Archers thread #171: Harvest's nearly over – but will George ever reap what he has sown? Discuss The Archers here.

[Gasp0deTheW0nderD0g]

Thank you, @PseudoBadger, for kicking off this long, long series of Archers threads.

All views on The Archers welcome here! New blood welcomed, and of course we are always delighted to welcome back former or occasional listeners/posters. We don't all agree on all points, although we do mostly try to be civil about it. Most of us are posting tongue in cheek a lot of the time, so don't worry about revealing that you'd have been delighted with a hand-painted squirrel tray for your 40th, as shown below, or other unusual views.

Spoilers: not on this thread, please! We don't wait for the omnibus to discuss the weeknight episodes, but we do try our best to avoid cross-contamination from https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/radio_addicts/4636789-the-archers-spoilers-thread-7-cant-wait-for-702pm-join-us-here, where spoilers are positively welcomed!

For newer listeners, lurkers or those who just have no idea what we're talking about, @DadDadDad has created this useful thread: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/radio_addicts/3557323-For-Archers-fans-a-guide-to-acronyms-on-the-long-running-discussion-threads-and-any-other-meta-thread-questions-you-may-have - BOOP point for him! (See thread for explanation.)

All I have to say about current storylines for now is that I want the George Alice crash stuff to come to a resolution, sooner rather than later, and I also want to hear very little indeed of Alistair, Denise and Paul maundering on. More of Jakob would be very welcome. His brother can come back any time too.

I now declare this thread open for business!

I do think there are lots of non-vegan people who are quite happy to eat vegan products as long as they taste good, howeverAgreed. A lot of “normal” dishes are vegan anyway. There used to be an Indian restaurant in Leeds which was always packed,despite being veggie - this was back in the 90s when vegeterianism in Leeds was very niche. I think people are quite happy with a meat free and vegan dish, it’s the “vegan bacon” “vegan burger” that they’re more suspicious of.

but with lots of vegan cakes you can’t tell the difference I hope so! I’ve got to make one this weekend

The answer isn't really statistical though. The answer is simply it's a one off event which however improbable, might happen again.

The die explanation doesn't help that much as there's always a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a particular number.

It’s hard to think of an example to back up the argument being presented, that one near-death experience means you won’t have another. Heart attack, possibly, when one near death experience puts you on a cocktail of drugs that make it less likely that you’ll have another. But generally near death experiences are either independent (like rolling a 6) or due to having an underlying cause (like being an arsonist).

Clive's near death experience chances might be affected by his being a criminal.

Yes, this. It’s a shame a) maths teaching is bad for the majority and b) being poor at maths is accepted in a way that would be unthinkable for literacy, so that those who find delight in maths are regarded with suspicion if not hostility.

I don't know if children were being called Clive in 1972, but they certainly weren't getting called Roy and Brenda when they were born. I remember thinking at the time that it was a very heavy handed and tone deaf attempt by the SW to remind us that the Tuckers were working class and to keep a clear social distinction between them and the Archers - which the Kate/Roy liaison subsequently blew apart.

Mind you, have you ever met anyone called Shula in real life? I can't imagine why that didn't start a trend.

Yes. I'm a '72 baby, and I've worked with at least 3 Clives who may not have been born the same year as me, but were around my age. (Two were at the same job, which can get confusing.) And yet, despite having known Clives my own age, I've always thought of it more of a Dad name, i.e. for dads of those of us born early '70s.

Independence or dependence of two events is a statistical, ie mathematical, concept.

If you ever come across a Nigel you can be 99% sure they were born in the 1950s.

That answer depends on the concept that the two occurrences are unrelated, that one event occurring doesn’t change the probability of another event occurring. That’s not always true. Sometimes the first event makes the second one less likely, sometimes the other way round.

The point about the die isn’t the actual probability of getting a particular number, it’s the same independence principle, that throwing a 6 once doesn’t make it any more or less likely that you’ll throw-a 6 next time.

I do think there are lots of non-vegan people who are quite happy to eat vegan products as long as they taste good, however. Perhaps with something as specific as a cream cake people will want the real thing

I think this is the nub of it. I happily eat vegan meals (although I prefer them to be made of vegetables and other real food rather than UPF substitutes), but I wouldn't touch a croissant, éclair, or sponge cake without dairy. At a push, I'd try a vegan fruit cake or similar, but it's very limiting.

Around here, the vegan cake market is largely dominated by Indian shops (many Hindus and Sikhs don't eat eggs, and some Muslims won't eat dairy unless it's certified halal). Maybe Fallon could go in with Aunty Satya.

I’m unclear why this was relevant to a discussion of Clive though

i’m vegetarian and the rise of vegan has irritated me no end as I like cheese and eggs!

the worst vegan food are the burgers with vegetable mush in the bun

and vegan cakes are ok but I’ve never had one that can be described as decadent

I would think that while a person's chance of near-death experiences in general may be 1 in 6 (or whatever the non-dice equivalent is,) for individuals it must vary. Some have particular health conditions. Or t do high-adventure type activities, however safety conscious they are, for example.

I have a friend who has a wealth of stories about how he has nearly died, including a diving accident, a parachute canopy not fully inflating, being caught in a major storm when sailing, and other tales (which aren't made up.) I have done some adventurous things in my life, including a parachute jump, but probably the nearest I've come to death has been crossing the road without looking properly and a speeding car coming past before I was back on the pavement.

So Clive's odds are probably increased by mixing with people who may have unlicensed firearms (and not balk at using them,) plus his arson attempts etc. Of course, he could just be referring to something like having had high blood pressure or he might just be talking bollocks to try and get one over on everyone else.

Sorry to keep banging on about maths/stats, but I feel strongly about it. There are so many discussions where people say “what does it matter if you’ve got a maths qualification unless you’re doing a STEM degree? As long as you can add up your change. Nobody else needs maths in real life”. But this is often based on a failure to recognise maths when they meet it, and leads people to make illogical decisions.

I can't believe going vegan is the best way to make a success of Fallon's new venture. Having vegan options, yes. Going solely vegan, no.

I have had some very tasty vegan baked goods, but also some rubbish ones. And if I am ever in need of a bit of unnecessary indulgence I will always opt for the cake/pastry with the maximum amount of butter, cream and free-range eggs. Vegan is just not going to cut it for me in those circumstances.

I don't totally understand how the charging station will work, but I assume people will have a coffee while waiting 30 minutes or so for their car to charge. So something of a captive market I guess, which may help Fallon a bit.

She may also be thinking that people with electric cars are more likely to be vegan-friendly eco warriors, but I read recently that they are in fact more likely to be new technology early adopters and not to be motivated by saving the environment. (My DS falls into both groups and loves his electric car but he is not 100% pure in his eating habits and would always opt for a croissant made with butter.)

vegan cakes are ok but I’ve never had one that can be described as decadent

Oh, I have. A rich, moist chocolate affair, made for someone's birthday on a yoga retreat. I did have the recipe at one point, but I don't think I have any more. Vegan food can be really good, and have nothing to do with UHP fake meat substitutes. I reckon if done well (linking with Kate etc,) it could do okay, but it will depend on storyline requirements...

i’m vegetarian and the rise of vegan has irritated me no end as I like cheese and eggs! Yes, I’ve seen the complaint that restaurants are “killing two birds with one stone” by having vegan options on the menu without any vegetarian options.

@EBearhug Yes, exactly. The underlying probability of a near death experience may differ from person to person, but the events can still be statistically independent. So a higher chance of a near death experience, but having had one doesn’t make it any more or less likely that they’ll have another. It’s as if one person is playing with a normal die, with a 1 in 6 chance of a 6, and another person is playing with an icosohedral die so only a 1in 20 chance of a 6. The first person is more likely to throw a 6, but their chance if throwing a second one is still 1 in 6.

But if one of those people throws a six, they are more likely to be the person with a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a six...so having thrown one 6 does make it more likely that you'll throw another.

In my experience, if you ever hear anything on the radio that you happen to know anything about, they are nearly always talking bollocks.
This even applies to the Archers and agriculture.

I know a Brenda probably born late 1960s/ early 1970s and 2 Roys probably born early 70s. It's unusual but it happens.

I know three Nigels, two born in the 1960s and one in the 1970s. One of them gave his son Nigel as a middle name in the 2000s.

I know a Nigel who was born in the late 1960s. It's a name I've always liked but I gather most people hate it or find it risible, so it's all but extinct now. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-41430087

Not many Clives around. https://www.ukbabynames.com/boys/clive

Also, I like a milky coffee and if I went in somewhere and the only option were the eco unfriendly nut milks i wouldn’t buy.

Has she done any market research?