Do you think house prices will return to 2004 levels? Or, what percentage drops are you predicting?

[WideWebWitch]

What appears to be the house of our dreams is in the paper this week and we could afford it if we got the price down by 30%.

I know I've been banging on about expecting 30% drops by 2009 but if were to offer 30% under asking that would be what it was worth in 2004 (and current owners paid for it) according to Zoopla.

So, 30%, realistic or in my dreams?

[Sandals12]

@TwoBlueFish makes interesting reading...is this how things are heading as it seems no-one is buying atm and vendors reluctant to reduce prices

[TwoBlueFish]

ZOMBIE THREAD from 2008

[Sandals12]

Will we see history repeating itself...different circumstances but it was easy borrowing due to low interest rates and now it's not..

[holidaysoon]

ah well good luck girls (!!!girls? sorry)

I'm gritting my teeth and wondering whether I can do another 3 years in here!

[dinny]

yeah, want our next move to be the last one for a good while - this house was amazng, needed tons of work but would have bought before we want to as it was so suitable. except have been scared off now!!

we'll wait until something perfect comes up...prob 2009/10

[noddyholder]

I have bought at what seems to be 2002 price for the road so very happy.But i agree don't buy til 2010 if you need a large ish mortgage or now if you can get a good deal.We had a set figure as we wanted to be better off than in rented plus we are paying cash which has made a difference to how low we offer.

[holidaysoon]

noddy have you bought one then?
dinny are you moving for the long term IYSWIM? at least you found out before you spent any money
critter can I ask where that was?
I'm wiht katie was saying tonight I think it will be a few years befoe we buy

[dinny]

right, purchase all off - travellers in the field next door have put in planning for a permanent site

afraid I am a NIMBY at heart

[sunshineandshowers]

The official indices show that we are very close to being at 04 levels. The average house price today from Nationwide is £160k (approx). House prices in summer 04 averages £150k. At the current rate of decline we are expected to be there come December 08.

[KatieDD]

"Debt is an accectable part of our society now and most people will always borrow rather than save"

Which is why the banks are up shit creek at the moment.

Good luck with your offer dinny, we're waiting for the bottom 2011 I think.

[figroll]

"Debt is an accectable part of our society now and most people will always borrow rather than save"

Speak for yourself!

[dinny]

oooh, lucky you, NH

dh is adamant what we're going to offer is a good price but I want it so much want to offer asking, iykwim

dh says that would be madness (see my other thread)

[noddyholder]

well he rejected first offer,Buy to let landlord with about 6 houses in one area and then the one we wanted which was on its own in a different area iykwim.Agent advised him to take it we also noticed that he had it to let with a few agents and no takers plus his other properties not full either.We found out what the last house in the street went for too (it was next door so a good bet) and the agent did the rest we wouldn't budge.

[dinny]

I think vendor will be v offended but we have been doing our homework and think vendor in difficult situ

did your vendor tell you to get lost initially?

[noddyholder]

good luck dinny we got that sort of amount off so hope you do too.

[dinny]

we're going to offer tomorrow

75k less than property is on market for....

[hattyyellow]

Thanks all so much for your help with our shall we make a low offer debate - critter they haven't done the property up as it's their second home - their sons were at boarding school about half an hour from us and they wanted a second home to be able to spend weekends with them. (The sheer amount of wealth involved in that last sentance is quite staggering!) I think they weren't bothered about how it looked, as long as it had space and basic facilities..

We are trying to figure out the max we can borrow, particulary as we are both self-employed and therefore vulnerable to gaps in earning - and we will test the water with a cheeky offer - will let you know how we get on.

It's fascinating reading everyones stories of the amount of sluggishness there seems to be in the property market..

[noddyholder]

critter that is scary.

[critterjitter]

I drove through a really desirable area yesterday (wealthy London suburb). Two of the estate agents had closed down (one is part of a national chain connected to an online property search engine!), as had a solicitors, a homeware shop and two coffee places (which had only started up last year). The place was strewn with TO LET signs and boarded up shops.

Couldn't believe the difference to last year - when it was booming. Then the only signs were SOLD ones, with everyone prowling around in their glossy 4x4s and mums with their boogaloos everywhere stopping for coffee. What a difference a year makes! It had the distinct feel of the early 1990's!

[noddyholder]

You are right Nowhere is immune this time.It has nothing to do with desirability and all about finance

[MrsMigginsPieShop]

I have no idea why the press are being so circumspect - anecdotal evidence is of vastly sharper price drops then these tiny percentages we keep hearing about.

I live in a really fab flat in one of the nicest parts of Edinburgh and it has dropped 20% from the peak a few years ago. The agent guy said he was having a nightmare trying to get vendors to accept the truth about their property's 'value'. Tears before bedtime for many I think!

Edinburgh has traditionally been 'immune' to price drops as there's so much demand, but this time we're not getting away with it. I predict further falls. There is double the amount of property on the market and half the number of sales compared to last year.

I don't mind the drops if the next rung upwards drops down towards us too! Here's hoping. Lower prices all round would be the ideal outcome, and much fairer for everybody.

[noddyholder]

Good idea!

[lovelygal]

Yes we have brought a cheaper house because houses are cheaper where we are buying.

Have a better house, nicer area and most importantly a smaller mortgage.

Thats why we were prepared to take a hit on our house as we knew we would be better off in the long run.

[noddyholder]

I know it is but stll shows prices are lower than 2006 at least so predictiona are looking right.Are you buying again?

[lovelygal]

I see your point noddy.

The 2007 figure is irrelevant to me though. All that matters to me how much I brought for and how much I sold for.