Tiers Of A Clown

[Bytheloch]

Thread #3456

Released from our dirty T4, but still bamboozled. Let’s keep each other sane on here...

@Dinnafashyersel

Now have visions of Jason Leitch sitting on his toadstool in his referee outfit complete with bobbly hat and scarf and sparkly whistle. Fishing in the garden pond with his 2m ladle while emitting putrid puffs of doom and gloom.

Re the mink thing, they are generally pretty solitary creatures in the wild, so would be unlikely to spread it unchecked among themselves. Obviously a concern in farmed mink which are kept unnaturally close to each other, hence the cull. If it started spreading in rabbits or something, that might be the point at which we need to start worrying!

On the tierathon, not a clue. I think Aberdeen (and shire) and possibly some others may be put on the naughty t3 step, and no-ones moving down. 'Cos Christmas.

NotanActualSheep. Deaths at home were upwards of 700 per week above trend even throughout the Summer when Covid was low. Hard to determine whether all of that is people choosing to avoid hospitals for end of life care in light of restrictions or denial of treatment hastening death.

Trend with excess death being below covid death could be a phenomenon created by "death with covid" certification, but highlights the difficulty in tracking the pandemic via testing alone. eg Excess deaths in London were above average while media and politicians were still talking about relatively low rates of infection. London deaths are returning to average just as media and politicians are talking about spiralling infection rates. Deaths should lag infection rates and not the other way around. It is somewhat perplexing.

As long as deaths from covid are above excess deaths and deaths at home are above trend there will be a suspicion that the impact of restricting access to healthcare is being obfuscated by covid stats. Whether it will ever be possible to unpick any of that or learn lessons about how to better configure healthcare to cope is a different matter.

I reckon no one going down today.

Do we reckon it’s a dead cert for tier 4s again after Christmas??

@Dinnafashyersel that Jason Leitch vision! 😂😂

I'm thinking a few more joining us 3s today then probably 4 for Glasgow and Lanarkshire again in January?

@Dinnafashyersel

NotanActualSheep. Deaths at home were upwards of 700 per week above trend even throughout the Summer when Covid was low. Hard to determine whether all of that is people choosing to avoid hospitals for end of life care in light of restrictions or denial of treatment hastening death.

Trend with excess death being below covid death could be a phenomenon created by "death with covid" certification, but highlights the difficulty in tracking the pandemic via testing alone. eg Excess deaths in London were above average while media and politicians were still talking about relatively low rates of infection. London deaths are returning to average just as media and politicians are talking about spiralling infection rates. Deaths should lag infection rates and not the other way around. It is somewhat perplexing.

As long as deaths from covid are above excess deaths and deaths at home are above trend there will be a suspicion that the impact of restricting access to healthcare is being obfuscated by covid stats. Whether it will ever be possible to unpick any of that or learn lessons about how to better configure healthcare to cope is a different matter.

Thanks! Yes, it all looks like a bit of a mess, and as you say, difficult to pick out exactly what is happening, and where some aspects are hiding the impact of others... Just rip for political spinning in all directions over the coming months I'm sure.

I have to say, I'm shocked by the drug death news being reported today. I knew Scotland has a huge problem, but I didn't realise it was quite so bad compared to the rest of the UK. And if that is 2019 data it's worrying to think what this year will look like, with the lack of health focus on anything but covid.

@JamesMoriarty

I'm thinking a few more joining us 3s today then probably 4 for Glasgow and Lanarkshire again in January?

I reckon something like this too. Possibly the rest of the central belt being added to the New Year T4 just in case... And to serve us whinging Edinburghers right for questioning the Great Decision of the Leader.

@NotAnActualSheep I just can't get my head around the drug deaths. Why is it so high in comparison to the rest of UK? I knew we had a problem but I can't comprehend the scale of it. It's awful.

It’s the poverty and deprivation in parts of Scotland that do it. I used to be a criminal lawyer and the hopelessness of generations is very sad.

I’m just wondering if there’s any point going back to the gym if it’s just for a week or two til were locked up again.

The drug deaths figures are not good but SG would argue Scotland has a broader definition which tends to inflate figures relative to rUK (another variant of the with/from). That said the annual trend is upwards with 6% increase in 2019 alone. Also a worrying increase in younger age groups - in the past the increases have been blamed on ageing habitual drug users. No-one is halting society to tackle drug deaths but annual figures are around 25% of total Scottish Covid deaths and average age is way below 82.

For anyone interested Scottish Covid stats now include figures for vaccination so we should start to see the pace of the roll out quite soon. Tomorrow will only be the ramp up from Wednesday to last Sunday reported. However the first day reported last week was over 5k and should be substantial increase on this per day.

WouldbeGood I chose not to take DD3 back to her out of school clubs because I was concerned about how unsettling stop/starting would be for her. Also wanted to limit potential for contact tracing outside of school. On balance it was the correct call for us stuck in tier 3/4 bingo.

We have a much more self contained structure now. Hence my Princess alter ego and DH resurrecting his Dungeon Master skills. Very aware that we are extremely fortunate to have the spare capacity to do stuff like this.

@WouldBeGood

It’s the poverty and deprivation in parts of Scotland that do it. I used to be a criminal lawyer and the hopelessness of generations is very sad.

Yes, fair point, but there is similar deprivation in parts of England. I think the "with/from/ broader definition" thing that dinnafash mentioned may be something to do with it, but there does seem to be a huge disparity. And I'm surprised the SG hasn't tried to come up with more "like for like" comparison figures in retaliation. But in any case, yes, given the numbers in comparison to covid, and the average age of death compared to the same, it is horrifying it hasn't had more emphasis and funding up to now.

I think it correlates with the life expectancy in parts of Glasgow being the lowest in the Uk.

Child poverty is also higher than in the uk, I saw a study the other week.

@Dinnafashyersel a real alter ego? Like, dressing up?

Excuse me, what's wrong with mushroom related decs? I bought mine in a very "naice" shop to fit in with my rather pagan/scandi theme.. Nothing tacky is allowed through my door!

Oh I love your teeny tiny decorations even your mushroom. My tree is garish AND tacky not a jot do I care 👻

Had to travel from ED into Glasgow (JL as it happens). We threw caution to the winds and had lunch in a nice tearoom. It was only about 25% full at most - unlike cafes in ED!

Thought we'd be barred when they asked our postcode, but we got away with it. Expecting the polis to chap the door any minute. It was nice knowing you all.

BTW, one of my neighbours has those mushroom lights

My prediction for today is no area moving down, Aberdeen moving up and possibly East Lothian.

I do miss a bit of tacky and enjoy other people's glittery displays but can't help "art directing" my own, but DH and I work in the creative industries and just can't switch off the design urge at Christmas. At least the DSs are too grown up to bring home decs made of macaroni and glitter from school now!

I don’t think the farmed mink should be a worry in U.K.
Fur farming has been banned in England and Wales since 2000 and in Scotland since 2002. It’s obviously not banned in many countries in Europe hence the outbreak in Denmark.

Mushrooms are the new flamingos, by the look of it.

@WouldBeGood

I think it correlates with the life expectancy in parts of Glasgow being the lowest in the Uk.

Child poverty is also higher than in the uk, I saw a study the other week.

Yes, I suppose that all makes sense, and I imagine there is a fair amount of correlation (and indeed causation) between all those factors . dinnafash love the sound of your Princess Fairy! That's definitely an educational and fun thing for your DD, and not just an excuse to dress up in pretty sparkly things, yes?!

wbeezer oh, your tree is so cute and not tacky at all! The main thing is that your mushrooms don't light up, I think. Love the little moomin cup. We have definitely gone down the garish and tacky route, but we're still in the macaroni and glitter decoration stage. I sort of dream of having a beautiful and coordinated tree, but I don't think it's in my genes (parents still use my macaroni ornaments on theirs )

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

Had to travel from ED into Glasgow (JL as it happens). We threw caution to the winds and had lunch in a nice tearoom. It was only about 25% full at most - unlike cafes in ED!

Thought we'd be barred when they asked our postcode, but we got away with it. Expecting the polis to chap the door any minute. It was nice knowing you all.

BTW, one of my neighbours has those mushroom lights

We'll give you a character reference, don't worry! Sounds like a lovely day.

I am getting slightly tempted by those lights now, I'll have you know. With a little fairy elf Jason on the top.

There are still mink colonies in Scotland from when they were farmed (and escaped or were released). Called "American Mink" to distinguish from the much less brash European mink which isn't native to the UK either. They're a problem though, as they eat wild birds and eggs, esp ground nesting ones, and other native species, so there is a move to cull them in the wild. So a bit of Covid in that population probably wouldn't go amiss. They are cute though.