October Becomes November Lockdown

[BlueThursday]

New thread

I suspect this will be the second of many

It is strange right enough.

@WouldBeGood

I got all my children by accident, to be fair 😂

:o To be fair he wasn't exactly an accident, we just figured that we didn't want too big a gap so if it took another 4 years we better not leave it too long and DS1 was THE BEST BABY EVER! Until he started projectile vomiting but by then it was too late....

Just seeing the french lockdown - ICU at 58 percent capacity, forecast totally overwhelmed in mid Nov, lockdown with schools open.

Got to admire the simplicity of those metrics and based on ICU capacity.

I wonder what % of ICU is normally full in France at this time of year?

When you just get given one figure, it's hard to see whether things are bad or not.

You do need context - 58% full doesn't sound crazy high, but obviously oif they usually run at 10% then it's an issue!

I'm sort of thinking now it's no use all these lockdowns if schools are still open. I'm totally for keeping school's open but they must be driving the spread of this. But I don't know what the answer is.

I think it seems fi be agreed that it’s mainly household contacts that drive the spread.

Massive political and practical football to stop that....

Also they really need a national campaign to teach people how to wear the masks. I'm in retail and the amount of older people, my age and above (50+), that wear the mask underneath their noses is unreal. I know it must be difficult for them but they really don't seem to realise the masks must cover noses and mouths. It's so frustrating.

If I was in charge I’d go for social distancing rather than masks.

I was reading around - half the ICU beds are occupied by covid patients already, and it's the mid Nov projection that they'll be 40 percent over capacity that's made them act.

We're nowhere near that though are we in terms of covid patients in ICU.

@WouldBeGood

If I was in charge I’d go for social distancing rather than masks.

People forget social distancing though. I constantly jump back from customers and staff alike. Its really annoying me now.

@StatisticallyChallenged - I saw this t-shirt and thought about you :o

I see Nicola tweeted about Germany's lockdown - that would be the one where 10 people from 2 households are still allowed to meet according to Sky. I'd like that one please - not on the tier table here though til the mythical tier 0 or tier 1 at some point.

Jeez, wrong one -

But is any of this data actually complete ? Good t shirt.

@ssd I’ve found that much more since the masks.

The point I mangled was that the lockdown reason Macron has announced focused squarely on hospital capacity (at least as reported in our press), which is what we were saying this morning. Scot gov is using more indicators and intervening with restrictions earlier, interesting to see how this pans out.

Is it just me who finds it much harder to think with the mask on? I reckon it's harder to remember to social distance too when you are hot and finding it a bit hard to see/breathe properly and trying to get round and out fast.

yeah @anon444877, that's why usually only do click and collect unless it's just a top up of bread and milk. at least I can think about what i want while sitting at home. Still miss things and then get stuff that isn't what I would pick, e.g.. not always the best fruit and veg, but it's great just picking it up in the car park.

[quote WouldBeGood]@ssd I’ve found that much more since the masks.[/quote]
Me too. People think masks are the equivalent of a get out of jail free card.

I’ve definitely noticed how bad my hearing is now faces are covered.

Years of going to the Arches has fkd my hearing

@anon444877

Is it just me who finds it much harder to think with the mask on? I reckon it's harder to remember to social distance too when you are hot and finding it a bit hard to see/breathe properly and trying to get round and out fast.

Maslow's hierarchy of needs, innit? You're focused on your basic human needs to breathe and see.

The niceties only come into play once you have satisfied the basics. And if you're wheezing, panicking about suffocating, or constantly adjusting a mask over your eyes, you don't have any brain space left for socially distancing.

I’ve had a few proper turns with the mask on. That’s made me wary so I avoid places I have to wear them but for the bare minimum. It’s a nasty feeling but overwhelming

Yes i try to mostly shop online except for top ups - what with the masks and the younger dc popping her nose out when not watched they are not conducive to successful shopping!

Schools are a challenging one - I've seen stats banded about saying things like "30% of cases originate in schools" but I think they're misrepresenting. The best stats I've found are the weekly public health england ones (not Scotland but no reason to believe that proportionately they'd be dramatically different). These give a breakdown of acute respiratory incidents reported to public health teams, and the numbers they quote are two types; suspected incidents reported (not necessarily any confirmed cases linked to the setting) and "The number of incidents in each setting with at least one laboratory confirmed case of COVID19"

Now;

• by definition any child who attends school and gets covid will, it seems, meet this standard.
• this only includes those cases which are linked to a particular type of institution/setting; so any percentages extracted from it aren't really correct as they're excluding all the cases with no link to settings. So, those in people's homes for example...
• the presence of a link to a setting does not mean that it was transmitted within that setting

-they lump all educational settings together

I think by sheer weight of numbers and the way the analysis is being done educational settings will come out of this looking bad because of the number of people who attend them.

Parent A gets covid. Transmits it to child B, who has no symptoms but gets tested. Positive test. That's an incident linked to an educational setting.

Last week in England there were
"327 incidents were from educational settings where 252 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2"

Google suggests there are
24,323 schools
106 universities
at least 240 colleges
and probably a bunch of others not included. So approximately 1% of educational institutions had at least 1 linked covid cases, which may or may not have been acquired or transmitted within the setting

There's about 15k care homes - their numbers were 311/210 by comparison, and there will be far fewer people who can be classed as linked to a care home (as most care homes are significantly smaller than your average school). The care home population for England seems to be about 418k whilst there are 8.82 million pupils in schools, and over 2 million at university.

The way these percentate of infections has been banded about is ridiculous