Hogmanae

[rookiemere]

This is an ongoing thread for Scottish mumsnetters - or indeed non Scottish mumsnetters such as myself, to comment on ongoing covid matters pertinent to ourselves, in a hopefully not too partisan and friendly fashion.

Identify as following the science

Cases growing bad vs cases decreasing good.

The absolutist always takes over - whether zero Covid? Now they're denying that's possible even with a vaccine and "some measures" remaining permanently.

Checking in a depressed fashion.

Posted on wrong thread! Midlothian council just announced that we are now not moving to tier 2 tomorrow. Completely devastating to all businesses who have ordered stock for reopening. How many times can they pick themselves up again? Am fed up with all this now.

Loving the new thread title

@mondaywine that really is poor for those in Midlothian.

Confused about Midlothian- what local businesses need to remain shut in T3 that would have been reopened in tier 2?

The main difference is around alcohol consumption is it not?

And travel - in t2 you can go to the canaries, not that I am still nursing hopes!

DH & I have decided that they identify as following the science...

Bother! Does that mean we have to believe them?

Icouldhavecheckedfirst yy to the Escher painting. That is exactly what it feels like.

mondaywine I know - it is awful for those who were going to reopen or open for longer. Such short notice. So sorry it has been confirmed. I was kind of hoping they'd have second thoughts tomorrow - but definitely wishful thinking.... bytheloch - I think most of the businesses will be open already, but opening hours for restaurants are longer, so they won't need to close at 6pm but can stay open for an evening meal too. Plus booze. So I would assume they'd taken bookings, bought in food and arranged staffing on the assumption they would be operating to those longer hours (or those that didn't really have any lunch custom may be opening for the first time). Also - gym classes will be allowed - I know my pilates instructor was doing group classes in person before they were banned in level 3, and was looking forward to going back to one in Loanhead this week, I think.

Sorry for any Midlothianers, it really sucks.

Typing from a T4, which should never have been 4 if based on uniquely Stirling Council/Stirlingshire residents. Also Impacts residents in our closest council areas who are both T3, but employed in T4 at businesses that have had to close, so they lose out too🤷‍♀️

Here you all are, I can’t keep up! Hope everyone is okay, and sending a wee dram to anyone who is struggling.

Just checking in - took a couple of days away from the news to do crafty shit instead of depressing myself! Just seen the news about Midlothian - is it any wonder businesses like Gleneagles have just decided to pull the plug? How much will this decision have cost people...

Restaurants can stay open later. Serving last meal at 4.30 had meant quite a few hadn't opened at all in tier 3. Staff have been taken off furlough, stock ordered, restaurants prepared etc. Our local gastro pub had 210 booking for Saturday. All bookings after 4.30 have to be cancelled. For me it’s nothing to do with drinking, I just don’t want my evening meal at 4pm and many are the same. So much trade lost. For me, I wanted to visit our aunt in the Borders who lives herself with no family close by.

I've realised that I may be a bit insensitive whinging about level 2/ 3 when so many of you are in level 4 . But I suppose everyone has their own things they are wanting to do, and expectations for what they will be able to do - so although its different levels of shit for everyone, it's still shit. And a closed business is a closed business and worried owners and employees, whatever level they are in.

We're all having a schneider of a time.

The thing about midlothian is 2 broken promises really. We were told that announcements about tier changes would be made on Tuesdays and implemented on Fridays. Midlothian should have moved on friday and then ben subject to any new decisions made tomorrow also to be implemented on Friday so at least businesses would have had a few days to prepare, a week to do the extra hours and the a few days of warning if they were going to be shut again. Broken promise 1. Then to be told that you'd be moving down from tomorrow and have it removed the evening before is broken promise 2.

Stirling has been majorly shat on. First being put into 3 in the first place and then to be moved to 4 based on a spike without being given any chance to see if it moved down again. Not that I want to bring it back to Glasgow and the shires again, but they had months at figures far higher than stirling ever got to before being 4rd.

Basically the whole published info about the levels/tiers was shite shite. It's a finger in the air job now. So fucking sick of the lot of it.

None of it is following science or the WHO recommendations or anything.

This is the biggest worldwide scandal and crime that we will ever see. The fall out in deaths from undiagnosed cancers and heart disease and many other things, the suicides, the mental health, the economic fallout especially on those living in poverty and the impact on those in countries where they don't have furlough and safety nets etc will be even more devastating.

@mondaywine

Restaurants can stay open later. Serving last meal at 4.30 had meant quite a few hadn't opened at all in tier 3. Staff have been taken off furlough, stock ordered, restaurants prepared etc. Our local gastro pub had 210 booking for Saturday. All bookings after 4.30 have to be cancelled. For me it’s nothing to do with drinking, I just don’t want my evening meal at 4pm and many are the same. So much trade lost. For me, I wanted to visit our aunt in the Borders who lives herself with no family close by.

From a business owner POV (albeit in a different sector) this must be about the crappiest scenario. At least if you know you are closed you minimise costs - staff furloughed, limited food ordered and probably different food as people tend to order lighter food at lunch vs dinner. Level 2 also allows alcohol outdoors and indoors with a main meal so many places will have ordered up supplies of draft beer and quite possibly already tapped it. That's money they didn't have to spend yet, and which depending on timescales might end up down the drain.

Basically the whole published info about the levels/tiers was shite shite. It's a finger in the air job now. So fucking sick of the lot of it.

Yup, pretty much nowhere seems to be in a tier that corresponds to their actual cases. % positives is not a sufficiently good metric as it's too subject to variance depending on testing strategies and what's going on locally. All you need is a big school with a load of kids sent home to isolate - loads of folk are getting tested without symptoms in this situation - and you end up with skewed numbers making one area have a lower % positive than its neighbour.

The projected base numbers and hospital usage are important but they are projections. I haven't seen that they have published details of the maths behind these models, what confidence intervals they're using, and so on.

thanks everyone, and @Bikingbear don't worry about it. am normally ok and then random things set me off...

posted on the light thread to say that i spent ages looking at christmas baking recipes which helped soothe me.

tis rubbish for Midlothian, and makes me think that there probably won't be any kind of announcement tomorrow re: other areas and potentially shifting down...

May I join? Also in Midlothian - was looking forward to my exercise class letting over 18s back but I guess I can kiss that one goodbye again! The club is struggling as it is with West Lothian going into tier 4.

Does this mean I can visit (outdoors) people in Edinburgh again? I’m so confused.

thanks everyone, and @Bikingbear don't worry about it. am normally ok and then random things set me off...

Random stuff will get you for a while, when you're least expecting it.

@anon444877

And travel - in t2 you can go to the canaries, not that I am still nursing hopes!

I brought something similar up in the last thread - I don't understand how you can go to the Canaries if say you were travelling from Glasgow T4 even if you are in a T2 area because you can't travel from a T2 to a T4 area?

Surely you can only fly from Glasgow airport now if you live in Renfrewshire.

@icanboogieboogiewoogie

Surely you can only fly from Glasgow airport now if you live in Renfrewshire.

No you can't as that's T4 and you are not supposed to leave the country...In Edinburgh they were saying that T2 such as East Lothian could travel to the airport but no-one in Edinburgh T3 or West Lothian T4 were allowed to, though they could travel to the airport and look at the planes I'd imagine similar rules for Glasgow.

I'd imagine that the airport is pretty much at the Edinburgh/West Lothian border.

The airport is close to the border but definitely in Edinburgh. I believe that because you are allowed to transit through a higher tier then you can go on holiday from Edinburgh or Glasgow if you are in T1/T2. If you are in T3/T4 you are allowed to go to the airport if it is in your council, but you are not allowed to get on a plane as then you'd be leaving your council area and that's forbidden.

I think

Yeah, you said it better than me @StatisticallyChallenged but that's my understanding.

@StatisticallyChallenged

Basically the whole published info about the levels/tiers was shite shite. It's a finger in the air job now. So fucking sick of the lot of it.

Yup, pretty much nowhere seems to be in a tier that corresponds to their actual cases. % positives is not a sufficiently good metric as it's too subject to variance depending on testing strategies and what's going on locally. All you need is a big school with a load of kids sent home to isolate - loads of folk are getting tested without symptoms in this situation - and you end up with skewed numbers making one area have a lower % positive than its neighbour.

The projected base numbers and hospital usage are important but they are projections. I haven't seen that they have published details of the maths behind these models, what confidence intervals they're using, and so on.

Yes, this all makes perfect sense. I think their modelling data is taken from the reports published weekly here. Though as I understand it all comes from the Imperial model and I'm not sure how that has responded to actual observed numbers.