Here come those tiers again.

[Cismyfatarse]

New Fred.

Surely Glasgow is high due to the amount of people it has?

@icanboogieboogiewoogie

In a completely unreasonable bout of selfishness I don't want to go back to tiers because I'm in Glasgow and at least at the moment everyone is the same. Once we go back into tiers you lot all get your (albeit limited) freedom and we're left, closed down, wondering why the feck the numbers are still so high here.

I'm the same. I feel like Glasgow has been in a stricter lockdown than anywhere else in the uk?

Nope, Stirlingshire was right there not partying alongside you, Glasgow. We were swept up in the first hardcore level that related to health authority, then no explanation given for the next stage where we didn’t drop out of dirty T4. Temporary ‘but don’t share your tatties’ drop for about half an hour at Christmas like everyone else and then back into full lockdown. Last time I remember anything reasonable being allowed was October and even then the dress code was prohibition.

I think Lester or somewhere has been similar to Glasgow but yes I think Glasgow has been treated harshly.

I think hospitality in Glasgow has effectively been closed since September, maybe it was open for 2 weeks in December. 5 months of next to no trade and no signs of an end.

I think they should specifically target Glasgow whilst we are in lock down to try and get the numbers low. There is other factors at play not just number of people it's not fair for Glasgow to be in a state of lock down.

Flip side I'm also in Aberdeenshire and we are low with continuing dropping so is Aberdeen City which has some very poor areas and don't want to be held by Glasgows numbers (sorry Glasgow!)

If you check out Traveling Tabby, Glasgow and Lanarkshire numbers remain high - even related to population- compared to the other areas.

I feel there must be some reason for this and we should have enough data to try to understand why and address the root cause. Suspect it's mostly down to hospital transmission which the general public can do absolutely nothing to influence.

Edinburgh also has pretty low numbers now, but no escape on the horizon coz Central Belt.

To be honest I've given up hope on most things I'd just like DS 14 to be able to see his pals outside legitimately and get some face to face education.

I do think it's probably something to do with hospital transmission. The Southern General is a pretty huge hospital so the numbers from hospital transmission will be really high. It's always pissed me off that we were given no real focus on Glasgow in briefings (Aberdeen pubs; Coupar Angus (?) food plant; some where in argyle was linked to a bowling club) but either they don't know, or they don't want us to know what's going on here which would tie to the hospital.

I feel there must be some reason for this and we should have enough data to try to understand why and address the root cause. Suspect it's mostly down to hospital transmission which the general public can do absolutely nothing to influence

Yip SG must know where these transmissions are happening. As you say I don't think it is something that individuals can influence. But they aren't going to come out and admit it's hospitals or care homes, ie places under their influence.

There can't still be a lot of care home transmission can there, most care home residents must be post 3 weeks vaccinated. Hospitals seem likely as community transmission can't really be possible either with nothing open and nowhere to go! It's frustrating that we don't get to hear how the cases are spreading

Was there not something about the vaccine not stopping people getting it completely, more it stops people getting really ill with covid?
Hence it could still be circulating in care homes.

They're reporting that the vaccine also drastically cuts transmission rates too.

Just reading about UK gov possible route map...schools open 8th March, non essential retail end of March and hospitality by Easter weekend...assuming r doesn't go back up. I'd take that right now!
Looks like some advisers are recommending another couple of months of lockdown though.

fluffyugg chance would be a fine thing of that happening here. We'll be grudgingly allowed to go indoors to buy our coffee and meet more than one other person outdoors whilst England is having a lovely summer holidaying and visiting pubs and restaurants.

Also at some point when they've vaccinated the older/more vulnerable they're going to need to move away from the r rate and case numbers as a measure and start measuring by hospitalisations. If as Matt Hancock said yesterday that we'll be living with it normally like flu by the end of the year then that's the only way forward.

Hmm, deaths are still high in England (that's where the route map relates to in reality).
Scotland does have the lowest cases etc and I think it should be a tier system after we see the effect of infants going back - the middle of March.

I think in reality England might phase back pupils from 8th March also and see the effect of that. Hopefully if our p1-3 plan does go ahead on the 22nd we can start thinking about getting the next lot in a few weeks later.

Yeah, I think we will be able to go back a couple of weeks earlier as planned as cases are much lower than the rest of the UK. 🤞🤞🤞

Realistically new cases are going to have to get a lot lower in Scotland before much happens, regardless of what's being discussed for England.
If you look at the Traveling Tabby graph for new infections we're still higher than we ever were during the first lockdown. It's just so hard to understand why we still have these high levels of infections and why it's so localised to a couple of main areas and has been persistently so for weeks if not months.
Maybe we should be tweaking vaccination priorities to get more people done in the Glasgow/Lanarkshire area as soon as possible, see if that helps.

I would assume there will be quite a lot of unlocking in the weeks close to the election as that fits in with the time frame it would be possible if you're being very cautious and of course doesn't hurt with the voting optics .

Hospital and ICU numbers are still high. They'll want those to came down a bit before lifting restrictions.

SG are perfectly well aware of where the infections are being transmitted. They're not telling us as they can't " fix" it easily by closing something else down.

So that only points to things still open - healthcare, workplaces like factories, or as result of deprivation which has been discussed at length on here.

I don't believe people in the whole of west central Scotland are behaving differently to elsewhere in the country

@rookiemere

Realistically new cases are going to have to get a lot lower in Scotland before much happens, regardless of what's being discussed for England. If you look at the Traveling Tabby graph for new infections we're still higher than we ever were during the first lockdown. It's just so hard to understand why we still have these high levels of infections and why it's so localised to a couple of main areas and has been persistently so for weeks if not months. Maybe we should be tweaking vaccination priorities to get more people done in the Glasgow/Lanarkshire area as soon as possible, see if that helps.

You can’t compare new infections to the first lockdown though, as they weren’t testing as much. Numbers in hospital or cases is a better comparison and on those we are now slightly better than the first peak.

*deaths! Not cases.

SG are perfectly well aware of where the infections are being transmitted. They're not telling us as they can't " fix" it easily by closing something else down.

That's exactly what I'm thinking.
I don't really believe anymore that Glasgow is behaving that much differently to elsewhere. At one point I thought maybe but not now schools have been closed for weeks.

Does Glasgow have more hospitals than other areas? I've seen on here that hospitals are great at spreading the virus, for various reasons.