Tracks of my tiers

[tinseltitsbumfannythelot]

New thread!

Morning all.

Yep, let’s just cracker on wtb the tier chat.

Thanks. @StatisticallyChallenged for the summary.

I’m glad there are not new measures- yet!

I’ll be very surprised if schools are back on 18th.

Why no second doses ASAP?

I thought St Nicola of the Sturgeon people would put a curfew over Hogmanay. She actually said nothing new at all. It was an update which provide no update, just reminders.

DS worried about return to Uni in England. He is due back on 11th and it is a return staggered over 2 weeks. Desperately hope he can go on time but that will be down to Lord Gavin, son of William.

she's speaking the now.

doing her usual hinting but no straight out telling us.

I’d though a Hogmanay curfew too

Thought

I'm not watching any of the updates and dd has just told us our area currently has the highest levels of Covid in the city.

I'm not doing good post losing my dad and Christmas being crap. Someone wake me up when things are a bit more normal please x

Sorry to hear that @Groovee, 2020 has Ben shit hasn't it

@tinseltitsbumfannythelot

Hopefully any briefing over the next few days will give an indication of the plan

You are assuming they have a plan.

They've been too busy bitching and posturing over Brexit.

@WouldBeGood your pun almost got overlooked there, so just stopping for a moment to acknowledge it. Cracker on

@Bytheloch here all week 😂

I live in hope @RaspberryCoulis

People need to hear something positive, even a sketchy outline would be a start.

I do like a pun. Sorry for the politics chat! I've decided to toast the Oxford vaccine scientists tonight and spread the NYE celebration over two nights as I'm unlikely to make it to midnight tomorrow!

I'm really hoping for snow tonight, loads of it preferably!

If it's 12 weeks between doses, does that mean we're looking at the summer before we're allowed to have anyone round? I hope not and we need a proper plan communicated...

@Groovee I'm sorry you've had a lousy time.

JF saying Oxford roll out starts on Monday. That gives a 2 week window till the 18th. Not sure how it will translate in terms of numbers but focus still very much on 50+ rather than total population in terms of opening up.

The regulator has reviewed the evidence and concluded that the efficacy is at least as good if not better with an 8-12 week gap between doses and that dose 1 provides a good baseline. Hence the move to roll out 1st doses ahead of making sure everyone has 2 doses.

Looks like a bit of smoke and mirrors though. Not much clarity on supply chain of the 2 vaccines and who will be prioritised for which.

The politics look like pure carrot and stick to keep us locked down long enough to get the vax out and claim victory. Something Boris and Nicola and even Keir seem united in. Scientists also fully bought into the politics given their single option approach to "science".

There is a lot of wiggle room in the stats. The Actuaries Response Group have been looking at figures for the so-called 2nd wave. So far Covid deaths for the UK are 25k but excess deaths are only 10k. Perhaps lockdown and scaling back healthcare has saved 15k non-Covid normal deaths or they happened early in Spring (?)

@Groovee

"The actuaries response group " 😄 I can guarantee that's a much less dynamic group than it sounds!

I was so excited this morning when I heard about the Oxford vaccine as I think I might be able to have it - can't have Pfizer as I have a severe penicillin allergy.
Managed to book a vaccine appointment for Tuesday thinking it would be Oxford (I work for NHS). Have just contacted our occupational health who said it's still Pfizer that they will be using for the foreseeable. Gutted as I'm feeling v anxious about it all.

That's frustrating @ladylunchalot, you'd think high priority groups who can't have one due to allergy would be top of the list for the other

It's a bummer, stress levels have been through the roof the last few weeks as so many colleagues have been diagnosed with covid and are still off. Dh is immunosuppressed and ds has autism and epilepsy and is so anxious about it all. Terrified I get it and bring it home with me.

that's english high schools staying closed for longer so Swinney will surely follow suit?

Gavin Williamson announcing that in England there will be some school closures but the vast majority of Primaries will remain open, except for the absolute highest infection areas (not all Tier 4 areas). Some secondaries might close in high infection areas as the evidence shows some increased transmission in this age group with the new variant.

I hope NS takes note and amends her more draconian policy of blanket closure of all schools and nurseries, as the English approach seems much more proportionate and actually in line with the science.

I know some surprisingly dynamic actuaries. Once you can rationalise risk and all that ....

I agree with you regarding Williamson's approach. He's screwed up on exams but he's got this right. I work in a primary school. We've had a fantastic term but it took a while for the children to settle back in and catch up. I'd hate to see them sitting at home again. I was perplexed to find an SNP MP questioning the S of S about education in England though. WTF has it got to do with her? Did she just fancy getting her face on TV?

So far Covid deaths for the UK are 25k but excess deaths are only 10k. Perhaps lockdown and scaling back healthcare has saved 15k non-Covid normal deaths or they happened early in Spring (?)

I had the merest glance at the figures and it looked like the deaths from respiratory infections (non covid) was down quite a bit, but that was the Scottish figures. So, a lot of the people that would naturally die from flu etc are now in the covid group instead? (would that still include those mentioned on the death certificate rather than actual tested?)

English High school return being phased from 11 Jan with exam years prioritised. Their FULL return date is still 18 Jan which is the earliest return date for Scotland and we've already scrapped exams.

For NRS figures yes does include death cert wax. I tend not to look at other CoD but just focus on what is reported as Covid impact relative to what is "excess" over total 5 year average.