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Original poster

Do you think house prices will return to 2004 levels? Or, what percentage drops are you predicting?

173 replies

WideWebWitch · 06/09/2008 10:50

What appears to be the house of our dreams is in the paper this week and we could afford it if we got the price down by 30%.

I know I've been banging on about expecting 30% drops by 2009 but if were to offer 30% under asking that would be what it was worth in 2004 (and current owners paid for it) according to Zoopla.

So, 30%, realistic or in my dreams?

OP posts:
paddingtonbear1 · 06/09/2008 10:55

We bought our house in 2005. It's not increased in value at all since then - worth the same as we paid, if not slightly less. So I don't think it's unrealistic, especially if it's in a higher price bracket. Might be worth finding out how desperate they are to move?
Houses round here aren't really selling, and I bet those that do go for a reduced price (and that's why they sold).

nikos · 06/09/2008 12:04

Soke to an agent today who said prices will continue to drop until 2010. We've just bought though as were desperate to get out of rented (we relocated and have rented our own house out). Because we were chain free we got a hefty reduction. My feeling is there are very few buyers around who can proceed. They might get a mortgage but can't sell their own property. What's your position? If you are chain free I would say 30% under was very reasonable.
It will depend on how quick the seller wants to sell. We looked at houses that had been on for a year at the same price. Totally unrealistic.
Good luck. I'm really glad we've bought and think bizarrely it can be a good time to buy if you hunt for a bargain that suits you.

Original poster
WideWebWitch · 06/09/2008 12:29

thank you both. Nikos, we are renting atm and will potentially have a substantial deposit (FIL offering us some money). We offered 14% under asking for a house a year ago and it's still on the market.

Yes, I don't know if it's filtered through to sellers that they won't get the ridiculous prices they would have done a year or two ago.

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nikos · 06/09/2008 12:38

If your vendor wants to move quickly I would go in around 35% under so you have some room to negotiate. You are in a really strong position, I was told people who can move quickly are like golddust at the moment. Where is the house and what is it on for? It really comes down to finding how much the vendor wants to sell. That will dictate how long they are willing to sit without reducing.

lalalonglegs · 06/09/2008 12:46

Is the asking price realistic or based on what they would have got a year ago? If it's just on the market I think it is unlikely they will take a 30% hit straight away. Best to go and see it, impress on agent you are keen, put in your offer and then be prepared to wait, possibly a good long while. They don't have to take your offer but it will look better and better value the longer it is on market.

Original poster
WideWebWitch · 06/09/2008 12:52

Not sure how long it's been on but has def been in a paper a while, it's just that it#s only recently become a possibility for us due to fil#'s offer.

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Twiglett · 06/09/2008 12:57

can you propertysnake it to see how lnog it's been on?

Original poster
WideWebWitch · 06/09/2008 12:59

Actually, don't estate agents have to tell me if I ask? Seem to remember they do. Just looked at propertysnake for our postcode and there's one 25% drop, which is encouraging.

OP posts:
Twiglett · 06/09/2008 13:02

god I just propertysnaked and there's a house near us that has dropped 100K in 1 month

Chocolateteapot · 06/09/2008 13:09

Can you download property bee and see if there is any data on there about it? It tracks when it is put on rightmove then any changes. But I think someone has to has to have made a previos search on the postcode with property bee downloaded for it to show.

Twiglett · 06/09/2008 13:15

I think emotionally they won't accept the same price that they paid 4 years ago .. can you increase by 10K so they make something (obviously negotiate up to there)

Original poster
WideWebWitch · 06/09/2008 13:16

Yes Twig, think you have a point. It also depends on why they're selling etc.

OP posts:
Original poster
WideWebWitch · 06/09/2008 13:16

Don't know propertybee, thanks though, will look.

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paddingtonbear1 · 06/09/2008 14:39

does seem to depend which area you're in... properties round here have dropped by max 10%. maybe that's why they're not selling!
where my SIL has been looking, down in Bristol, prices there have dropped by up to 30%.
If I was selling now, and needed to move, I'd gladly accept what I paid in 2005!

noddyholder · 06/09/2008 16:55

Have just bought at about 275 off so prob 2003-4 price.haven't discussed on here as have 2 weeks to exchange and don't want to jinx it.Agent has admitted that unless prices drop a minmum of 25 the market won't budge.

KatieDD · 06/09/2008 20:35

I think 40% drops are more than likely, 2001 ish prices although tbh I sold a house in 2004 and it really didn't go up any more beyond that so in some areas 2004 was the peak.

1dilemma · 06/09/2008 23:15

I think we'll get at least 50% off peak ASKING prices
I think where we are down to about 2000 levels that woudl still leave most properties unaffordable for most people.
You have to remember theeasy supply of money which pushed prices so high recently has gone gone gone

Well done noddy you must be pleased wiht that drop!

paddingtonbear1 · 06/09/2008 23:34

I might add, what I paid in 2005 was 30,000 less than their original asking price (which was, admittedly waay more than the house was worth)...

noddyholder · 06/09/2008 23:34

not 275 slip of the finger should say 27% off asking for this year which was already about 10 off what it would have been last summer so am pleased as renting is grim where i am

1dilemma · 06/09/2008 23:36

lol

(did kind of wonder just how much you were paying )

lalalonglegs · 07/09/2008 10:16

I've got a feeling that even during country's worst housing slump (early 1990s) prices only fell by about 30% and that was with peak interest rates of 15% so I'm not convinced we will see 50% drops.

Just to throw cat among pigeons did anyone see this report in the Guardian yesterday. It'll all be OK by 2010...

nkf · 07/09/2008 10:23

When the prediction is 255 off, what price are they referring to?

KatieDD · 07/09/2008 10:38

lalalong legs you are definately wrong because my uncle sold his house in Walsall for 50% less and there were television programs about people who lost more than that in London.
With respect the media has caused 90% of this problem with the property ladder/location, location, location Daily Mail headlines etc so them saying it'll all be ok again by 2010 doesn't hold much water with me.

Upwind · 07/09/2008 10:45

Try not to set your heart on this house, but no harm in putting in an offer for what you think it is realistically worth.

I do think house prices will drop below 2004 levels, and I don't think a 50%+ drop is incredible after 200% increases. But that is just my opinion and, like anyone else's, should be taken with a grain of salt! Employment rates, commodity prices, monetary inflation etc etc will all affect house prices and trying to predict what those effects will be is a fools' errand.

noddyholder · 07/09/2008 11:02

50% off definitely possible and in fact probable if the banks stick to their strict lending criteria prices will have to fall to accomodate that.If you earn 30k and can only borrow 90 thats the end of the road for what you can afford so prices will adjust accordingly.I think 2010 is when they estimate falls will stop but no return to 2007 peak prices before 2017 ish.