Tiers Of A Clown

[Bytheloch]

Thread #3456

Released from our dirty T4, but still bamboozled. Let’s keep each other sane on here...

@TheMShip

www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/9th-December-2020-COG-UK-Report-Scotland-SARS-CoV-2-a-genomics-perspective-SAGE.pdf

This is fascinating. Key sentences from the abstract:

"Examining the available Scottish genome data from the second wave, and comparing it to the first wave, we find that while some UK lineages have persisted through the summer, the majority of lineages responsible for the second wave are new introductions from outside of Scotland and many from outside of the UK. This indicates that, while lockdown in Scotland is directly linked with the first wave case numbers being brought under control, travel-associated imports (mostly from Europe or other parts of the UK) following the easing of lockdown are responsible for seeding the current epidemic population. This demonstrates that the impact of stringent public health measures can be compromised if following this, movements from regions of high to low prevalence are not minimised."

Yes, I think this was one of the reports mentioned in the briefing today. It was used to justify all the restrictions on travel, within Scotland, within the UK, and abroad. Its obviously clever how they look at all the different strains and work out where they've come from. However, I'm not that surprised by the findings, or maybe I'm just not understanding something critical. Of course if no one is travelling, nor mixing with other people within their area, strains will die out. But other strains come in to replace them in circulation. Even if Scotland had managed to totally eliminate all strains in the summer, as soon as someone travels up from plague ridden England (obviously) or from Spain or wherever, it will reintroduce it - that's not in question, surely? And given that it is incredibly undesirable to shut ourselves off forever (or until we can prove no-one entering has or is incubating the virus) we can't stop that. I'm just not sure what we are supposed to "do" with that research, really?

emma - yes, I agree! The public health lady was on the BBC saying, ah, but Nottingham Christmas markets were closed because everyone rushed there, and it is still dangerous to crowd into shops. But shops haven't been closed in Edinburgh, so anyone who was wanting to could still crowd in there, and that ability hasn't led to a rise in infection over the past month, as numbers have continued to fall... And it hasn't had any Christmas markets. So I'm not sure I'm understanding the concern, really... It'll be John Swinney's "numbers going down but also going up" again you can tell why he's the education secretary

On birthdays, we've just missed them out this year There was a play in a park with 3 friends in the summer, but nothing more organised than that. I think strictly speaking you should have relatives separately either indoors or out, but if you are going to do that, I'd prefer it in a cafe with cake, rather than in a sleet-blasted Park.

Oh, and the Bru wasn't available in the format/ formula requested, so they're not bringing any . Maybe they KNEW I wasn't ordering it as a True Scot so wouldn't properly appreciate it.

It's fairly obvious that Scotland couldn't close borders indefinitely. Even with bordered closed to non essential travel there is still essential journeys buy people who may still be carrying it.

I still think the W&K tour was a royal two fingers up to NS & SG and too Wales over the travel restrictions being imposed on the British people.

In more razor sharp insights, Jason Leitch has said the study shows the virus has high spread in dense population areas...

@Rae36 I too am horrified by the complete lack of honesty or principle in politicians. We are really in a time of the lowest of the low ruling us, certainly in the UK

better watch out he doesn’t cut himself

All mine had birthdays with no family or friends this year - two didn’t even get a day out. Lots of managing expectations is my advice

There’s some quote about how anyone who wants to lead should disqualified for that very reason (wildly paraphrasing)...

@titsbumfannythelot

Just saw this on Twitter, FML

Don't get me wrong, I am a big fan of the EU but this political grandstanding doesn't help with any much needed stability.

And, yes, WTF is that all about?! It says "The European Council proposes..." and then gives the personal opinion of one person on another one. That's not the EC proposing anything! And I think it highly unlikely Ms von der Leyen would have to expand "EU" in her supposed "proposal" ...

I don't doubt Scotland would be allowed to apply to join the EU should it gain independence. And it may well be successful, particularly if regulations and so on haven't diverged that much from EU regs at the time of application, though I'm not up on all the financial conditions of entry which may be more tricky. But "we" won't just walk back in as if nothing had changed. And that kind of implication from whoever made the meme (neither the EC nor its president I'm pretty sure) is very distasteful.

@WouldBeGood

In more razor sharp insights, Jason Leitch has said the study shows the virus has high spread in dense population areas...

Goodness, he's on fire today isn't he!

3 things to make me laugh today.

1. Does that mean Scotland only gets to join the EU after a decade or so to become a properly independent Nation if we keep Nicola as Head of State in perpetuity? (reUvdL)
2. Apparently Mr Sturgeon doesn't use Whatsapp "now". No idea whether he did yesterday or will tomorrow.
3. Poor old Mr Blackford doesn't get to go door to door for socially distanced tea and cake with his constituents because Skye has a bridge. Only the SNP could p* off 1/2 million Edinburgh residents using a sledgehammer while micromanaging 300 small islanders who likely ignore politicians of all stripes all the time. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-55244001

"We estimate that during the period 17th July to 30th August, there were 46 import events from elsewhere into Scotland, which were composed of 28 (61% of events) from England, 13 (28% of events) from Europe (not including UK), and four from Asia (9%). After August 30th, we estimate only nine import events from elsewhere into Scotland with eight of them having been detected in England and one from Europe."

There's a big caveat on that - the sequencing databases have a bias towards English strains due to the amazing work of the COG-UK project, so it's probably not quite as bad as it looks. But the reservoir of Covid infections in the North of England appears to have been a major driver of the second Scottish wave.

I'm not an independence supporter, and am squeamish about a border b/w England and Scotland, BUT if there had been serious and enforced restrictions on non-essential travel b/w England and Scotland, and mandatory quarantine for people coming back into the country from Europe (as in Australia), perhaps we would not be in such an awful situation.

On birthdays, we've just missed them out this yearThere was a play in a park with 3 friends in the summer, but nothing more organised than that. I think strictly speaking you should have relatives separately either indoors or out, but if you are going to do that, I'd prefer it in a cafe with cake, rather than in a sleet-blasted Park.

I actually think that might be the answer, meet Auntie and cousin in park and lunch with GP. Meaning we can Christmas bubble with my family without too many worries.

Fair makes you wonder just how closely they've been tracking our movements and via what mechanisms....

@Dinnafashyersel

Fair makes you wonder just how closely they've been tracking our movements and via what mechanisms....

There is a reason I don't have the app!

BUT if there had been serious and enforced restrictions on non-essential travel b/w England and Scotland, and mandatory quarantine for people coming back into the country from Europe (as in Australia), perhaps we would not be in such an awful situation.

The reality is that it would have spread regardless between England and Scotland because (whether Queen Sturge likes it or not) we are essentially one country. The border is a line on a map, not a physical border. People work and live across the border every single day. I have a relative who owns a farm - the land is mostly on one side, whilst the farmhouse is on the other!

Closing international borders may have made more sense if it was done during the low period in summer, but it would only have been practical if the whole island was closed off. Not just Scotland

Or maybe we shouldn't have welcomed back International students ... or let Margaret Ferrier on a train.

I have friends who travelled throughout the UK and Internationally for work all through lockdown. I am highly sceptical of this "research" and the inferences being drawn from it.

Closing Australia and New Zealand worked because of their remoteness to the rest of the world. They won't have hundreds of lorries arriving and leaving daily. They'll have ships with a small crew who've been at sea for weeks and flights.

So much traffic goes across the English channel daily, trucks with goods and essential food, both on the ferries plus the traffic across the tunnel. At least once a week I spot a foreign truck on the motorways.

Am I right in thinking the English Channel is narrower than the Minch?

@Bikingbear

Closing Australia and New Zealand worked because of their remoteness to the rest of the world. They won't have hundreds of lorries arriving and leaving daily. They'll have ships with a small crew who've been at sea for weeks and flights.

So much traffic goes across the English channel daily, trucks with goods and essential food, both on the ferries plus the traffic across the tunnel. At least once a week I spot a foreign truck on the motorways.

Am I right in thinking the English Channel is narrower than the Minch?

Agree UK would be much harder to close - but Scotland ridiculously so whilst England/Wales remained open

Same here!

Birthday lunch for uncle in Edinburgh. No glass of bubbly.

Why are we still tier 3. 🙁🙁🙁

@WouldBeGood

In more razor sharp insights, Jason Leitch has said the study shows the virus has high spread in dense population areas...

Waves 👋🏻 from a not densely populated area of a T4, yet subject to the same restrictions as the densely populated area (they dare not name as to offend their loyal voters). So they can’t even use that as a defence these days. They are floundering around their own tier rules now.

BUT if there had been serious and enforced restrictions on non-essential travel b/w England and Scotland, and mandatory quarantine for people coming back into the country from Europe (as in Australia), perhaps we would not be in such an awful situation.

Yes, but how can you ever draw back from such a policy without going back to square one? If we'd isolated ourselves over the summer/ autumn we may be in a better situation virus-wise, (though with an economy even further wrecked and a population absolutely incandescent with rage) but as soon as we decided to open up and allow more travel, we'd run the risk of it beginning to spread again. Not to mention the absolute impossibility of restricting travel in the UK, and how much of that is unarguably essential.

Although we are critical of all governments here they have hard decisions in terms of weighing up what is reasonable in terms of restrictions on trade/ travel and its impacts on the economy vs total eradication of the virus. The SG and UK gov made the decision that it wasn't possible or desirable to isolate ourselves (as brexit is proving, we aren't self sufficient anyway, so would have great difficulties!) so we didn't have to deal with fallout from that, but do have to deal with the continued spread of the virus as a result. Both shit options, admittedly, but I don't think it's fair to say "if only..." when that would have been a disaster too....

Yip Jason gets 10 out of 10 for observation. Maybe he read the thread where I was educated on the reasons why. Cheers to the person who pointed out the stuff I'd never really thought about despite growing up in a multi.