Educated guesses when schools will reopen

[frasersmummy]

Just that really

What do you think might be a realistic re-opening date.
Am I being optimistic thinking after the February break
I know no one has a crystal ball just looking for people's thoughts

And they say that seniors would be the first back Tok when they've said before that they are the most likely to spread it. Doesn't add up

@frasersmummy

why do parents need 2 weeks notice of schools re-opening?? surely it would make far more sense to say we will reopen when the case numbers are x or the r number is below 1 or whatever

or is that treating us all like adults instead of naughty kids .

That's in England. Education is devolved in Scotland. As far as I know, swinney mentioned nothing about 2 weeks. The English system is nothing to do with Scotland. For those moaning about school return - Well at least your not ill with covid or seen a family member die or dead yourself. Your child is off school. Yeah it's hard but in the scheme of things children recover. They absolutely did from the last March lockdown. It's a pandemic. No-one likes it. Noone has a crystal ball and can tell what will happen. How can it be planned for?

John Swinney said at the briefing today that they'd hope to give 2 weeks notice of schools reopening once they decide which cohorts are returning first.

Think it’s a bit unfair to come on here and tell us to stop moaning. It’s a thread about schools being shut. We are looking for a real plan to get kids back to school. Not to be told to shut up and put up with it and not question why, when and how. Yeah kids recover. But with no clear return date, after a year and a half of no school (potentially) they won’t recover. So we need them to re-open as soon as it’s possible to do so, not “another two weeks just in case” for the foreseeable.

No-one likes it. Noone has a crystal ball and can tell what will happen. How can it be planned for?

They could set out what criteria they need for school return to happen, and then we could all have a sensible discussion about that like grownups? I’m not even saying they need to come up with criteria I’ll like! Just TELL us what you’re basing your decisions here on so we know whether we’re planning for weeks or months, because it’s very very hard to plan for a rolling “just 2 weeks more”.

I don’t think it’s fair to say “well at least you don’t have covid!” I did have probably-covid back last spring, and it wasn’t fun at all, but I would have that five times over rather than do the work-homeschool-toddler juggle if I had a choice.

Ooo that's an interesting hypothetical Golden - schools open tomorrow but you're given a 'normal' (ie not a massive load that's bound to overwhelm the immune system) dose of live COVID virus.

I think I'd take my chances!

@fluffyugg

And they say that seniors would be the first back Tok when they've said before that they are the most likely to spread it. Doesn't add up

There is a reason for that - qualifications. If the seniors don't get back in at all it makes assessments very tricky indeed. So yes they would still be likely to spread and the greatest risk for teachers. I suppose by keeping the others home the overall spread remains smaller and fingers crossed for the students and teachers no catching/isolating until assessments are out of the way.

“just 2 weeks more”

That's what bugs me.

In December I calculated March after Easter for schools going back.

Virus rates were rising, hints about spready version of the virus, flu season (hospitals are normally stretched).
Vaccine was always going to be the exit strategy. Mid Feb for top 4 priority groups to have vaccine, 3 weeks for it to take affect, early March and lag for the pressure to drop on NHS. Mid - End March.

If I could work it out surely to goodness some data analysist with more knowledge than me could give a reasonably accurate forecast? Just be honest about what they are expecting.

The problem with just sending seniors back, presumably to allow for distancing, is that it's going to lead to the same problem as the blended learning plans - who is going to teach the others? I'm teaching a full timetable, 5 days a week, plus prep and marking. How are they going to

Oops, was distracted by Joe Biden.

How are we going to teach eg, half Higher classes, while continuing to teach the others online?

Ah ok thank you x

I imagine sending the seniors back means that the teachers will be doing S1-S3 online, and able to deal with those classes in their normal timetable. And then having S4-S6 in their normal timetable.

I imagine part of the logic is so the schools are able to do assessments and get the evidence they need to grade the students. It has to be easier on teachers than the blended half the class in one week half the class the next.

It just means less kids crowding in the corridors and the canteens etc.

I took it to mean the seniors would be back full time, not part time blended learning.

I think they eventually concluded blended part time half class in half not just wouldn't work and quietly dropped the idea.

But, having 30 17 year olds in a room with a teacher without SD at a time of high infection is a disaster in the making.

That's why they need to wait for numbers in the community to drop before having any kids back.

NI have just extended their lockdown to 5th March. I can't see Scotland being much before then for any years.

They should open fully to all no later than when the elderly and ECV vaccinated.

@WouldBeGood

They should open fully to all no later than when the elderly and ECV vaccinated.

Which will be mid Feb (if SG get finger out) then 3 weeks for the vaccine to take affect, and a lag behind that for the pressure on the NHS to drop. So mid March at the earliest. But there are reports some elderly are getting told 31st March for them to get the vaccine.

They can't risk more spread of covid from anywhere while the NHS is bursting at the seams. They might also consider that they need some spare capacity within the NHS to deal with any other sort of major incident, anything from a bus crash to a meningitis outbreak.

I don’t understand how having S4-S6 in will work in reducing the spread of the virus. Sure there will be less pupils in school overall but the pupils will be in the same small classrooms. There won’t miraculously be more teachers so will be in the same teaching groups - which for subjects like English and Maths will be large classes. Teachers that are on the S1 to S3 timetable won’t suddenly be free to allow classes to split as they will be required for remote learning provision. The schools before lockdown were doing their best to separate year groups with staggered breaks and lunches. So other than mixing with the whole school at the beginning and end of the day what will be different? Or will it be remote learning spread across classrooms for S4 to S6 which gives the opportunity to sit assessments in a more controlled environment and that’s all ??

To be honest, I’d open them now 🤷🏻‍♀️

Sure there will be less pupils in school overall but the pupils will be in the same small classrooms.

I think the less pupils in the schools, and lower numbers in the community is all they are relying on.
They estimate schools raise the R rate by 0.2. So in theory only half the schools in it raised it by 0.1. I don't think they are going to fully open primaries either, younger / youngest pupils I think is how they worded it.

@WouldBeGood

They should open fully to all no later than when the elderly and ECV vaccinated.

No, that's a recipe for disaster. The first week back, we already had 3 children take covid into the school and 6 staff needing to self isolate.

But once the vulnerable are vaccinated it won’t matter: there will be no heed for isolation or bubbles or anything.

Need, not heed

@WouldBeGood well that's what they're saying...there will still be a need for restrictions even once the most vulnerable are vaccinated. Article on bbc news today about that.

I wonder what they mean by staggered...how long would the first group(s) be in for before the rest get back...2 weeks, a month, longer??

@WouldBeGood

But once the vulnerable are vaccinated it won’t matter: there will be no heed for isolation or bubbles or anything.

I'm not sure if you're being serious so I'll leave it at that.