October Becomes November Lockdown

[BlueThursday]

New thread

I suspect this will be the second of many

Does anyone have the stats on % who test negative after that length of time but then develop it?

This is one of many questions we would have the answers to if a proper data collection plan (with active follow up) had been in place over the last 6/7 months. A decent data collection plan would have collected information on the symptoms (type and severity) people had and the number of PCR cycles necessary to confirm a positive 'case' (which I think still isn't standardized), and then link this to similar information about other linked cases. We could have gathered information on how long after exposure people became symptomatic/tested positive/both, and how likely people with different levels of symptoms/viral load are to pass on the infection. As it is, I don't even think information on symptoms is being collected, so we can't even accurately estimate the level of asymptomatic infection, let alone how likely this group is to pass it on. That's without even getting into the with/of COVID debate.

@NotAnActualSheep that’s a really foolish move they’re making on the isolation period. High compliance on that will be much more effective than very low compliance on fourteen. It also dissuades people from getting tested/reporting symptoms if it condemns them snd others to a fortnight isolating. Poor show.

A friend of mine previously voted SNP, not that she was for or against Scexit, but probably for the proper reason to vote for someone. The incumbent was not doing anything for the area so friend decided that the SNP person was talking about things they were going to do, friend thought they sounded good and that it would be good to give someone else a chance. Surely we should all be voting for those who best align with our views and would be the best for our area? Anyhoo they were as rubbish as expected and now all this, so now she is looking for who to vote for next. It's really dire to be honest, I don't really think any of them do what they are elected and paid for and here we are. Loads shouting that we shouldn't be challenging etc., but that's exactly our role. We basically get what we vote for and complacency makes it worse.

What I've taken from this is that I'm going to start being a bit more vocal to the people that have been elected to represent me. I may not have voted for them but they should be representing their constituencies regardless.

Precisely wouldbegood ! It's all very well for people to say "just stick to the fucking rules and we can get back to normal" but the "fucking rules" are devastating for many. A week is bad enough to not be able to leave the house, but, simplistically, it could mean a family living off 75% of their income compared to 50%. Not to mention education, service provision etc which are being seriously affected by the 14 days. I too would like to know the number of cases identified between 8 and 14 days after contact... though as youcannot says, we've kind of missed out on getting that data through inaction.

@WaxOnFeckOff I thought if voting SNP because of Brexit but couldn’t because of the gender stuff.

There’s no effective opposition, which is a big problem. Much like in England now

I can't get past the mental gymnastics involved in wanting to be separate in order to hand control to someone else. Makes sense I guess from the control point of view as both organisations seek to limit individual autonomy so maybe perfect bedfellows after all.

I voted against Brexit but it was actually a close decision for me.

I love going to France, easy travel, cheap wine I can load up with to bring home, not the six bottles of before.😃 I’d like to live there but won’t be able to now, so I’m pretty devastated by that too.

I love most nipping through the tunnel, no hassle. Fewer borders, not more is my ideal for the world.

DH drives for a job, I don't really like distance driving and neither of us really wants to drive abroad anymore so that type of holiday is really out. We did the south of France one year by flying into Nice and having a hire car but DH spends the whole holiday worrying that something will happen to the car so it's really not worth it.

@StatisticallyChallenged

Latest from Swinney - students might not be allowed home at Christmas and halloween sweeties could be purveyors of coronavirus.

Happy holidays!

Yeah I think if I had a first year (or indeed any other year of student) away from home at Uni they'd be coming home, whatever Swinney decrees.

I just couldn't vote for the SNP either nationally or locally because of Scexit... even though many of their policies (in theory at least... I don't think they have done a good job at putting them into practice in government in many cases) are in accordance with my beliefs. You just know that no matter how much they say "we won't take any vote as a mandate for independence" they will then turn round and say "we have a mandate for independence" even if people voted for them because of their policy on cycle lanes or drains or something. Also, their habit of policy-based evidence making is really pissing me off.

It is a slight matter of pride that I have no elected SNP representatives in the Scottish Parliament (even on the list) or at Westminster. So I couldn't appeal to them even if I wanted. I agree on the lack of opposition, though. I'm another one who's politically homeless at the moment.

i like the idea of fewer borders but just not on board with some of the other stuff, that's why i had a bit of a dilemma and I think if you really aren't sure then it's better to vote to keep the status quo especially when any change might be irreversible.

My student will be home, sat at my table eating his turkey and roasters whether he (son or swinney) likes it or not. Bangs gavel.

Yeah I think if I had a first year (or indeed any other year of student) away from home at Uni they'd be coming home, whatever Swinney decrees.

Me too. They are taking all of this too far now. They don’t actually own people

Especially given how young some of those first years can be - the hell would it leave a 17 year old alone in half empty halls over Xmas.

Agree entirely re data @Y0uCann0tBeSer10us - whilst it's not exciting or glamorous good data gathering should have been one of the absolute top priorities. They're trying to model a pandemic with shit data, and when it comes to modelling crap in = crap out.

Let's face it we don't actually accurately know much:

• how many have had it, really?
• proportion of those who are asymptomatic ?
• proportion who transmit (evidence suggests r number is far from consistent)
• relationship between symptoms and transmission (do asymptomatic spread/spread as much)
• time from contact to symptoms
• time from contact to positive PCR test
• reinfection rates
• actual mortality rate
• time immunity lasts for (too early for an upper estimate but we should have a lower one)

I could go on but I won't. It's a shit show.

Assuming that some students will be travelling home to family in England, (where it is still permitted to mix households of < 6 people inside in many areas I believe), it is a bit presumptious of JS to tell them that they can't. Follow the rules of the country/ area you are in and all that.

waxon I like your approach! Enforced jollity is the way forward...

waxon I like your approach! Enforced jollity is the way forward...

To be fair the boy would traverse covid infested seas for his mammies Roast Tatties - that's ma boy... :o

Step too far threatening for students not being allowed to go home. Mine is in England, Tier 3 area and he’ll be coming back even if we all need to isolate.

Looks like Lothians and the Forth Valley will be tier 3 according to a leaked document. I knew she wouldn’t put Edinburgh in a lower tier than Glasgow for political reasons.

www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/edinburgh-set-officially-be-placed-tier-three-scottish-governments-coronavirus-restrictions-3015502?fbclid=IwAR0Gl9LvscmksNyGgxxAq6AvcgSkkSBf55FcRFVRSDldyaxekBFopCoWbWM

Did we really expect anything else? I don't think anywhere will even get Tier 1. It's unjustifiable and is this the method of communication nowadays, leaked documents?

Not surprised, but how you justify putting east lothian and Glasgow in the same tier is a nonsense. This should never be a political football

so it will basically be, central belt Tier 3 so as you were, Tayside you can get chucked in as well. Rest of you Tier 2 and a threat to Lanarkshire that they'll get 4 if they are naughty. No hesitation to put Aberdeen, borders or any east coast area into Tier 4 (except Tayside) but the west can carry on regardless.

Thanks for posting the article ecosse.

Wonder what "consolidation" of the edinburgh/ East Lothian data would be needed to allow them to be in level 2? The consolidation of the west coast figures falling too, maybe? Depressing that they're not even considering level 0 anywhere. When will that come into play I wonder?

Depressing that tier 1 isn't getting mentioned anywhere - that is medium. Are they honestly saying that all places in Scotland are high or very high?!

https://ichef-bbci-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/695/cpsprodpb/8A7E/production/1150454533covidtierralertsystemmengland640-nc-005.png

We will never get into tier 2 or tier 1 or that elusive star 🌟 tier0 in Edinburgh

It’s like a crock of gold at the end of the rainbow tier 0

And yeah students will be coming home for Christmas. And they may not go back

Imagine being stuck in some halls of residence over Christmas

It# really inhumane for swinney to plan that

@StatisticallyChallenged
I agree entirely and would like to add
-a better breakdown of those testing positive in hospital - were they admitted with other conditions / for other reasons and then tested positive for covid subsequently. How many are resident in long-stay hospitals / mental health hospitals? How many new admissions were because of acute respiratory distress cause by Covid?

• what are the outcomes for those in hospital with Covid i.e. how long is the average stay, how many people die. What are the demographics of this group - age, co-morbidities, underlying life-threatening conditions etc
• how many Covid transmissions are linked to health and social care provision, i.e. in hospital, care homes, carers going into people's homes to deliver care
• how many transmissions are linked to certain types of employment / workplace

if this info is out there it is very hard to find