Do you think house prices will return to 2004 levels? Or, what percentage drops are you predicting?

[WideWebWitch]

What appears to be the house of our dreams is in the paper this week and we could afford it if we got the price down by 30%.

I know I've been banging on about expecting 30% drops by 2009 but if were to offer 30% under asking that would be what it was worth in 2004 (and current owners paid for it) according to Zoopla.

So, 30%, realistic or in my dreams?

[CatMandu]

noddy - home counties. Was outed by someone in rl recently, so I'm being alittle vague.

[NotAnOtter]

in the last crash house prices here stablilised but did not drop

look at the likes of Clifton in Bristol i the early 1990's

the winners were the folk who rode the storm through negative equity and all

they hung on in there and now LOADED

[noddyholder]

Those in the home counties are not immune They like to talk the market up.No matter what you think your house is/was worth ultimately the banks decide and then everyone has to fall into line We are heading back to original salary multiples and that will correct things swiftly and allow the banks to lend again

[noddyholder]

But even the big financial wigs aer saying we will never see the like of these increases again.There will be legislation against it.The party is over

[oranges]

what do you mean noddy? what kind of legislation?

[CatMandu]

I think we will all have to go back to leading our lives in the way that our parents did. Saving up for things, refering to credit as the 'never never', and not wasting. Our generation will find it hard though, we've had a good few years of having it all and will now have to learn how to be more sensible.

[NotAnOtter]

it has all been said before

[Jampot]

my dad wouldnt even have a car whilst he had a mortgage so he managed to pay it off 10 years early through scrimping and saving. Wouldnt have credit either. we dont have credit either luckily

[noddyholder]

The clocks are definitely going to turn back wrt to family finances and expectations.Some people with very average salaries have been living like rock stars!

[lovelygal]

Our house is worth 10k less than what we paid in Nov. 2006.
Apparently our area is in a bubble and has been less affected than surrounding areas.

I've spoke to a number of EA's recently, from different areas and they all said they expected another drop over the christmas period but expected the market to start recovering next year.

[lovelygal]

We will never go back to living how our parents live.
Debt is an accectable part of our society now and most people will always borrow rather than save

[noddyholder]

All teh agents preach the recovery next year mantra otherwise where would they be?I think recovery before 2015 is unlikely It took 10 yrs to climb this high and will be years before house prices recover.Apparently the best time to buy is when you see the first price rise after a crash!If yuo can wait that long

[noddyholder]

I don't think we will have a choice.Credit will not be available like it was and debt will become less acceptable as the reality of what it can cause come to light.A lot of people do live like that its just not so reported

[lovelygal]

Our house has only dropped 10k I cant see how it would 10 years to reach that price again.

[oranges]

you never really know how much your house is worth till you sell it. Estate agents have to talk up the market - its their jobs. There is a huge dfference between asking prices and the prices actually paid at the moment, and ea's don't tell you that.

[noddyholder]

How do you know it has only dropped 10k?You only truly know when you come to sell it.And there is no way of knowing how much further.Prices will probably be half of 2007 peak by 2010 with ne recovery before 2017.

[lovelygal]

We have just sold for 10k less.

[noddyholder]

It is more about percentages.You are lucky to get 10k off 2006 price well done it will be 2004 prices soon

[lovelygal]

5% loss

[oranges]

well done - that's a really good deal. round here, even the estate agents are telling buyers to offer 15 per cent less on houses that would otherwise be out their price rage.

[noddyholder]

5% off purchase price in 2006 How much was it worth at peak?That is how the drop is calculated.

[lovelygal]

Its sold for 20-25k less than the 2007 high according to the EA.

He said we were lucky we didnt buy last year. We actually moved into the house in 2007 but brought in 2006 so I consider us lucky as well.

[noddyholder]

So the 25k is the figure you use when working out the percentage fall not the reduction from purchase.

[lovelygal]

I see your point noddy.

The 2007 figure is irrelevant to me though. All that matters to me how much I brought for and how much I sold for.

[noddyholder]

I know it is but stll shows prices are lower than 2006 at least so predictiona are looking right.Are you buying again?