On top of the huge wealth transfers already happening which have already pushed us well beyond the peak point of the laffer curve; in fact that had happened before the 2014 election, as the independent economic studies with large scale data provided to Hunt and subsequently to Reeves by reputable economic institutions and reported even in the likes of the Guardian per the link I posted earlier in the thread.
Your point that these delusionists are forecasting that it will “raise only £800m” is presient, but not for the reasons you seem to think. The assumption it will “raise” this much is not taking into account the behavioural changes that will occur, the reduction in spending that will result, the businesses (particularly tradesmen) that will suffer as a result, and the enormous cost to the Government of fighting very expensive legal battles about this which it is not clear they can evidence without fundamentally changing the way the UK legal system functions and the burden of proof or violating the very structural basis of our laws and property rights going back over 800 years to Magna Carta, which underpin the entirety of the UK economic system and economic stability and the remaining desperately needed FDI.
In reality, the net revenue raised will likely be zero or negative as a result, just like the impact of all of Labour’s previous tax policies because they have decreased economic growth, productivity and business investment resulting in a decrease in tax revenue far greater than the additional revenue extracted, while also simultaneously making GDP per capita lower. So: higher national debt, less money to fund services, higher taxes, more people unemployed, higher welfare costs and lower growth in earnings for everyone. Absolute genius. And then each time another budget comes around they seem puzzled why yet again their actions have created another “black hole”. I guess some people are slow learners.
Nothing will improve until these politicians and the clueless who are still desperately attempting to support them accept the reality of the data about how their policies are making everyone poorer. If they continue implementing yet more of this idiocy on an almost monthly basis then things will continue to spiral downwards ever faster. This is an economic certainty, and why even those who were Burnham’s advocates (Haldane, O’Neill etc) refused to join his Government when he discussed his policy proposals with them: it’s clear to anybody with the faintest clue about economics how disastrous this will be so they did not want to be associated with it and are now so worried they are now publishing warnings publicly in the media about the catastrophic outcomes which will result from his economic approach. This idiotic policy is just more fuel on the same bonfire that Labour are making of what was left of our economy after the carnage caused by the previous Conservative administration.
As you say, even if this idiotic policy WAS to raise the amount they claim it will (it won’t), this won’t make any difference to the UK’s economic woes. It will, however, change the behaviour of the precise increasingly small percentage of people who are propping up the entire UK tax system, which is pretty dangerous and foolish, don’t you think?
Why aren’t they addressing any of the structural problems that actually WILL make a difference to UK living standards across the board and create the conditions for future prosperity? I’ve set out on this thread a detailed and simplified explanation of the obvious measures that need to be taken to put in place a coherent, integrated plan for how to turn the UK economy around and raise GDP per capita, ending 2 decades of constant decline.
The question we should be asking our politicians is why they refuse to take these necessary and obvious steps and are instead condemning everyone to falling living standards in perpetuity while they make TikTok clips about bus fares.