Do you think house prices will return to 2004 levels? Or, what percentage drops are you predicting?

[WideWebWitch]

What appears to be the house of our dreams is in the paper this week and we could afford it if we got the price down by 30%.

I know I've been banging on about expecting 30% drops by 2009 but if were to offer 30% under asking that would be what it was worth in 2004 (and current owners paid for it) according to Zoopla.

So, 30%, realistic or in my dreams?

[hattyyellow]

Wow, that's encouraging critterjitter!

I am amazed at the difference in attitude in agents from when we last bought. We were supposed to do another viewing on Saturday but when we turned up there'd been a mix-up with the keys and we couldn't get in.

Since then we have had 3 separate phone calls from the agent, apologising profusely and trying to pin us down to a new viewing time. I don't remember that kind of grovelling going on a few years ago!

[hattyyellow]

expat that's interesting, do you mean it's less and less likely that prices will drop dramatically?

Can I ask your reasoning for prices not dropping?

[noddyholder]

Give it a go.We started this journey to being mortgae free last year when our money could only afford a flat in a decent area and now 14 months on we have a good sized period house in a lovely road so it can be done.

[expatinscotland]

well, hatty, here in Scotland, things just aren't shifting. no one's really dropping the prices, the home just sits on the market for months and months and months.

our HV was thinking of selling their current home and moving to another in the same village, but she and her husband (a spark) simply can't qualify for enough of a mortgage to buy the type of home they want (fairly modest). and because no one seems to have to drop the price all that much, they just don't sell it.

so what you see is the prices are still so inflated a lot of folks can't get the mortgage they need to buy the place, but at the same time the sellers can obviously afford to hang onto the place because they don't drop the price more than a smidge.

so instead there's just a whole lot of nothing going on.

[hattyyellow]

Ahh I see, so it's kinda checkmate?

I think the owners of this house may be in a similar position, I guess if you want to sell your second home to buy a second home in France instead, you're clearly not desperate to sell! .

[expatinscotland]

yep, it's checkmate around here.

LOADS of stuff on the market now.

nothing really moving except some at the very bottom end of the market (one bed flats, caravans, etc.).

our landlords had originally thought to sell this place upon their return next year, but after taking advice from their solicitor, they've decided instead to fix it up and stay put, because it's a middle market place (about £250-£300K0 and so very unlikely to sell, especially given its location.

[MrsGuyOfGisbourne]

Nobody knows - agents who talk 'knowledgeably' about 2010 have no better idea than any of us. Its obvious that poeple who want to sell are dropping massive amounts, those who don't want to drop just aren't moving. The motgage situation is likley to get worse, so that can only have a negative effect on houses that must be sold, but won't have any effect if the owners don't have to.
imho, even when the financial crisis eventually blows over, the era of cheap easy credit for all is gone - and probabaly at that point the oil crisis will be full-on, so any houses not on a main rail line won't be worth much anyway

[WideWebWitch]

Hiya hatty, no, no more thoughts but I think we should wait longer tbh. And I am jittery about increasing our outgoings with a mortgage when our rent is so cheap. We could do it on one salary if we don't buy and that is v attractive to me atm.

FIL just put an offer of £190k CASH on a poxy bungalow on at £239k and the mad fools rejected it. I reckon they'll come crawling back in 3 months.

[SueW]

When we bought our flat in 1993 for 67k, it had been sold two years previously for £120k.

Is there any reason why prices couldn't drop similarly (45%)?

[critterjitter]

Hattyellow

I bought for 250k (2005) and sold for 310k (peak 2007). I know that similar properties around that area are now on at around 280-295 (asking price, not selling price). It was a prime London suburb.

Given that these are similar timings (for the vendors purchase of their house in 2005), it looks like your intended house has 'quite a bit of froth' on the price. I'd be looking at trying to get your intended place at around 250k (start offers below). They may just be relieved to get out of the market with the money they put into the house. It would be interesting to know why they haven't done anything to fix up the house?

[paddingtonbear1]

Hattyellow,

I'd second what critterjitter has said.
We bought our house in 05 for 245,000. It had already been reduced a fair bit from the previous year.
If we had to sell now, we wouldn't even expect to get that for it!
Several properties on our estate have been up for sale for over a year now. One guy who bought a house and did it up, gave up and rented it instead. Others seem to be going through the different estate agents, but still no sale. One EA has shut up shop in our suburb.

A house near dd's school, on a once-popular road (houses used to shift there within a couple of weeks), is still for sale after a year.

My dad says it's the same round his way.

[Jampot]

i popped into a local EA today to speak to the manager (who I know personally not just from looking at houses). They said that prices were now at 2005 levels and would drop further no question.

[noddyholder]

jampot where do you live?

[dinny]

70% in total perhaps

[dinny]

the house we are a bit interested in is on market for 80k less than it was bought for in late 2006

[NotAnOtter]

you are joking - i would not dream of putting in an offer 35% below asking

why?

[dinny]

NAO - because asking prices are way out of kilter

[edam]

www, you are kidding! Idiots. FIL probably had a lucky escape there, your links showed he could get a lot more for his money.

[Jampot]

im in solihull, west midlands noddy

[noddyholder]

Why are we all so scared of offering what we want to pay?I offered 200 for a 300k house eventually got it for 213.fell through after survey and then offered 225 for a 305k house and it has been accepted.With the state of the market better to get 35% less this yesr as half price next!BOGOF

[CatMandu]

We've been considering selling, but decided against. The general feeling is that prices will reach the absolute low this time next year and begin to improve in two years.

[oranges]

can i ask a question here? there'a a gorgeous house on for 775, estate agent already indicated he'll accept 660,000. Anyway they'll get down to 500,000, which is our limit really.

[noddyholder]

catmandu the general feeling where? oranges that is not such a huge drop it may look it now but it will happen

[NotAnOtter]

house prices do not go far under here

nothing like what you are quoting

[noddyholder]

yet