So is IndyRef2 dead and buried after the General Election?

[MacarenaFerreiro]

So SNP lost 21 seats on Thursday and most people believe this is because of their Indy obsession.

Does losing so many seats mean we can forget about another referendum for the foreseeable (once in a generation, remember) and if we can, what's the point of the SNP?

Personally I think Ms Sturgeon totally misjudged it in the same way as May did - she thought that she would lose maybe a couple of seats in the election but nowhere near 22. She certainly didn't expect to see high profile Nats like Salmond, Robertson and Nicolson out on their ears. Half a million voters almost switched to pro-Union parties.

But of course the SNP will say they're still the biggest party in Scotland, still have a mandate, still have an obligation to push for Indy yadda yadda yadda. They've been pretty quiet since Friday mind you...

Not dead and buried but definitely on the back burner

I doubt it

SNP spin doctors are going to have to do an AWFUL lot of rebranding then if they're going to try to tell people it's not about Independence. Ask anyone in a game of word association what they think about when they hear "SNP" and they're going to say "Independence".

If the Tories listen to Ruth Davidson, it will stay on the back burner.

If the Tories ignore to Ruth Davidson and Scottish Tories, it is only a matter of time.

Considering that the conservative vote is notably up and the SNP's is down from 50 to about 36%, some nerve will be required to say that indyref2 is still on. However, doubt not... In a little while as soon as the situation has calmed down, they WILL be on the offensive again. After all, what is the point of the SNP if they don't push for indyrefN (with N as large a number as necessary)?

I really hope so, but for as long as the SNP still have a majority, it is a huge threat bubbling away under the surface just ready to erupt again.

They will come out now and pretend they have put it on the back-burner and feign frustration whenever anyone mentions it...accusing all the other parties of keeping it on the agenda - but it is still their reason for existence.

I'd imagine they'll claim that the brexit deal is a disaster for Scotland and will return to their 'once in a generation unless there's a material change' excuse .

I'm hoping that as the massive fallout from brexit becomes more and more clear the appetite for more disruption and uncertainty in the shape of a referendum will quash it.

I hope so, but unlikely.

We can't live in hope. It was an unexpected result for Sturgeon and I suspect she will try whatever she can to gloss over it and will then start talk about it in a few months.

They'll still talk about it constantly, as they need to keep the momentum going with their core voters. But they won't actually do it for a while as they can't afford to lose again.

However, if there's a bad recession due to brexit then it could all change again quite quickly.

Hard brexit will probably mean a new indy vote on the next couple of years. I reckon a soft brexit will keep it off the agenda for another 10. It's as much to do with Labour's resurgence as anything else as the snp can no longer say that scots face being governed forever by a tory government they didn't for for, as there is a reasonable prospect of labour or lab/lib government at some point.

I bet they are going to say that a Tory government is too far to the right and a labour one too far to the left. Theirs, however, would be JUST right, hence the need for a new referendum ;)

I've never thought of Nicola as Goldilocks before

I don't think it has or will ever go away unfortunately . Agree that the outcome of Brexit may increase support again.

I also think that no voters who voted Tory to send a message to sturgeon aren't necessarily going to continue to vote Tory and that might allow the SNP to increase their number of seats.

As this election has shown the mood of the voting public can flip very quickly.

Which is precisely why you can't deal with such an issue with a referendum.

Oh good grief no.

The SNP still won the election in Scotland so whilst it was a bad night in terms of a fall back in support, the idea that the SNP (and therefore the de facto dream of an independent Scotland) are defeated is wishful thinking by the unionists.

The momentum is not heading in their direction and independence is further away that it has been for some time. To be honest, I think the Brexit result was played badly and made the election campaign in Scotland little to do with policies and everything to do with whether or not a question should be asked. Which is a little limiting and lacking in ambition on both sides.

Future issues include how damaging Brexit will be. Given that unionists claimed that an indy Scotland would not be in the EU and then promptly voted us out of the EU does need to be resolved at some point. If its a bad Brexit then momentum might swing back - after all, Brexit was not the choice of people living in Scotland.

A second General Election and Corbyn winner could be an issue as well. Odd but not impossible. This is a problem for the SNP. A large swath of support for independence came from people who felt that unionists did not care about them. That Westminster politics was about, for example, squeezing the vulnerable as hard as possible. Those people felt they had nothing to lose when it came to Indy. If a Corbyn Government can deliver for them then unionism can point to the strengths of being part of the UK includes not just Trident, Union Flag parading armed forces and protected pensions for people who have them.

The SNP need to get back to delivering ideas and policies for Scotland. They did this well (regardless of your opinion on the outcome of those policies) and were rewarded by a majority in the Scottish Parliament. Since then, they have narrowed their focus and become brittle. If they start showing an ambition for Scotland beyond the yes/no result then momentum can swing back to them. Its what got them as high as 45% but since then its been all about blame as opposed to ambition for Scotland.

scottishdiem, the day the SNP does actually do SOME work, will be the day when I win the lottery.
In Scotland for the past, what, 4 years AT LEAST only indipendance ha been talked about. NOTHING else. So it should come as no surprise that the general election was about only this one issue (and the same applies to the local elections).
Is that surprising? Alas, not as by definition the snp is a single issue party (not unlike UKIP). Take away indipendance and its reason for being in existence disappears.
Even your post makes it clear: indipendance is the key issue; the rest can wait.

Besides, whether we are going to get a "good" or "bad" brevet will be known in years to come (and in all honesty, I don't think that much will change either way) and not the day after the deal is announced. AT THE VERY LEAST you need to see how the deal plays out and that won't be clear overnight. But that wold require that the SNP stops talking about IndyrefN, but that cannot be because it would make them irrelevant.

Thats not entirely fair Arkadia:

Abusive Behaviour and Sexual Harm (Scotland) Act
Human Trafficking and Exploitation (Scotland) Act
Carers (Scotland) Act
Marriage and Civil Partnership (Scotland) Act

are all good things. But the rate of Bills/Acts before the referendum was greater than afterward. Furthermore, Statutory Instrument levels are running at high levels again which are another method of actually do work as you put it. The problem for the SNP is they have been in power for a decade and are running out of big ideas and are instead merely managing things - which is where they are being exposed on things like educational attainment.

I think you can see how the Brexit deal will play out based on its contents. Its a bad deal if you cant see whats going to happen next. You will immediately be able to see things like fishery boundaries are for example. You will be able to discern what Westminster (via various pieces of legislation) wants to spend its money on. You will be able to see where university research money is coming from and what rules are in place to govern cross border collaboration for example.

I have loads of Yes voters on my fb feed, so the last few days have been a treat. Linking to post mortem blogs by wee ginger dug, wings over Scotland etc. Each article more utterly bonkers than the last.

One blog argued passionately that the SNP lost seats for being too timid about independence, and called on them to massively ramp up the indy message, complete with honesty about currency plans.

The same blog also said that the Yes campaign needs to detach from the SNP and become more radical.

They'll be marginal fanatics within ten years imo.

One blog argued passionately that the SNP lost seats for being too timid about independence, and called on them to massively ramp up the indy message, complete with honesty about currency plans.

There is an element of truth to this though. Independence has become the main thing as opposed to the enabling thing for so much more. Hence the lack of ideas, passion and general listlessness of the SNP campaign. But now is not the time for a second referendum and that is what is so disappointing about Scottish politics. SNP kind of focussed on the actual question and unionists totally focussed on the actual question. Neither side campaigning for what is important right now.

True, what does RD stand for? Who knows... What does NS stand for?? Who knows!!
However, the feeling for/against indyrefN is so strong that it has left no room for anything else and we are all worse off for that. However, who is the incumbent? To look for the culprit we have to start there.
Besides, I am sure that the accomplishments you list are all very important, but I am afraid they mean nothing to me.
What does matter to me is education and on that, well...
As an aside, and indirectly, i am affected by the so-called bedroom tax, about which the SNP have been hypocritical from beginning to end, this because such an arrangement has been in force for time immemorial in the private sector and nobody has ever batted an eyelid about that.

I would describe Ruth Davidson as economically conservative but socially liberal. She's on board with the Conservative ethos of low taxation and far less state services, but voted Remain and supports gay marriage.

Most centrist than May, probably.

i agree with you scottishdiem. A lot of independence supporters have lost sight of the reason they want independence. Instead of giving the SNP a free pass and performing mental gymnastics to defend the council tax freeze, 50p tax rate etc as progressive policies they should be lobbying the SNP to use the powers they have to make scotland a better place.

If rather than waving flags and singing songs about being free those 17,000 people marched on Bute house and demanded Sturgeon actually introduce some progressive policies that redistribute wealth then Scotland would be moving towards being the type of country they want. Such a lot of wasted time, money energy and passion.