Educated guesses when schools will reopen

[frasersmummy]

Just that really

What do you think might be a realistic re-opening date.
Am I being optimistic thinking after the February break
I know no one has a crystal ball just looking for people's thoughts

I don’t want to be a fear monger(er?) by saying august, I think I just have the fear and hoping someone will say it’s not likely! The vaccine and the fact there’s an election gives me a bit of hope. Also the fact we were told things would be significantly better by Easter makes me feel a bit more positive. So maybe feb for nurseries/ primary school and blended for secondary. It is still far too much school for kids to miss though, they were only really there for 3 months last year!

Re the election, they could postpone it if the schools are still off. So a return to school in August and then the election in Sept or Oct.

(I hope not!!! Feel so sorry for my sociable P1 boy who is already struggling with phonics)

Difficult to guess as it will depend on two things.

Progress with vaccines. If this goes well enough to reduce hospitalisations significantly sometime around start of march.

Reduction in infections / r rate etc

The longer this takes to fall the longer schools may need to be off. It is not clear yet that numbers will drop much or at all. The last time r was 0.6 in warmer conditions the SD was stricter. Now we have a strain that is more infectious, the peak numbers will be other than last time, employers staying open because the are "covid secure" even though we don't know enough about SD needed for the new strain, if masks still offer protection even the risk outdoors in colder weather. This might mean schools may end up closed all term and open again after Easter.

Most likely exam years ( for Centre assessments) and primaries may still return first

Limited reopening of primaries just before Easter

Secondaries after.

With a whole term offsite, plus all the interruptions to the autumn term for so many, plus potential further isolations required for a while yet to come, I really hope DofE is working out what might be needed to make the 2022 public exams fair (yes, 2021 awards are more urgent, but both are important)

if Johnson and his merry men cared about education Williamson wouldn’t still be in a job

Luckily they don't get a say up here since education is a devolved matter!

"However Nic said over 50s vaccinated by May, Boris said over 70s by mid February. So really they are running to the same time scales"

That assumes they will have enough vaccinator capacity to do all the second jabs that will fall due in 12 weeks at the same time as keeping up the rate of first jabs - essentially doubling capacity at the 12 week point. Is that going to work?

@ClangingChimesofDoom

if Johnson and his merry men cared about education Williamson wouldn’t still be in a job

Luckily they don't get a say up here since education is a devolved matter!

Yes, sorry, I didn’t actually spot that this was on Scotsnet!

The 12 week point is beginning of April. By then manufacturing should be ramped up. The teething issues trying to do mass vaccinations should be rolled out.

However getting the over 70s and vulnerable done by mid February should see the strain reducing on the NHS by mid March. Therefore allowing schools to get back.

@ClangingChimesofDoom

if Johnson and his merry men cared about education Williamson wouldn’t still be in a job

Luckily they don't get a say up here since education is a devolved matter!

Thank goodness! I belly laughed the other day when Boris was stating his support for Williamson by saying, " He is doing his job to the best of his ability." Er, so it's your fault then for putting him in the role.

August? Fuck me.

Easter's bad enough. The end of the Easter holidays here is 19th April - that's over 14 weeks away. Numbers fell sharply after lockdown last March - 14 weeks after that was the very end of June by which time new daily cases in Scotland were in single figures, and that was without a vaccine. We need to get schools back WAY before we get back down to this low.

Although I understand that secondary school pupils are perhaps a more risky prospect in terms of transmission, this is also the group who have had exams cancelled for the second year running and who can't be supported in the same way by their parents.

Numbers fell sharply after lockdown last March - 14 weeks after that was the very end of June by which time new daily cases in Scotland were in single figures, and that was without a vaccine. We need to get schools back WAY before we get back down to this low.

Agreed. The trouble is, going by last time, the point at which schools are closed is much worse, in terms of figures, than the point at which the powers that be are willing to reopen them. We are currently at around 2k cases a day, I bet we could revisit this thread when cases are at 1/10th that level and the schools will still be shut. It should be a quick, strict lockdown to squash cases a bit, say for 4 weeks, then back to normal. But it won't be if last year was anything to go by.

SG must be kicking themselves for not getting the schools back last June, when England was trying to get selected years back. Even a couple of weeks face to face teaching and getting kids set up with notes and stuff they should be doing for the exams would have made a difference.

They can't afford the ultra cautious approach this year.

Last year with hindsight we could have been back to school in June, maybe even after May half term. The numbers were low by the end of May and the hospital admissions had fallen also. But it was our first round with this so I guess they decided that the risk of opening for the latter part of summer term wasn't worth it.

@Lockdownbear

SG must be kicking themselves for not getting the schools back last June, when England was trying to get selected years back. Even a couple of weeks face to face teaching and getting kids set up with notes and stuff they should be doing for the exams would have made a difference.

They can't afford the ultra cautious approach this year.

Yes. There was NO reason the kids couldn't have been in classrooms in June. 4 weeks then, would have given both teachers and children a head-start. Although my S4 and S6 were given some of their "new" work in June, it's not the same.

They were far, far too cautious to reopen things when numbers fell hugely, quickly. Hospitality and tourist attractions weren't allowed to reopen until mid-July, when average daily deaths had been in single figures since the beginning of June. They kept gyms, swimming pools and indoor sport closed ALL summer, soft play never reopened.

Far too cautious. And now that they've decimated the economy and people's goodwill, they are reaping the results of that.

No one knows. I’d guess in England at least a week, maybe a couple before Sage says it is safe to open. Btw Easter Sunday is 4 April so quite early, though I know some schools don’t link to that.

Lots of areas have Spring break fixed as first 2 weeks in April. So doesn't matter when Easter is.

Sorry - didn’t see was in Scotsnet, maybe SG will be more sensible?

@Blowingagale

Sorry - didn’t see was in Scotsnet, maybe SG will be more sensible?

Hah! Fat chance.

This is so utterly depressing to read. I know that it won't be beginning of Feb, since the English schools are closed until at least half term.

I really hope it's not as late as Easter, because even if the home learning is better than last time, it's just not enough. My DC both primary and secondary really struggled.

Agree we were far too cautious over the summer, and this is partly why people are not engaging with this latest lockdown to the same extent as the first. Had we had a break of some sort, I think people would be more cooperative. As it is, people have had just about all they can take of it, and parents know they can't cope with home-schooling/working from home indefinitely because they know how bad it was before. No-one seriously believes the 'just three more weeks' bullshit anymore because they have a long track record of going back on their word.

Sadly, I think we might be gearing up for another attempt at the utterly unobtainable 'zero COVID', so think the schools will be shut for longer than England. The only saving grace is the election, as surely they must open up before then.

I agree they were too cautious last year. And think they will aim for unattainable zero covid. Which will put Scottish children at such a disadvantage. I hope I’m wrong and they really prioritise getting children back to school as soon as practically possible. Which shouldn’t be when numbers are in single figures or when the vaccinations are complete but somewhere where hospitals won’t be overwhelmed.

@LemonBreeland

This is so utterly depressing to read. I know that it won't be beginning of Feb, since the English schools are closed until at least half term.

I really hope it's not as late as Easter, because even if the home learning is better than last time, it's just not enough. My DC both primary and secondary really struggled.

In this area it couldn't be much worse. My youngest was P7 in the last lockdown and it was truly pitiful. PDF uploaded on each monday with "tasks" for the week - watch Newsround, do sumdog, go for a walk, read a book. See you next week!

Secondary wasn't much better, very very little until they switched to the new year timetable mid-May and we started getting stuff through. Still very little teacher support though and when my Adv H chemistry student struggled with something he couldn't get through to a teacher at all - we ended up on a Zoom call with a friend's daughter who is doing a Chemistry PhD and she talked him through it but that's hardly accessible to everyone.

I really hope that school have been planning for this eventuality and are ready for firing on all cylinders come Monday. I think however the reality is that some teachers/departments will go above and beyond and be amazing, others not so much. And others just can't - DD is doing Nat 5 drama. You can't do the performance element from home, posting on Glow.

I di think there is every likelihood that we will be closed longer than England, because that is what we seem to have to do every time. I just hope they do prioritise it too.

@RaspberryCoulis sounds similar. The primary work was minimal, we just worked on DDs reading and times tables and ignored the crap from school. DS1 was doing highers and had mostly finished his curriculum so it wasn't too bad. DS2 was S1 and the work was dreadful until the timetable change. Even after that he only had one teach do a live lesson twice. One teacher who did voice recorded lessons and the rest was just written down work. He was very difficult to motivate. If there aren't more live lessons this time I will be complaining to school. The teachers and pupils all have school ipdas, so there is no excuse.

We had no live lessons. No recorded lessons. No phone calls from school. No "real time" communication at all. The only communication any of the kids had was the ability to post on Glow/Teams, in the hope someone might reply.

I very much doubt this will be changing as East Dunbartonshire have made it crystal clear that they do not approve of teachers appearing on video in any format and the unions are vetoing it too.

However, I have seen that teachers are going into school this time round rather than being at home which might assuage some of the issues. Who knows.

However it pans out, it needs to be for the shortest time possible to relieve pressure on hospitals ONLY. Not until everyone's vaccinated, not until we get cases down to some random number dreamt up by Ms Sridhar.