWanker

Totally In The Thick Of It!

Someone on twitter has pointed out that constituency MSPs could potentially be elected under the SNP, but then defect to ALBA, which could mess things up a bit. I know the SNP are going with the "its a party for sex pests, racists and perjurers" line (as if the SNP is all sweetness and light...) but I would love to be a fly on the wall in their HQ at the moment, going mad trying to identify potential defectors among the ranks of their own candidates.

I thought of this as a possibility for constituency MSPs particularly.

Are the deadlines for standing on a list and as a constituency MSP the same, does anyone know? If they are is there a potential for someone to really screw up SNP by getting added to the Alba list when they're already a constituency nominee and just not announcing until it's too late? I'm not sure if there is a rule which prevents you being a constituency candidate for one party but a list for another. And even if there is, would an unannounced til 1st April switcheroo leave SNP unable to field a candidate?

I think constituency people would have to wait till elected before switching, no? That would really piss lots of people off...

I think the Neale Hanvey situation possibly gives an idea how that might be handled.

The SNP suspended him & withdrew support & funding. But they couldn't remove SNP from the ballot paper as it was too late when the issue kicked off.

I don't know that anyone would jump after the deposits/names have been registered for each constituency/list but before the election as they'd leave themselves wide open to being left high & dry. Might not be ethical but I think anyone on constituency ballots will sit tight and make a move after the election is over. They'd get absolute pelters for it! But I think they'd either need to give up their constituency seat now, and have no chance of getting a seat, or make a decision much later.

It does highlight the difficult position the SNP are now in, mainly because they stuck with Sturgeon who is making all the bad decisions that are pushing people to leave.

That 'off the cuff' video that she posted over a handful of misogynist student tantrums, given all the women who have now left (including a Glasgow councillor today who was heavily involved in the equal pay case for women), really does look so much worse in hindsight than it did at the time (and it was awful then too).

Her judgement is seriously off & i find her take on this situation seriously bizarre.

I think it's likely they'll stay put - I was just pondering as I'd remembered a previous election (might have been Hanvey) where someone was kicked out of their party but they couldn't get them off the ballot paper or field another candidate so they were stuffed.

This is the latest from Wings - effectively a party political broadcast for Alba - but the information disclosed by Irshad Ahmed about the SNP's refusal to allow him to see the list election results is I think the most interesting part of this.

Ahmed was on the same list as Graeme Campbell, SNP MP Anne McLaughlin's partner & current Glasgow councillor with a poor attendance record. We'd (I think) previously discussed the leaked 1st round STV votes where Campbell was able to leapfrog the list off the back of a tiny % of the vote based on the BAME criteria imposed & Ahmed was the other BAME candidate on the list. Campbell was able to vote for the mechanism that he personally benefited from to be able to get No.1 spot on the Lothains List.

So it's interesting (to me at least) that Ahmed has now followed suit & jumped ship to Alba.

Link to Wings piece

Thanks for sharing the Herald article @shadowy. It's scorching and spot on in my view re the elitist, authoritarianism of the current SNP and how Sturgeon only has herself to blame for the inevitable split.

@sessell

Thanks for sharing the Herald article *@shadowy*. It's scorching and spot on in my view re the elitist, authoritarianism of the current SNP and how Sturgeon only has herself to blame for the inevitable split.

A lot of the twotter shares I've seen of the piece are taking the line 'blame a woman for a man's actions' about it - it's so frustrating, particularly as if they actually read it they'd see that the blame it attaches to Sturgeon is very definitely for her own actions. But it's such an easy answer to a complex situation, and I think a lot of people still really don't want to look closely enough to see what's right there in front of them.

I'm not sure if there is a rule which prevents you being a constituency candidate for one party but a list for another. And even if there is, would an unannounced til 1st April switcheroo leave SNP unable to field a candidate?

I don't know if there is an electoral rule, but there will almost certainly be party rules! Wasn't there a purge of SNP people who were advocating snp1, green 2 last time? Or am I confusing it with labour members campaigning for the greens locally? And I'm not sure it's even possible to actually switch parties mid campaign (only to leave one party and stand as an independent instead, as per NH). The SNP would have no choice but to withdraw support in that case, though alba could take over your campaign I suppose... and there could be enough novelty value, alongside there being no alternative indy constituency candidate, for it to work. Who knows? Would give your opponents an absolute gift in terms of casting doubt on your honesty and integrity as a candidate, though!

Jumping ship immediately after election using the "machinery" of the SNP is pretty dodgy too, though. But at least you would definitely have your seat then! Would scupper your chances of any cabinet positions in a coalition gov for a while I'd have thought, though.

Jumping ship immediately after election using the "machinery" of the SNP is pretty dodgy too, though. But at least you would definitely have your seat then! Would scupper your chances of any cabinet positions in a coalition gov for a while I'd have thought, though.

I agree with this. Tbh, I don't think anyone would do that, it would just bring too much heat & vitriol. But what I think might be possible is where there's a split vote or a whipped vote that someone in the SNP strongly objects to, there's the opportunity to 'cross the floor' and make a huge dramatic gesture out of strong policy disagreement.

That might have ramifications on Sturgeon who seems to commanded fierce loyalty from most SNP MPSs. The few who were willing to rebel on the Forensic ME bill, forcing the u-turn, might be small in number but they're there. And when it comes to GRA, if sturgeon continues to ignore the voices pointing out all the ways this harms women & girls (especially given their preference to conflate sex with gender/gender ID) then those strongly opposed have an option now. They didn't before.

But that's just guesswork on my part. Who knows 🤷🏻‍♀️

Yes, I think you're right, Shadowy - staying put for now gives them a bit of leverage which they haven't had for a very long time.

Any guesses on who this evening's rumoured 'big hitter' might turn out to be?

I've heard maybe Fergus Ewing which is credible.

Less credible I think was Kate Forbes 😂

Fergus Ewing does sound possible but won't help them with their reactionary old bloke image.

C'mon the (sensible) women! I am holding out a vain hope for Phillipa Whitford.

Jumping ship immediately after election using the "machinery" of the SNP is pretty dodgy too, though. But at least you would definitely have your seat then! Would scupper your chances of any cabinet positions in a coalition gov for a while I'd have thought, though.

Not sure I agree tbh. Alba have stated clearly the aim is to augment not detract from the SNP seat share. However the SNP have turned their back on this joint strategy. In pursuit of the greater Indy good Alba are giving the SNP a free run in all the constituencies. it seems perfectly legitimate for candidates to wait and see. If the SNP fail to deliver a majority on their own merits then they have a choice. Work collaboratively with a fellow Indy supporting Party or face defections.

Given the current tone from the SNP and NS it is highly likely that a Deal would necessitate a Leadership regime change. There will be around 15 new SNP MSP faces regardless and I assume they will have ambitions of their own. There will also be 15 or so fewer old enforcers of the current hierarchy. A split seems inevitable if Alba gains any traction at all. This would extend to WM and Councils and Party Admin.

Angus McNeil?

@WouldBeGood

Angus McNeil?

It would be stretching things pretty far to describe Angus as a 'big hitter'!!

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying it's hugely likely - but the timing of Alba being announced and people shifting parties in the run up does leave scope for SNP to be in a sticky situation IMO. Which could be kind of entertaining to watch.

I do think jumping parties post election is seriously dodgy but we've already got two defected MPs so...

Wouldn’t be surprised if Angus McNeill did jump, though.
I know she’s meant to be standing down, but I wonder about Aileen Campbell, she’s young to jack in politics for good.

The SNP would love Angus McNeil to jump ship. For this reason I very much doubt he will. Similarly Joanna Cherry. All bets are off post election though.

Blackford should be careful with conducting an internal witch hunt while expecting to maintain Party discipline. Fair amount of push back over his comments on Kenny.

I think it will be really hard for the MSPs to move over, unless they are list MSPs who have been bumped down the list by the 'Equalities' operation and so are unlikely to get in. But there were only four of those last time - Joan McAlpine will be trying to win her constituency, Maree Todd is a loyalist as far as I know, Emma Harper might be a wee bit terfy but is top of her list, don't know anything about Paul Wheelhouse really.

Joan, Paul and Emma are all also constituency candidates standing against sitting Conservatives. Would be surprised if any of them win the constituency. Hard to call how the Labour and Conservative vote will move and whether Ayr will go back to SNP or MidLothian stay SNP. Any Alba 2nd vote switch certainly wouldn't help and any proper Lefty non-Nationalists have George Galloway as an alternative to Labour on the List (may have appeal in Joan Freeman's old constituency at least).

Maree is standing in Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency as well as on the List. She may not win as it went LibDem in the 2019 GE but if not that would give more List potential. However this is where Alba could start to hurt if people opt for them in the List rather than 2 votes SNP. Andy Wightman may also be a factor if he does more than take votes from the Greens.