They’re much more predisposed to take a victim at their word these days
Where on EARTH are you getting that from?! There are at least 3 FORCES who've been caught not even recording reports made by potential victims of vawg!
Well I could base it on the College of Policing’s own guidance that says officers should take a victim’s complaint at face value yea cos that translates to real life! See above paragraph!
The fact is you cannot possibly know the truth op. You weren't there, you're only getting his side and you don't know her at all!
There are many rapists and abusers who are perfectly capable of behaving "respectfully" in their relationships, hell there are serial killers that managed this!
Statistically, chances are she is telling the truth. There are VERY few cases of false accusation, yes they happen on occasion but they are very very rare.
The police generally are pretty poor at acting in such cases ("date rape") and so I'm thinking that
A she must have been very convincing to even get them to investigate and quite honestly if there was even a HINT of mental illness in her history that's fairly unlikely
B the rules and regs are such these days that there needs to be pretty good evidence before they can arrest someone
Plus all the he thought he was guaranteed sex but calmed it down just so they could talk, yeah right yea I must admit I'm not buying that one either
You can't even be sure you've seen all the messages, it's very easy to delete both hers and his, and it's even possible to edit them if you have the know how. Or even set up a false message stream using a different mobile number you have no way of knowing what is her correct number and I'm assuming they were shown to you as "from accusers name"? Very easy to falsify for your perusal, not so much for the police they have ways of verifying more deeply.
His being "consistent" is meaningless
Glad to see you acknowledge her "inconsistency" could well be related to her being traumatised.
I would like to think he doesn’t pray on vulnerable. He has a history of going out with people who have past issues
Well that's a contradiction isn't it? By definition if they have "past issues" they are vulnerable
He may have treated you well BECAUSE he knew you had no "past issues" and therefore if he'd behaved badly he'd have had no way to deflect blame or deny. It's common for women and girls with "past issues" not to be believed in such cases.
just because it might seem that the accuser is mentally unwell, or malicious, doesn’t mean she is.
Also even if an accuser is mentally unwell, doesn't mean they're lying or wrong
If you can be supportive as a friend without necessarily dismissing the likely possibility he is guilty then that's one thing, it doesn't sound as if that's the case. I think if you knew for certain he was guilty you'd be backing right off. For your sake you need to be careful you don't give too much of yourself such that if it emerges he is guilty you can't cope with the aftermath, which is something I think most people would struggle with.
Again, statistically chances are he's guilty.
Another thing to bear in mind - many sex attackers don't BELIEVE themselves they are guilty. There was a study I think in Canada where a large group of men were posed a number of questions where sexual harassment and assault scenarios up to and including rape were presented without the crime being named and the majority of respondents admitted to having done such things themselves but didn't recognise themselves as abusers/rapists. There was also a Reddit group (now deleted) which consisted of men telling their own personal recollections of having committed sexual assault again up to and including rape but not "realising" at the time of committing the offence. They were speaking of their having sort of epiphanies where they realised they HAD committed such offences and their feelings about this.
There is still a LOT of work to be done in educating about consent, not just boys and men. Regularly on this site there are women posting questioning whether an incident was assault, because they don't really understand what is/isn't consensual, because they are traumatised and don't want to admit they've been assaulted (usually because the perpetrator is their partner/spouse), because they are living in a patriarchal and misogynistic society that prioritised men's desires over women's safety...
It's a huge problem.
Beware the self described "nice guy" which it sounds like this guy tends to be?
A saviour complex doesn't make him a nice guy, or even a vulnerable one necessarily. It's a mental disorder because it's not a normal way to behave and in many cases is attached to narcissistic tendencies too. It's certainly not healthy!
From all you've said about him, I'm inclined to believe her.