October Becomes November Lockdown

[BlueThursday]

New thread

I suspect this will be the second of many

Summary:

-seeing a slowing in the increase (from 40% to 4%0
-estimate R 1.3

Europe firmly in grip of 2nd wave. Must act individually and collectively...

Strategic framework - aim to be strong enough to work but proportionate...

5 key factors
-positive /100k
-% positives
-projections
-hospital capacity
-ITU capacity
plus travel patterns between authorities and extent to which healthcare facilities are shared. (bets this is the excuse for East/Mid Lothian anyone??)

Level 3 should be for as short a time as possible
Will review whether changes are needed on a weekly basis - confirmed to parliament on a Tuesday to take effect on a Friday

Taking a deliberately cautious approach
-don't consider it safe or prudent to put any area to level 0

Levels
Highland, Moray, Western islands, Orkney, Shetland - level 1 but with no household meeting

Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen, Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, Argyll and Bute, Perth and Kinross Level 2. P&K and Borders finely balanced due to interconnection with neighbouring areas for health

Inverclyde level 3 because of close connectivity between other areas in West Scotland. East and West Dunbartonshire, Glasgow, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, E/S/N Ayrshire, Stirling, Falkirk and Clackmannanshire, Edinburgh and all Lothians. Would hope that at an early review point they will be able to move East Lothian in particular and possibly Edinburgh to level 2. Dundee is also moving in to Level 3. Perth & Kinross and Angus: behave or you're getting level 3!

Lanarkshire; decision between level 3 and 4 very finely balanced - high stats but some evidence situation is stabilising, police councils etc have plans. So they are remaining in level 3 at present but is very borderline and being reviewed daily. People across Lanarkshire; behave yourself (paraphrasing!)

Travel: we are asking that if you live in a level 3 or 4 area do not do so unless you require to do so for essential reasons. By essential we mean work, education, local outdoor exercise, essential shopping, medical, caring. Previously at health board area but now applies at local authority area... Police can't check everyone, please comply...

Saw it coming re East Lothian but it's a bit of a nonsense.

My parents live about 3 miles away yet a different LA. So that means I can’t doorstep chat?

yep shite. we are lower than Fife and D&G and the Lothians and about the same as Perth and Kinross, our co-dependencies for health care will be Falkirk, also below 100 per 100k over 7 days and then Clackmannan which is about 140, but clackmannan is obviously tiny so that skews the numbers big time. And our Hospital numbers showed no evidence of being overwhelmed.

Not that the Forth Valley got any mention at all other than being in tier 3.

It's a fucking farce.

Are you both the same tier @BlueThursday? If you are then it's allowed if you need to go between 3 and other levels then no it's not - wouldn't stop me doing it though

are you sure waxonn? that wasn't how I interpreted it, I took it as stay in your local authority area (unless for exceptions)

We are same tier but thought it was council by council from Monday rather than health board

I thought she emphasised not moving between Tier 3 and 4 and lower tier areas rather than local authority. She probably said that as well re Local authorities, i wasn't completely listening. But then does anyone care? maybe when your area is on 64 and others are around or over 300 and you are all treated the same regardless, with no explanation (not that there is a valid one) you stat to not give the slightest bit of a shit.

I also noted the fact that it is to be reviewed weekly but they've fiddled with the dates so any changes not until Friday 13th I think. So in two weeks time unless I'm mistaken.

I'd check the cancellation policy - it's the old start out high and make people excessively grateful for tiny increments in freedom strategy so in a week there might be better news. If, as the SNP is saying their measures are working...

She did say both, I think basically butchered the message but defo emphasised local authority

I agree, if I feel the need to do some non essential shopping I'll be off to Edinburgh regardless.

Even going by health board, FV is still under 100 and almost the same as Tayside which has been given 2 with the exception of Dundee.

yes, but no changes for a fortnight regardless and agree, if I feel the need to go anywhere I'll be doing it.

Essential travel definition - travelling outside of your council area for ‘local outdoor exercise’ is permitted? So tier 3 visitors to a neighbouring tier 3 is ok, I assume?

I'm sure NS will not be able to resist giving us another steer before 13th!

Yes re dates - it's supposed to be (going forward) announced on Tuesday to take effect on Friday but (presumably because this has been announced on Thursday to take effect on Monday) the next announcement will be the 10th

@trumpisaflump

Crap. We had booked a hotel in St Andrews (we're from Ayrshire) with friends from Edinburgh in a few weeks. I think we'll need to cancel won't we? We had booked dinner out too but meal booked for 7.30 so no point if booze not being served after 8. This was the only thing I had had to look forward to for months.

I'd hang fire before you cancel.

When they brought in the restrictions just before the October week, it was no nonessential travel. Then a day later clarified "but if you have a holiday booked you can still holiday"

Re Lanarkshire there was a letter sent from the two councils, signed by Police and NHS bosses asking not to put is into teir 4. The police are observing increased numbers of house parties when the pubs etc are closed. The BBC Webpage also mentioned a "religious gathering" of about 20 folk in a house in Motherwell

Anyone has a link where I can watch the speech. I've missed it 🙁

Hmmm. Not much unexpected there I suppose. Still, bit grim having it confirmed. Re travel, the BBC summary says
If you live in a Level 3 council area or in future a Level 4 area, please do not travel outside the council area you live in - unless you require to do so for essential reasons
If you live in a Level 1 or 2 local authority area, you must not travel into a Level 3 or Level 4 council area except for essential purposes

So if you live in level 3 you can't go to any other council areas, but if you live in level 1 or 2 you can (but not into level 3). That may or may not be clarified later!

I do feel sorry for people like waxon who are in a low incidence area in the central belt. There wasn't any hope given there really (unlike Inverclyde, East Lothian and even Edinburgh) , due to interconnectedness in health etc of the whole area. That's a bit of a cop out really. If they are bringing that in as an "indicator", at least admit it...

Ah well, another fortnight of no fun...

Yes @NotAnActualSheep and even if you look at it by health authority we should still be in a 2 as overall still under 100 per 100k over 7 days.

After watching it it's pretty much what I expected for central belt. Though it seems a bit unfair for some places which have low incidence but are close to worse off areas.

Not convinced we won't be following in Europe's footsteps into harsher lockdowns by December, but trying to be hopeful.

What a fucking shambles

I tthink that's the right interpretation NotAnActualSheep - if you are tier 1 or 2 you don't have a local authority travel restriction but you shouldn't go in to a tier 3 or 4 (unless "essential")

If you're a 3 or 4 it's local authority limited.

I think East Lothian (also low incidence) is basically getting shafter for the same reasons as Waxon - interconnectedness with Edinburgh. Which in turn has interconnectedness with West Lothian where rates are (or were last time I looked) pretty high. I suspect this interconnectedness will be used to keep us in 3 for a while.

Maybe if they stopped centralising everything it would help. There's a hospital a stone's throw from me, it used to have A&E but now A&E is in Edinburgh. AFAIK there's no A&E in East Lothian at all. We're right beside the A1 and for us google is currently saying 30 minutes to Edinburgh Royal. In reality there's plenty of places in Edinburgh that would take as long to get there so it's borderline OK. But there's a lot of places further out than us still going to the same hospital.

It makes sense for specialist services, but in times like these it's causing problems

Level 3 should be for as short a time as possible

Anyone who believes that is a total numpty. File in in the same drawer as

"short term measures to protect the NHS"
"never aimed for an elimination strategy"
"blended learning was only ever a contingency"
"SQA results are fair"
"quick 16 day circuit breaker"

It's all flannel, all lies, they are making it up as they go along and are trying to gaslight us all into thinking they have a strategy.