I get locked down. Tiers go up again.

[Cismyfatarse]

New Fred.

Well yeah that is what it would mean - but the vast majority of the world would be vaccinated against the main strain(s) or travel to/from those nations would be predicated on vaccination. That's still miles better than not pursuing a strategy because it can't be 100% effective.

There are organisations that vaccinate children in the most rural and poor nations; it's in reach to use those existing channels to vaccinate people in most places. We have to have the will to do it though, and to accept some form of restrictions on travel while it happens.

I wonder that the story over summer of Spanish variant coming to predominate (and then the latest story of Kent variant) makes it seem that new "foreign" introductions are the big issue. Could it not be that had the selected for variants never arrived all the subsequent infections would have still occurred but with the genetics of the older variants? So Spanish variant merely outcompeted it didn't change end number of infections?

Hence the idea that had we had no travel to Spain we would have had fewer cases is wrong as the virus was endemic here. The people not now going to Spain would have met up with friends, gone to the supermarket and carried on spreading earlier variants instead. Another mutation occurs but is now known as the Milngavie variant.
So you are back to saying everyone stay home forever.

Please Ask the prof! 😄

Pressed send too soon - all nations will have to catch up at some point, probably through NGOs, or they will have to exist as sealed bubbles forever, and no population will accept that forever. So if the majority of the world closes borders, vaccinates, then can get on with much of our lives, the trailing nations will want/need to follow suit.

@LetItGoGo the vast majority of new cases came from England in the summer.

Gotta go, back on. Prof is away, we're on to a load of policy experts and stuff about the actual actions they think would or would not work.

It's properly fascinating!

@Bytheloch

The 100,000 dead, England sadly having the highest death rate in the world is ONLY down to the catastrophic errors made by the government (which affect Scotland as we have an open border).

The U.K. not England alone.
Wales, Scotland and N.I. Figures are 100k.
FFS own it.
Sick of this BS moaning as though Scotland hasn’t had appalling figures for its population.
Furlough- fecking furlough, even though it’s utterly shit for anyone who’s currently furloughed, be thankful it’s available funded from the rest of the taxpayers in the U.K..
Vaccines - I’m beyond thankful we have those available to us as one country.

Apologies, yes 100,000 poor souls in the UK but England has the highest death rate in the world. We are part of the UK and it has not helped us during the pandemic. The furlough money is not financed from "the rest of the taxpayers'. The UK Government has borrowed the money for it ( the SG don't have borrowing powers). Yes, it's great we've got a vaccine but Israel have too. They're not in the UK or the EU and the vaccines don't stop transmission so we're a long way off returning to normal still. You are grateful we are under the UK Government and that's great. My feelings are different and that's allowed too? Plus it's a lovely sunny Sunday 🌞!

Saturday! Jeez

What are you watching IncludeWomen?

@IncludeWomenInTheSequel my fellow Hamilton fan - is that survey you're doing with Devi just a general discussion thingie or is it something that will actually influence government approach to the virus? I personally prefer the tier approach of the lot (although its still shit) We can't follow NZ because we aren't as isolated as they are.

I thought the J&J vaccine was 65% effective or something but someone up thread is saying 100%?

Include that's the SG narrative.

I’m for mitigation.

Elimination is just wholly unrealistic.

@Iwillneverbesatisfied it's a Citizen's Panel run by the Parliament, I applied to be on it and was just chosen at random, there's 20 of us on it for four Saturdays in a row. We finalise a report and recommendations next week and give them to the Covid-19 Parliamentary Committee, who will consider them in their thinking and filter them into the recommendation they in turn give to the government.

Mitigation is where we'll end up eventually, it'll be another virus in circulation.

@StarryEyeSurprise Of course we can all agree to disagree and I miss the political heated discussions of my youth, in that respect.

I’m grateful for the sunshine 🌞 today too, I’ll take it whether it’s Saturday or Sunday 🤪

iwillnever 65% is for not getting infected at all. 85% is for serious but sub hospitalisation. 100% is in relation to hospitalisation and death. (as I understand it and I think this is press release rather than peer reviewed data)

LetitGoGo very well explained re the Milngavie variant.

We can't even prevent Barra infecting the rest of the Western Isles so I do think throwing shade across the Border is stretching.

[quote Bytheloch]@StarryEyeSurprise Of course we can all agree to disagree and I miss the political heated discussions of my youth, in that respect.

I’m grateful for the sunshine 🌞 today too, I’ll take it whether it’s Saturday or Sunday 🤪[/quote]
😀

I saw that B and M have started stocking their summer goods. On the one hand, I can't believe we're still in lockdown but also so looking forward to the warmth!

Way back last year when this all kicked off Elimination was SG tactic, that went well.
Has to be mitigation together with suppression, once we’re vaccinated from top group down to say 65’s it’ll start to show in the stats.
Please god we get some momentum going on the jags.

Highlights for my day is, changed our bed and it’s out in the sunshine blowing away. Got a new Vileda mop set quick and easy to mop miss Darcys paw prints in the utility. Used a steam thingie but can’t be bothered dragging it out for a small area.
Winning at life as Rylan says 😀
Mind, only shop in ones 🤣

Getting in early with a new thread title suggestion in honour of J&J - "no more tiers formula".

@Coquohvan

Way back last year when this all kicked off Elimination was SG tactic, that went well. Has to be mitigation together with suppression, once we’re vaccinated from top group down to say 65’s it’ll start to show in the stats. Please god we get some momentum going on the jags.

Highlights for my day is, changed our bed and it’s out in the sunshine blowing away. Got a new Vileda mop set quick and easy to mop miss Darcys paw prints in the utility. Used a steam thingie but can’t be bothered dragging it out for a small area.
Winning at life as Rylan says 😀
Mind, only shop in ones 🤣

if we start using the requirement for covid in ICU and death stats then sure we will see a difference after vaccination, if we continue to count anyone with a positive test as use those stats to set strategy then I can't see as much impact as the people being out and about most are the ones likely to be unvaccinated.

I've had a fairly productive day, made a nice pot of soup, collected my shopping, had a nice bowl of lentil, carrot and ham with fresh crusty bread, did some laundry/stripped DS1s bed (but can't get it out as it's showery rain). Got chicken thighs defrosting and going to make the hairy bikers spanish chicken tray bake for dinner.

There is loads more i could be doing but can't be bothered today.

Had my first run-in with a covidiot! Me! Who's usually really relaxed about the whole thing!

In Asda, older guy, with a younger woman and three pre-school children. Woman only one out of them wearing a mask, although to be fair the wee ones don't have to. Both adults browsing the reduced section. So I stand back and wait. Not in a hurry. Older man looks round and tells me to "just push in hen, plenty of room for all of us" My response was "you're OK, we're supposed to be socially distancing, I'm happy to wait".

He then said "Snotty bitch, you think i'd be in Asda if I had Covid"?

Lovely. Now I'm all for a bit of non-dangerous rule breaking, but getting within inches of someone in Asda? You're all right thanks.

You can’t teach stupid @Raspberry you did the wright thing. Yes the positives means it’s still with us. Though the drop in cases looks to be that it is dropping steeper than the autumn spike. Can only hope it keeps going that way. Dinner sounds lovely enjoy.

raspberry that's a nice treat for a Saturday, being insulted in a supermarket!

@rasperrycoulis - the correct response would be "I'd rather be snotty and safe than dim and dead"
Sympathies tho - not a pleasant experience. Hope you complained to store management

I like that thread name. I also suggest "tiers can only get better" - keeping with the song theme.

Interesting pivot from Zero Devi today on twitter:

"I’m increasingly convinced by data from countries across the world that we are underestimating the harms of keeping young kids out of school & overplaying their role in transmission. Children should be in school."

She links to latest evidence from Norway:

"Study in Norway tested all contacts of 5 to 13 year olds with covid. They conclude "transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from children under 14 years of age was minimal in primary schools in Oslo and Viken, the 2 counties with the highest COVID-19 incidence.""

Oooh my hopes are up...! Just from talking to friends across 4 schools all reporting bored, frustrated increasingly hard to engage with the learning in early primary age kids