Here come those tiers again.

[Cismyfatarse]

New Fred.

Matt Hancock yesterday was saying we will be living alongside it like flu with things hopefully normal by year end.
That didn't sound like an elimination strategy. Thank god.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-56050119

I don't think Matt Hancock has the same view as our gov necessarily. He knows he has to appease his party who are more libertarian, the SNP don't really need to do that.

How on earth is Scotland going to pursue a different strategy from within a common travel area?

UK Gov are better than the devolved governments at playing the game. They try to get folk on side a bit more and they like to play the good guy before going 'ah actually I know wee said that but we've had to change our course now due to new info'. The devolved governments tend to operate with the worst case scenario always.

Depend what happens with the variants but it wouldn't be unusual for Hancock to be forced to backtrack.

Hopefully not but I don't think it can be ruled out.

I don't know, not sure it's possible, that's really the biggest problem. If it was easily possible we'd have shut the border last March (presumably) and had a much better outcome.

They're talking about this right now on BBC1.

They know its becoming a seasonal virus, very low rates in summer. Which is what they'll rely on to protect adults until they are all vaccinated.
They are pushing all adults to be vaccinated by September. I'd bet the reason behind that is get everyone done before the students return and before winter.

They know that people can't and won't live like this indefinitely. As has been pointed out summer is protest season.

I actually tend to agree with Matt Hancock in that the genie is out of the bottle and I don't think we can put it back in. There will always be new variants as its perfectly natural for viruses to mutate, and so I suspect what we need to do is tweak the vaccines to account for the worrisome ones as we do the flu vaccine each year. Ultimately we can't stop every death from COVID and certainly not without causing much more damage to society in general.

It does seem like some Scottish government advisors are still keen on elimination and to hell with the consequences as far as I can tell. Devi seems happy to shut borders forever, but then she strikes me as someone acting with a very narrow focus who doesn't necessarily appreciate the wider harms of lockdown.

What I found weird is that on Off The Ball yesterday they were talking about stopping the league. Why now?! It's all a bit late in the day isn't it?

Closing the borders is easier said than done. 100s of trucks crossing into the UK daily. Any one of those drivers could be incubating the virus.

I'm not really sure the evidence does suggest it's a seasonal virus. The low rates in the summer were put down to post lockdown and most socialising occurring outdoors. Schools shut etc. It prefers the cold but it's not a seasonal virus the way colds and flus are.

I think that Devi is very sensitive to the harms of lockdown but what she also recognises are the harms caused by an out of control virus and in her professional opinion the consequences of that are way worse.

It's also been rife in plenty of hot countries so not sure seasonality is a factor.

Basically the four harms can only be tackled if you tackle COVID first. You can't focus on a successful economy that's always facing isolations and shutdowns. You can't tackle other health issues if the NHS is always close to overwhelm if the virus runs free.
You can't address societal inequalities if the country's welfare infrastructures and resources are underfunded and given no resources due to constantly fighting Covid.

She knows that so in that sense she very much is focused on the other harms.

@kurtrussellsbeard I was wondering that too, it felt like it was seasonal last Summer but like you say that was probably off the back of the lockdown and schools being shut.

@jabbathebutt I'm sure the plan is to get all over 18s vaccinated by Autumn. I think that is largely driven by fears about moving student communities but of course in Scotland many students are under 18 so a slightly different challenge.

I hear what you're saying about the devolved governments @kurtrussellsbeard . I really wish the SG could dangle a carrot occasionally, the edict not to book holidays even in Scotland in the summer annoyed and upset me, because if we can't do that by then then really we are just existing rather than living for the long term.

My opinion of Mark Drakesford did shoot up from an admittedly low level about how he handled the Wales being first question saying it was a fight against the virus, not the other countries in the UK. I do wonder what NS might have said if we were in that position.

Wales have all primary pupils going back on the 22nd Feb I see. Hopefully on Tuesday we will get some indication of when all pupils will go back, it's the uncertainty and lack of hope of anything that's hard for many just now.

It's funny how people are different, I prefer the clarity even if it is a bit less hopeful, I'd be driven mad by all the chopping and changing in England.

Some clarity would be good, whether it's hopeful or not, yes!

Me too. Every time Boris et al open their mouths I just think what a crock - you'll be backtracking in a day or two. People love it though seems to make them appear more caring or something (that's a laugh). It's quite manipulative. Impressive in a way. If they spent half the energy actually doing a good job as they spend on trying to appear as if they're doing a good job they genuinely would be world beating.

It sometimes feels to me like we have a lack of hope and a lack of clarity. We get 'two more weeks' from now until eternity, no idea of when it will end coupled with a complete lack of transparency over what their criteria even are, but also told not to even bother planning a summer holiday despite all the vulnerable likely having their jags. A little bit of positivity wouldn't go amiss - a lot of us are in the pits of absolute despair.

In the meantime, I'm having to watch the news like a hawk to see if whatever the latest that Sturgeon comes away with about borders will make it even harder for DH to do his job - he's already just been comprehensively shafted with their quaratine rules crap.

Yeah that's true @Y0uCann0tBeSer10us it's just lack of clarity in the opposite way isn't it!

It is so interesting how different people react to the different approaches and all from our own unique world view lens.

DH took out an online subscription to the Daily Telegraph to get some cheap wine, and he has never been the same since. Keeps saying what a good job Boris is doing. I do think BG pulled a blinder with the vaccines as it plays right into their strengths of taking a punt and throwing money at something and hoping for the best. But other than that - if ever there were a man or government less suited for current crisis, they'd be hard to find. Apart from Matt Hancock none of them seem to give a hoot about anything but themselves.

There's been very little in the way of clarity for quarantine and the journalists just are not asking. There is going to be an exemption list, but no one seems able (or willing) to give any idea who's going to be on it. There are offshore workers who do 2 /3 weeks on, 2 / 3 weeks off. Will they have to quarantine in a hotel for half of their leave and barely see family before they go back? Will they be exempt because of the 'bubble' set up in their work and regular testing? There seems to be a public belief that we're talking about folk jetting off to Lanzarote for a weeks holiday, but that is a tiny number of travellers.