Meeting someone by chance in "real life" is to OLD as waiting for someone to offer you a job is to applying for an advertised vacancy.
I.E. You'll have a lot better luck meeting someone if you're fishing in a pond which is comprised solely of people who want to meet someone.
If you don't like the online element, then go for things like speed dating and singles nights. But if you just join various groups and wait for the perfect partner to drop into your lap, you're in for a long wait, statistically speaking.
Let's say you're a straight woman in the 34-44 age bracket, and you want to date men in the same age range. You join some sort of hobby/social group which appeals equally to men and women in that age range, with no outliers (which is unlikely, but go with it.)
Let's say the group size is 20. That means there will be 10 men. Let's assume 1 gay man, presuming the group topic isn't anything totally hetero
So that leaves 9.
Of those, 51% will be married or cohabiting, so that leaves 4 men (rounding used since you can't have 0.4 of a person hanging around!)
OK, so of the general male population, what percentage of those would you generally find attractive? How many of the men you meet would you think "Hmm, if he asked me out I'd probably say yes"? For me it's probably less than 1 in 20, but I'm a picky devil, so let's say for the sake of argument that it's 1 in 4 for most women.
So of that social group, there's a probability that 1 man will be attractive to you, and single, and straight.
Now what are the odds of him a) actually wanting a relationship and b) you being his type? I'd put a) at no better than 50% odds. B) is very difficult to quantify but even if he is attracted to 25% of women (so the same figure we used above to determine your attraction to him) there is no guarantee that your attracting factors will intersect.
So for this group of 20 people, the likelihood of there being a suitable partner for you is 1 in 32. So you'd need to join 32 groups of that size and demographic mix to meet one person who you would be interested in dating and who would be interested in dating you. (And then you might go on one date and it would be crap anyway!)
(Data on single vs married/cohabiting men from 2011 census)
Soooo let's apply those factors to joining a dating site.
I'm going to take these figures from match.com for a specific geographical area and age range. I've gone with 30 miles out from a specific postcode, which may be a lot for some people but is what I'd usually select.
That's come back with 675 results. However, only about 400 of those have been online within the last month, so let's narrow it to that.
These will all be straight men (or bi men looking for women) so we don't need to calculate for that.
I've also removed all the ones with no photo, so that should weed out the majority of married/partnered men who are cheating.
We already know that all these men WANT to date, so we don't need to apply that probability either.
So all we have left is the attraction factor. Let's go with my 1 in 4 assumption above again, for both me and him. So the combined probability of finding someone I am attracted to and who is also attracted to me, within this pool of 375 men, is 1 in 16. That leaves me a whopping 23 potential partners! In order to get the same amount of potential partners from meet-up groups, I'd need to attend 736 groups. Sounds exhausting!
Thank you for attending this lecture on "Pocket's Theory of Dating Probability"
My book is on sale in the foyer 